文 | 财能圈
10月22日，Meta向美国证券交易委员会提交的三季度10-Q文件显示，公司表外租赁、不可撤销采购合同与云容量采购三项承诺合计最高约8249亿美元，期限最长延伸至2036年。
同一份文件里还有另一组数字。三季度，Meta经营活动现金流327.9亿美元，资本开支349.1亿美元，自由现金流为负21.2亿美元，上年同期为正106.3亿美元。经营现金流已经覆盖不了当年的资本开支。
账单是公开的，缺口也是公开的。记在Meta名下的是一家公司的承诺，但缺的则是整个AI算力投资的钱。
8250亿美元怎么算出来的
这笔账单由三笔承诺构成。
第一笔是表外的经营租赁与融资租赁，3557亿美元。这些租约从起租日算起，最长到2036年，单笔租期在1年到30年之间。
第二笔是截至9月30日的不可撤销短期与长期合同承诺，4545亿美元。其中，2026年内到期的有458.5亿美元，2027年到期的有1214.1亿美元。
第三笔是未来五年的云计算容量采购，最多147亿美元。Meta同时说明，若云厂商将这部分容量转售给第三方，这笔支出可以相应减少。
三项相加，最高约8249亿美元，市场据此将其概称为8250亿美元的十年账单。Meta未在文件中直接使用这一表述。
三个月前，Meta披露的同类承诺约为7000亿美元。三个月增加约1250亿美元。
相比之下，Meta账面长期债务约为809亿美元。表外的扩张速度明显更快，据市场研究机构The Bear Traps Report创始人Larry McDonald的统计，Meta的表外融资规模已从约350亿美元升至约6000亿美元。
此外，这份三季度10-Q文件里还有两处安排值得注意。
一是108.0亿美元货币市场基金被转为受限现金等价物，将在2028年至2030年间分批释放。
二是Meta新设了无投票权的C类股。
当然，这两处安排与资本开支之间是什么关系，Meta未在文件中说明。同期，公司将全年资本开支指引上调至1350亿美元至1450亿美元。账单公开后，讨论很快从金额转向成本。
债市先给这笔钱定了价
事实上AI资本开支大，烧钱很快是整个科技圈的共识。10月21日，黄仁勋在柏林一场活动场边接受CNBC采访时说，目前AI发展中间缺失的环节，是推动这些企业增长所需的营运资金。他还说，资本需求远大于资本供应，这个问题将会得到解决。
博通CEO陈福阳给出了相近的判断，在他看来，资金短缺而非芯片供应是当前最大的制约。
实际上，在黄仁勋说话之前，债市已经先给出了定价。
上周，CoreWeave出现股债双杀。其2031年到期的债券收益率一度升至15%至16%，而这只债券2025年6月发行时的票息为9.675%。其五年期信用违约互换隐含的违约概率超过60%。公司当周股价下跌约25%。
数字上的压力来自两端。CoreWeave债务规模约355亿美元，二季度营收25.75亿美元，净利息支出6.4亿美元，资本开支逾90亿美元，自由现金流为负57亿美元。其全年资本开支指引为350亿美元至390亿美元。
值得一提的是，同一周，另一家算力租赁商拿到了新的钱。10月22日，花旗牵头向Nebius提供35亿美元优先担保融资，期限364天，定价为TermSOFR加2.75%，最高3.50%，用途为数据中心与GPU采购。当日其股价下跌7.3%，收于158.89美元。
这笔钱的成本，高于CoreWeave两年前发行债券时的水平。
与债市形成对照的是一级市场。今年3月，OpenAI完成1220亿美元融资，投后估值8520亿美元。5月，Anthropic完成650亿美元H轮融资，投后估值9650亿美元，超过OpenAI，其年化收入在5月初突破470亿美元。
进一步分析，钱从三条通道进来，成本依次抬高。
第一种，股权，如OpenAI与Anthropic的两轮私募融资。
第二种，公开债券，如CoreWeave在2025年6月发行的9.675%票息债券。
第三种，以资产或合同现金流为担保的债务，如Nebius的35亿美元优先担保融资，其另有超过400亿美元长期合同对应的资产支持融资空间。
其中，成本最高的是第三种，也是今年以来增长最快的一种。
这套成本结构，在中国公司身上换了一种记账方式。
中国公司的账本各有各的读法
反观国内，各家科技巨头对AI的开支也不少。
数据显示，阿里巴巴2026年6月季度的资本开支为676.78亿元，同比增长75%，上年同期为386.76亿元。同期经营活动现金流229.45亿元，自由现金流净流出446.70亿元。
另外，融资同步进行。8月23日，阿里巴巴完成800亿港元配售。
腾讯2026年第二季度资本开支527.84亿元，同比增长176%。上半年合计847.20亿元，同比增长82%。
同期自由现金流为负138亿元。不过，公司在公告中另给了一个口径，剔除算力采购的预付款项后，自由现金流为正376亿元，两者相差514亿元。当期经营活动现金流527亿元，资本开支付款593亿元。
非上市公司的账本更依赖债务。资料显示，9月初，字节跳动敲定一笔296亿美元的银团贷款。这笔贷款初始规模为200亿美元，因认购踊跃扩大至296亿美元，参与银行近30家，中资占比超过六成。其中，工商银行30亿美元，中国银行25亿美元，建设银行15亿美元，汇丰等各15亿美元。
期限为3年，可延长2年，无担保。同期，其资本开支规划上调至最高700亿美元。
同样是烧钱，口径不同，读出来的结论也不同。实际上，腾讯在同一份公告里给出两个自由现金流数字，本身已经说明了这件事。
最后，AI的账已经记到2036年，而能验证它的现金流表只到2026年三季度。
目前尚未公开的是，这些承诺最终由谁来承接，是云厂商转售、是新增债务，还是经营现金流。黄仁勋说资本需求远大于资本供应、这个问题将会得到解决，但解决的方式还没有出现在任何一份披露文件里。
可观察的节点有两个。一个是Meta四季度财报中的自由现金流，另一个是2027年到期的1214.1亿美元合同承诺将如何续接。更早的信号来自债市，在CoreWeave的财报出来之前，其2031年到期债券的收益率已经先给出了定价。
本文由 AI图鉴自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
Man, the financial circle.
On 22 October, a three-quarter 10-Q paper submitted by Meta to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission showed that the company ' s total of three commitments, namely off-the-shelf leasing, irrevocable procurement contracts and cloud-capacity procurement, amounted to approximately $824.9 billion, with the maximum duration extending to 2036.
There is another set of figures in the same document. In the third quarter, there were $32.79 billion in cash flows from Meta ' s operating activities, $34.91 billion in capital expenditure and a negative $2.12 billion in free cash flows, compared to $10.63 billion in the same period the previous year. Operating cash flows already do not cover current year capital expenditures.
The bill is public and the gap is public. It was recorded in Meta as a commitment by a company, but what was missing was the money invested in the whole of AI.
How did you figure out $825 billion?
The bill consists of three commitments.
The first was off-the-shelf operating and financial leases, $3557 million. These leases run from the date of the lease up to 2036, with single leases ranging from one to 30 years.
The second was irrevocable short- and long-term contract commitments of $45.45 billion as at 30 September. Of that amount, $45.85 billion was due in 2026 and $121.4 billion in 2027.
The third was the acquisition of cloud computing capacity over the next five years, up to $14.7 billion. Meta also stated that if the cloud manufacturer resold this capacity to a third party, the expenditure could be reduced accordingly.
The three add up to approximately $824.9 billion, which the market calls a 10-year bill of $825 billion. Meta does not use this expression directly in the document.
Three months ago, Meta disclosed similar commitments of approximately $700 billion. The three-month increase was approximately $12.5 billion.
By contrast, Meta had long-term debt of approximately $80.9 billion. The expansion outside the table has been significantly faster, and, according to Larry McDonald, founder of the market research institute The Bear Trips Report, Meta's outside financing has risen from about $35 billion to about $600 billion.
In addition, there are two further noteworthy arrangements in this three-quarter 10-Q document.
The first was the conversion of $10.80 billion of money market funds to restricted cash equivalents, to be released in batches between 2028 and 2030.
Second, Meta created a new non-voting category C unit.
Of course, the relationship between the two arrangements and capital expenditure was not explained in the document. During the same period, companies increased their annual capital expenditure guidelines to between $135.0 billion and $145.0 billion. Once the bill was made public, the discussion quickly shifted from value to cost.
The bond market first set the price for the money.
In fact, AI's capital is expensive, and burning money is quickly the consensus of the entire scientific community. On 21 October, Huang In-hoon, in an interview with the CNBC at an event in Berlin, said that the missing link in the current AI development was the operating capital needed to drive the growth of these enterprises. He added that capital demand was much greater than capital supply and that the problem would be addressed.
Chase CEO Chen Fookyang has made similar judgements and, in his view, the shortage of funds, rather than the availability of chips, is currently the biggest constraint.
Indeed, before Hoang In-hoon spoke, the debtor market had already given pricing.
Last week, CoreWeave showed up with a stock debt double killing. The rate of return on its bonds that matured in 2031 rose to 15 to 16 per cent, and the bond was issued in June 2025 at a rate of 9.675 per cent. Its five-year credit default swap implied a more than 60 per cent probability of default. The company ' s weekly share price fell by about 25 per cent.
The pressure on numbers comes from both ends. CoreWeave's debt was about $35.5 billion, $2.575 billion was collected in the second quarter, net interest expenditure was $640 million, capital expenditure exceeded $9 billion and free cash flows were negative $5.7 billion. Its annual capital expenditure guidelines range from $35 billion to $39 billion.
It is worth mentioning that, in the same week, a new money was received by another crediter. On 22 October, Citi took the lead in providing $3.5 billion in priority guaranteed financing to Nebius for a period of 364 days, at a price of TermSOFR plus 2.75 per cent, up to 3.50 per cent, for data centre and GPU procurement. Its share price fell by 7.3 per cent to $158.89.
The cost of this money is higher than it was when CoreWeave issued bonds two years ago.
In contrast to debt markets, the first-tier market. In March this year, Open AI completed $122 billion in financing, with a post-investment valuation of $852 billion. In May, Anthropic completed the $65 billion H round of financing, with a post-investment valuation of $965 billion, exceeding Open AI, whose annualized income exceeded $47 billion in early May.
Further analysis shows that the money comes in through three corridors and the cost increases in turn.
First, equity, such as two rounds of private fundraising between Open AI and Anthropic.
Second, open bonds, such as the 9.675 per cent coupon issued by CoreWeave in June 2025.
Third, obligations secured by cash flows of assets or contracts, such as Nebius ' $3.5 billion in priority secured financing, have asset-supporting financing space corresponding to more than $40 billion in long-term contracts.
The third of these is the highest cost, and the fastest growing since this year.
The cost structure changed the way of accounting for Chinese companies.
The books of Chinese companies have their own readings.
In contrast to the country, technology giants spend a lot on AI.
The data show that capital expenditure for the quarter of June 2026 was $6,678 million, an increase of 75 per cent over the same period, compared with $38,676 million during the same period of the previous year. Cash flows from operating activities during the same period amounted to $22,945 million and net outflows from free cash flows totalled $44,670 million.
In addition, financing is synchronized. On 23 August, Alibaba completed the sale of HK$80 billion.
The capital expenditure of Tencent in the second quarter of 2026 was $52,784 million, an increase of 176 per cent over the same period. The total for the first half of the year was $84,720 million, an 82 per cent increase over the same period.
During the same period, the free cash flow was negative 13.8 billion yuan. However, the company issued an additional calibre in its bulletin, removing the advance payments for credit purchases, resulting in a positive cash flow of $37.6 billion, a difference of $51.4 billion. Cash flows from current operating activities amounted to $52.7 billion, and capital expenditures to $59.3 billion.
The books of non-listed companies are more dependent on debt. Information indicates that in early September, byte jumped to finalize a $29.6 billion syndicated loan. The initial size of the loan was $20 billion, which was expanded to $29.6 billion owing to high subscriptions, with nearly 30 participating banks, with a median share of more than 60 per cent. Of these, $3 billion from the Bank of Commerce and Industry, $2.5 billion from the Bank of China, $1.5 billion from the Bank of Construction and $1.5 billion each from HSBC.
The period is three years, renewable for two more years without warranty. During the same period, its capital expenditure plan was revised upwards to a maximum of $70 billion.
It's also about burning money, different calibres and different conclusions. Indeed, the fact that Tencent gave two free cash flow figures in the same bulletin was self-explanatory.
Finally, AI had been recorded in 2036 and could verify its cash flow statement only until the third quarter of 2026.
It has not yet been made public as to who will ultimately take over these commitments, whether they are resold by cloud manufacturers, new debts or cash flows. Wong In-hoon said that capital needs were far greater than capital supply, and that the problem would be resolved in a way that had not yet appeared in any disclosure document.
There are two observational nodes. One is the free cash flow in Meta ' s quarterly financial statements, and the other is how the $12,141 million contract commitments, due in 2027, will be renewed. The earlier signal came from the debt market, where the return on bonds due in 2031 had been priced before CoreWeave's financial disclosure.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.