图注：Anthropic CEO阿莫代伊
据知情人士透露，过去几天，机构投资者已向Anthropic及其顾问团队表示，他们认为该公司计划于本月晚些时候进行的IPO估值应在1.5万亿美元至1.6万亿美元左右，远低于近几个月市场上流传的接近2万亿美元的估值。
投资者列出了一系列令人担忧的因素，包括股市波动不定，以及市场对AI投资敞口过大的担忧日益升温。此外，数据中心面临的政治反弹，以及亚马逊和Meta等超大规模云服务商何时能展现AI相关利润的不确定性，也令投资者心存顾虑。
Anthropic尚未最终确定估值目标，仍在考虑计划出售多少股票。在上个月投资者日之后，已有一些投资者向该公司表示，其估值应更接近1.5万亿美元。但是，这是在上周科技股遭遇两位数跌幅之前的事，包括英特尔、Alphabet在内的公司在一系列令人失望的财报后股价大跌。
一些投资者表示，他们相信Anthropic CFO克里希纳·拉奥(Krishna Rao)会设定一个保守的估值，并优先确保IPO投资者能够在股票上市首日获得一波“涨幅”。他们认为，即使Anthropic以约1.5万亿美元的估值上市，其股价也可能在首个交易日结束时推动公司市值升至2万亿美元。埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)旗下SpaceX在6月上市首日大涨30%，但是当时投资者对AI的普遍焦虑尚未形成。
Anthropic计划最早于下周启动面向投资者的路演推介，上市时间预计在感恩节前一周。该公司将在路演启动时公布其希望出售的股份数量和目标价格区间，以此给出目标估值。
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Figure: Anthropic SEA Amodhai
According to well-informed sources, institutional investors have indicated to Anthropic and his team of consultants over the past few days that they believe that the IPO valuation planned by the company later this month should be in the range of $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, well below the nearly $2 trillion valuation that has been circulating in the market in recent months.
Investors listed a number of worrying factors, including volatility in the stock market and the growing concern of the market over excessive exposure to AI. In addition, investors are concerned about the political rebound faced by data centres and the uncertainty about when super-massive cloud service providers, such as Amazon and Meta, will be able to demonstrate AI-related profits.
Anthropic had not yet finalized the valuation target and was still considering the number of shares planned for sale. After last month ' s investor day, some investors have indicated to the company that its valuation should be closer to $1.5 trillion. But this was before the double-digit drop in technology last week, when companies, including Intel and Alphabet, fell sharply after a series of disappointing financial reports.
Some investors indicated that they were confident that Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao would set a conservative valuation and give priority to ensuring that IPO investors were able to obtain a wave of “growths” on the first day of stock listing. They believe that even if Anthropic were to be listed with a valuation of about $1.5 trillion, its share price could drive the company ' s market value to $2 trillion at the end of the first trading day. SpaceX, under the banner of Elon Musk, rose by 30 per cent on the first day of its listing in June, but at that time the general anxiety of investors about AI had not yet developed.
Anthropic plans to launch an investor-oriented road presentation as early as next week, and the listing is expected to take place one week before Thanksgiving. At the commencement of the road show, the company will give a target valuation by disclosing the number of shares it wished to sell and the target price range.
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