文 | 短剧八部半
三次起大早，AI短剧、AI明星、AI电影，博纳都集齐了。
这三个领域还都是宣称了“首个”的。
首部AI院线电影，“股市电影”
10月23日，博纳上映《三星堆：未来往事》，被称为国内首部获得公映许可证的AI原生院线电影。
猫眼实时票房显示，首日票房为30万元。
我也大概检索了一下附近的影院，购票人寥寥，但票价仍然在25-40元一张。排片最多的是博纳自己的电影院。
照这样的票房趋势看，距离回本（博纳宣称的千万级成本），还有一段距离。
但它的价值似乎已经实现了。
一个月前，当博纳宣布《三星堆：未来往事》定档时，博纳股价一字涨停，封单近70万手，主力资金净买入1.37亿元。
首部AI科幻短剧，浅尝辄止
电影影视集团下场做AI短剧，博纳是最早一批。
2024年7月，《三星堆：未来启示录》登陆抖音，号称国内首部AIGC科幻短剧。
彼时Sora发布刚半年，生成式视频技术还处在全民围观阶段。
现在回看，这部AI短剧集，播放量其实并不算差，在当下AI短剧爆款率不足1%的情况下，它做到了抖音播放超2亿。
但这个播放量，更多是基于观众对“首部”的猎奇。它更像一次PR事件：验证了“AI+三星堆”的话题性。
在这之后，博纳既没沉淀下短剧工业化的产能，也没赶上2024-2025年真人短剧商业化的红利。更没有在今年AI短剧风靡的浪潮里，推出什么作品
首部AI明星院线片，“AI成龙”票房惨败
同样的时间。博纳也是最早一批高调宣布用AI明星进院线电影的。
2024年7月上映的《传奇》，用AI技术复原27岁的成龙，戏份占比超过70%，成本高达3.3亿元。最终票房约8000万元，亏损超2.5亿。
此前，电影工业也不是没有使用数字技术复原演员。
《速度与激情7》中的保罗·沃克，在拍摄期间不幸离世。制作团队通过已有素材、替身拍摄和数字技术完成角色，既是为了让影片能够完成，也是对演员和角色的一种告别。
但《传奇》里的“AI成龙”，面对的是另一种情况。
观众喜欢27岁的成龙，喜欢的是他为电影拼命、为成式武打风格创新的精神，而不只是那张脸。
在此前的成龙经典电影里，成龙的动作节奏、身体反应、摔打碰撞，才是观众熟悉的成龙。
在《传奇》里，AI技术只是复原了一张年轻的脸，而不是复原一个演员的表演。
观众对《传奇》的吐槽很到位：“不用替身的成龙，最早用起了AI。”
AI明星的技术展示，最后成了观众对AI表演的反向展示。
“单纯”的电影推销员
博纳在AI影视赛道，每次都起大早，却都赶不上早集。
陈凯歌对博纳创始人于东有句评价，说他是“电影推销员”。不仅如此，于东还是个“单纯”的电影推销员。
推销员，需要的是精准的市场眼光。其实，这一点于东还是有。毕竟博纳两次成功就是这么来的。
第一次是90年代末，博纳开始做电影发行。
彼时内地院线饥渴，港片产能成熟，于冬拿着全国第一张民营发行牌照，把《新警察故事》《伤城》《窃听风云》一批港片卖进内地，从纯发行做到“投资+发行”，靠信息差和渠道垄断赚得第一桶金。
这批港片背后的共同点，是成熟的香港电影工业、明星阵容和类型片经验。博纳不需要从零建立一套内容生产体系，它要做的是把成熟的电影产品引入内地市场，再通过投资和发行扩大收益。
第二次是10年代，港片式微，博纳把香港导演团队和内地主旋律题材嫁接，搞出了“新主流大片”。
这个路径，构成了博纳过去最成功的电影商业模式：
2014年，徐克拍《智取威虎山》，8.8亿票房；
2016年，林超贤拍《湄公河行动》，11.8亿票房；
2018年，林超贤拍《红海行动》，36.5亿票房；
2021和2022年，《长津湖》系列两部近百亿票房，创造当时的影史纪录。
AI时代，博纳拥抱AI影视，赛道是没错。但问题是，路径依赖过去的成功经验，不一定适用AI影视。
反观《三星堆：未来往事》，博纳用的还是大影视公司的卖大片的电影逻辑——“大制作+大卡司+大题材”。
博纳官方宣称，为了这部电影，投入了近两年的技术探索，是一部千万元级成本的AI电影。
生成了120余万张底图，进行了上百次全片迭代，按照传统实拍剧组设置摄影、灯光、美术等17个专业分工，参与人员近百人，等等。
博纳企图给观众呈现一部AI“超级大片”的制作来时路。
AI电影，不相信宏大叙事
都2026年了，还在搞电影市场的宏大叙事。
回顾一下刚刚结束的国庆档。总票房11.65亿元，创下过去12年来同期新低。
电影市场大概再也回不去曾经几十亿票房信手拈来的时期了，就连最成功的电影“产品经理”陈思诚的《神探之痕迹》也仅拿下4亿多票房，放在几年前连前十都进不去。
从影视类型甚至是娱乐方式来看，观众的选择越来越多。从影视内容来看，观众对电影的要求也越来越高。
观众不会只因为你是“大制作、大场面、大IP”就买单，反而那些小制作、小体量，但打动人的作品赢得了市场。
今年最典型的是《给阿嬷的情书》，1400万成本，潮汕方言片，全素人演员。
最终票房超20亿，投入产出比达140倍。
这部电影，靠的只是观众最朴实的口口相传的好评。
博纳可以说，传统实拍制作《三星堆》，成本可能达到8亿-9亿元。但AI降本叙事能成立的逻辑，只存在于内容好的前提下。
而AI电影《三星堆：未来往事》，成不了第二个“《牛来》”。
《牛来》是一种反AI叙事，是观众对技术的逆反心理下，共同制造出来的一场狂欢。大家享受集体吐槽、面对面交流的那种爽感。
但AI电影不一样。
红果日活1.6亿人。观众已经很习惯AI剧、AI漫剧的内容形式了。免费的AI内容也冒出了一些精品，“那我凭什么要看付费的AI电影”？
只能说，于东“单纯”到有些执拗，他似乎只认电影。
他曾经说，短剧只是他们影视内容的一个补充。
的确，博纳宣传过的短剧，也就寥寥几部。能检索到的，除了前面提到的AI短剧，还有两部：《三生：渡厄》和《天罗地网》。
你可以看不上短剧，但你不能看不上这个市场，以及观众的内容倾向。在电影《无间道2》里，转型期的倪永孝，也可以爱国。
其实和博纳同期进入短剧的，还有周星驰的比高集团。相比之下，周星驰就诚实多了，从不避讳赚钱。
从《金猪玉叶》开始，比高集团与短剧市场建立了连接。此后，比高集团也在继续向新内容形态延伸。
2026年，周星驰携比高集团战略入股苏州互动之星，公开宣布将围绕AI剧集、互动影游、真人影视和IP全产业链运营展开合作，重点发力AI漫剧、AI拟真人剧，并计划与互动之星共同开发相关内容。
今年，周星驰还宣布和火山引擎合作，直接把电影IP授权变现。
当然，周星驰和比高集团可能并没有完全跑通AI商业模式。但至少，它开始尝试把AI放进更广泛的内容业务里，而不只是把AI当作一部电影的技术标签。
而在对电影大片的“单纯”信仰中，博纳错过了大力发展AI短剧和真人短剧的时机。
博纳做AI影视，一直在抢“行业首个”的名头。
三年三次出手，每次都踩在技术风口的起点，但都给人一种“起了个大早，干了个晚集”的观感。
三次都有相似的资本叙事：抢到“首个”后，股价上涨总会登上新闻。至于内容本身能不能被观众接受、能不能跑通商业模式，似乎反而没那么重要。
但AI强势进入影视行业后，一个最明显的趋势反而是，好内容越来越珍贵了。
于东对电影的“单纯”大概还不够彻底。最大道至简的单纯，是对电影内容的信念感。
不过，博纳还是给其他影视公司打了个样。AI电影可能再也不能沿用过去的制作和发行模式了。
本文由 AI图鉴自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
Man, Man, eight and a half parts of the short play.
Three early mornings, Ai shorts, Ai stars, Ai movies, Bonaple.
All three areas are also declared “first”.
First Al-Hospital Film, "The Stock Market Film"
On 23 October, Bonna launched " The Three Stars: The Past ", known as the country ' s first film with a public screening licence.
The cat-eye real-time ticket room showed that the first day ticket room was $300,000.
I've probably searched the nearby cinema with a few buyers, but the fare is still between $25 and $40. Boone's own cinema is the biggest part.
According to this trend, there is still a distance to return to Ben’s (the tens of millions claimed by Bona).
But its value seems to have been realized.
A month ago, when Bonaparte announced the booking of " Three Stars: The Future ", Bonaparte ' s share price went up and went up, with nearly 700,000 hands and a net of $137 million in capital.
First AIS short play, it's easy.
The film and video group ended up doing the Ai shorts, and Bona was the first.
In July 2024, the Three Stars: A Revelation of the Future landed at Douyin, known as the first AIGC science fiction drama in the country.
In the second half of the year, sorapublish is still in the general view of the population.
Now, looking back at this short-time set of AI, it's actually not a bad play, and it's doing Douyin over 200 million with less than 1 per cent of the current short-time show.
But this is more based on the audience's surprises about the first. It's more like a PR event: validates the subject matter of "AI+Ten Stars."
Since then, Bonna has neither been able to sink the industrial capacity of the short drama nor have it been able to catch up with the dividends of the commercialization of the reality short play of 2024-2025. Not even this year's Ai short show.
First AIC.L., "AIJ.R." has lost.
Same time. Bona was also the first high-profile movie to announce the use of the Al Star into the hospital.
The Legend, released in July 2024, restored Sung Lung, 27 years old, with AI technology, with over 70 per cent of the drama at a cost of $330 million. The final ticket room was about $80 million, with a loss of over $250 million.
Previously, the film industry was not a rehabilitation actor without the use of digital technology.
Paul Walker of Speed and Passion 7, died during the shoot. The production team fulfilled its role through asset, double filming and digital technology, both to enable the film to be completed and as a farewell to actors and roles.
But the "AI Jackie Dragon" in the Legend is facing another situation.
The audience likes Jackie Jackie, 27 years old, and he works hard for the movie, and he's innovative for his style, not just his face.
In the old Jackie classic film, Jackie's rhythm, physical reaction, collisions are the ones that the audience knows very well.
In The Legend, AIT only restored a young face, not an actor's performance.
The audience was well equipped to spit on the Legend: "The Jackie without the double, first used the al."
The Ai star technology show ended up as a reverse display of the Ai performance.
"Simply" film salesman.
Bona's on the Al-Video track. He's up early, but he can't make it.
Chen Kaig has an assessment of the founder of Bonner as a “film salesman”. Moreover, Yudong is a “simple” film salesman.
Salesmen, what they need is a precise market view. Actually, there is. After all, that's how Bernard succeeded twice.
The first time was in the late 1990s, when Bona started making films.
In winter, with the country ' s first private issuer, the Hong Kong court was hungry and matured, selling to the Mainland a series of Hong Kong films from the New Police Story, The Injured City, The Vibration Cloud, from pure distribution to "Investigation + Distribution" and earning the first barrel of gold from poor information and a monopoly on channels.
The common denominator behind this series is the mature Hong Kong film industry, star formation and type of film experience. Bonna does not need to set up a content production system from zero, but rather to introduce mature film products into the interior market, and to expand its earnings through investment and distribution.
The second was in the '10s, when the Hong Kong Zhuang Zhuang Zhuang Zhuang Zhuang Zhuang Zhuang was married to Hong Kong's team of directors and mainland chiefly music.
This path constitutes the most successful movie business model in the past:
In 2014, Zeek shot Tiger Mountain with 880 million tickets;
In 2016, Lin made the Mekong River Initiative, with 1.18 billion tickets;
In 2018, Lin made Operation Red Sea with 3.65 billion tickets;
In 2021 and 2022, two of the Ten Billion Houses in the Lake Nagasaki series created a history of the time.
The AI era, Bonner hugs the Ai video, the track is right. The problem, however, is that the path relies on successful past experiences and does not necessarily apply to AI video.
In retrospect of The Three Stars: The Future, Bonner uses the logic of a big film sales by Big Video, “Big Production + Big Case + Big Case”.
The official Bona declared that for this film, the technological exploration that had taken place for almost two years was an AI film with millions of dollar costs.
More than 1.2 million background maps were produced, and hundreds of full film series were produced, with 17 specializations, such as photography, lights, fine arts, etc., set up by traditional reality groups, involving nearly 100 participants, etc.
Boone is trying to show the audience the time of the production of an AI "super-large."
The Ai film. I don't believe in grand narratives.
It's 2026, and it's a big story about the film market.
Look back at the national holiday that just ended. The total ticket room was $1.165 billion, down from a new low in the same period over the past 12 years.
The film market is probably no longer going back to the time when billions of money had been written, and even the most successful film, "Producer" Chen Zhi-Cheng's "Tracks of Discovery", took only over 400 million votes, leaving the top ten years ago.
In terms of the type of video or even the form of entertainment, viewers are increasingly choosing. In terms of video content, the demand for films is increasing.
It's not just because you're big, big, big, big, big. It's not because you're big, you're big.
This year's most typical is The Love Letter to Grandma, 14 million dollars at cost, the Twilight dialectics, the All-American Actor.
The final ticket room was over 2 billion, and the output was 140 times higher.
This film is based on the simplest words of the audience.
Bona could say that traditional reality production of the Three Stars could cost between $800 million and $900 million. But the logic of the AI narrative is valid only if it is good.
And the AI film "The Three Stars: The Past" will not be the second "Cows."
Caucasian is an anti-AI narrative, a co-production of the crowd's anti-technology mentality. You all enjoy the kind of collective vomiting and face-to-face communication.
But the Ai movie is different.
One hundred and sixty million people live daily. Audiences have become used to the content of Ai dramas and Ai comics. Free AI content also comes up with some fine stuff, "Well, why should I watch the paid 's AI film?"
It can only be said that Yu is “simple” to some stubbornness, and he seems to only recognize films.
He once said that the short play was only a complement to their visual content.
Indeed, there are only a few short plays that Bona has promoted. In addition to the previous AI short play, there are two titles: " Three Lives: Dynamite " and " Skynet ".
You can't look at the short play, but you can't look at the market and the audience's content orientation. In the film The Invisible II, Ninghyo in transition can also be a patriot.
And those who entered the short play at the same time as Bonna, and the Zhou Star-stringed Group. By contrast, Zhou Xing is more honest and never shy of earning.
Beginning with the Golden Pig Leave, the Bigo Group has established links to the short play market. Since then, the Bigo Group has also continued to extend to new content patterns.
In 2026, Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Group strategically joined the Suzhou interactive star, publicly announced that it would cooperate around the Ai drama, interactive video tour, live video and IP industry-wide operation, focusing on Ai operas, Ai Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou Zhou and planned to develop relevant content with the interactive star.
This year, Zhou Xing has also announced that he will work with Volcengine to realize the IP authorization directly.
Of course, the Zhou Starch and Biga Group may not have fully run through the AI business model. But at least it started trying to put AI in a broader content business, not just as a technical label for a film.
And, in the “simple” faith in large films, Bonner missed the opportunity to develop the AI shorts and reality shorts.
Bona, who did the AI video, has been stealing the first name in the industry.
Three times in three years, each at the beginning of the technology, gave people a sense of “earthing early and working late”.
On three occasions, there were similar capital narratives: after the first one, stock price increases were always on the news. It does not seem to be so important whether the content itself is acceptable to the audience and whether it runs through business models.
But one of the most obvious trends after AI's strong entry into the film industry is that good content is becoming more valuable.
The "simplity" of the film is probably not complete enough. It's simple and simple, and it's a belief in film content.
However, Bona did something to other video companies. The AI film may no longer follow past production and distribution patterns.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.