人们，包括这个工作人员，不断问我不同程度的兴奋或惊恐当AI泡沫会爆发。 我会告诉你我对他们说的话：如果我知道，我会做一个改变生命的赌注在市场上，杠杆尽可能，然后，当我赚到钱，去退休在海滩某处。 也许经营猫保护区谁知道呢
请不要问我 AI泡沫何时会爆发
各位
各位
我可以告诉你的是，我感兴趣地阅读了今天上午在彭博的一个故事：“Walll Street CEO, Big Money Managers Depended over AI Risks ”。 2026年香港全球金融领袖投资峰会上，太平洋投资管理公司的首席执行官(Pacific Investment Management Co.，即传奇的债券公司PIMCO)告诉听众，AI市场将出现下滑，“然后事情就会崩溃 ”。
“我们不知道的是定价和经济学将如何演变。”
昂贵的人工智能积聚使债务市场陷入困境——使筹集现金变得更加困难。 但还有更多债务，例如，Meta为债券报价提取了580亿美元订单，预计其报价为150亿至200亿美元，彭博社今天报道了这一点。 Oracle 称星期一，除了现有的巨额承诺外，还需要200亿美元的债券。 Google的母公司Alphabet出售60亿欧元(或约67亿美元)的债券。 甚至Microsoft最近也出售了债券，这是十年来第一次——其中250亿美元。
PIMCO首席执行官——他的名字叫埃马纽埃尔·罗曼(Emmanuel Roman)，但他的工作是这里要紧的——估计AI的建设可以在未来五年创造2万亿美元的资金需求。 美国债券市场总额约为12万亿美元。
我在调查PIMCO 因为它在人工智能行业很有帮助它是2023年首次以CoreWeave芯片为基础融资的金融集团之一。 它从290亿美元的Meta债券中获得了20亿美元的快速纸面收益，意在支持去年的AI建设。 它上个月买了40亿美元的SpaceX债券。 如果PIMCO的CEO公开发出关于泡沫爆发的警报，那就是一个大问题 — — 特别是因为该公司刚刚出售了一堆AI债务。
不仅PIMCO敦促谨慎，阿波罗全球管理(Apollo Global Management)，最近曾与SpaceX讨论过400亿美元的芯片交易，也是AI风险的警告。 阿波罗总统吉姆·泽尔特(Jim Zelter)今天告诉分析家，虽然他期望社会会"在未来使用"更戏剧性的计算力"，并且AI正在迅速改善，但仍然有重大的不确定性。 “我们不知道的是定价和经济学将如何演变。”
Meta债券的利息数额表明，我们并不在市场上居首位。 但有来自中国的报道称其AI泡沫在一段时间前爆裂。 与此同时，华尔街的银行正在自暴自弃地为来自Anthropic的630亿美元债务融资——甚至不是超规模债务。
我说“我不知道”就是这个意思。 但我确实认为，重大的东西 — — PIMCO的罗马式将美国利率的上涨、战争或欧元区危机作为潜在触发因素 — — 可以扭转这一市场。 我们不是在去去的地方。 也许这将会改变；Anthropic的IPO可能会被封锁，但随着更多的人表达谨慎态度——特别是在灾情感知后——党内最好的部分可能已经结束。
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People, including on this staff, keep asking me with varying degrees of excitement or trepidation when the AI bubble will burst. I’ll tell you what I tell them: If I knew that, I would make a life-changing bet on the market, levered up as far as I could, and then, after I made my money, go retire on a beach somewhere. Maybe run a cat sanctuary, who knows.
Please stop asking me when the AI bubble will pop
I’m getting some real mixed messages here, boys!
I’m getting some real mixed messages here, boys!
What I can tell you is that I read with interest a story in Bloomberg this morning: “Wall Street CEOs, Big Money Managers Divided Over AI Risks.” The story itself is a roundup of stuff said at the 2026 Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong. Here’s what caught my attention: The CEO of Pacific Investment Management Co. — that’s PIMCO, the legendary bond firm — told listeners that there’s going to be a downturn in the AI market “and then things are going to break.”
“What we don’t know is how pricing and economics will evolve.”
The astronomically expensive AI buildout has swamped debt markets — making it harder to raise cash. But there’s still more debt coming, and people still want to buy it. For instance, Meta drew $58 billion in orders for a bond offering that’s expected to be $15 billion to $20 billion, Bloomberg reported today. Oracle said Monday it would need another $20 billion in bonds, on top of its existing steep commitments. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, is selling €6 billion (or about $6.7 billion) of bonds. Even Microsoft recently sold bonds, for the first time in a decade — $25 billion of them.
The PIMCO CEO — his name is Emmanuel Roman, but his job is what matters here — has estimated that the AI buildout could create $2 trillion in financing needs over the next five years. The entire total US bond market is about $12 trillion.
I am harping on PIMCO because it has been instrumental in the AI trade. It was among the group of financiers that did the first CoreWeave chip-based financing in 2023. It made a quick $2 billion in paper gains from $29 billion in Meta bonds, meant to support the AI buildout, last year. It bought $4 billion of SpaceX bonds last month. If PIMCO’s CEO is publicly sounding the alarm about a bubble popping, that’s a big deal — especially since the company just sold a bunch of its AI debt.
It’s not just PIMCO urging caution. Apollo Global Management, which lately had been talking with SpaceX about a $40 billion chip deal, is also warning of AI risk. Apollo president Jim Zelter told analysts today that while he expects society will use “dramatically more computing power in the future” and that AI is improving quickly, there is still significant uncertainty. “What we don’t know is how pricing and economics will evolve.”
The sheer volume of interest on Meta’s bonds suggests we are not at the top of the market. But there have been reports from China that its AI bubble burst some time ago. Meanwhile Wall Street banks were tripping over themselves to finance $63 billion in debt from Anthropic — not even a hyperscaler.
This is what I mean when I say “I don’t know.” I do think, though, that something major — PIMCO’s Roman singled out US rate hikes, war, or a eurozone crisis as potential triggers — could flip this market. We’re not in go-go-go territory now. Maybe that will change; it’s possible Anthropic’s IPO will go blockbuster and it’ll be like when someone rolls up to a party that’s running low on beer with a 24-pack. But as more people are expressing caution — and particularly after the disaster at Situational Awareness — the best part of the party might be over.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.