投资者对AI的基础设施支出感到紧张
在过去两周里，Alphabet,Amazon,Meta,Microsoft概述了今年将花费超过7400亿美元用于资本支出的计划，华尔街正在将其解读为AI基础设施支出，包括数据中心和芯片。
在AI繁荣初期，投资者基本上奖励了如此巨大的支出，视之为对技术增长潜力的信心。 但当我们进入第四季度时，这种热情似乎正在让位于对消极的自由现金流(比带来公司花费更多的现金)，债务增加，以及这些巨大的投资是否会产生足够的回报。
焦虑情绪在星期五蔓延到整个市场。 纳斯达克号下跌2.9%，芯片股票也出现了倾斜：Nvidia下降4%,Broadcom超过5%,Qualcomm下降11%. 周四暴跌12% 创纪录最糟糕的一天市价5千亿美元又下跌了
关注的一大部分是，曾经从核心企业流出大量现金的公司正受到打击，因为AI威胁到这些企业的经济。 字母表提供了这个星期最清楚的例子。 Google的母公司报告，第三季度出现91亿美元的负自由现金流，其第二季度连续出现红色，尽管季度封顶增长到514亿美元。 Alphabet预计今年支出高达2,050亿美元，预计该支出将在2027年持续上升。
同时，AI Mode的野生成功——Google直接植入Search的AI动力聊天器功能——正在吞噬公司的钱主。 Google的搜索广告业务占其收入的大约一半，增长缓慢到12 %，在五个季度中速度最慢。 留下Google走一个紧绳。 它花费数十亿美元在AI技术上
Amazon在报告过去12个月中出现424亿美元的负自由现金流后，坐上了类似的船，而前一年是148亿美元的正自由现金流。 称公司预计今年将花费2200亿美金的卡普雷斯。 Amazon的股本在周四报告收入后下跌了7%。
Meta也正在燃烧现金，报告第三季度出现21亿美元的负自由现金流量，因为封顶速度超过了业务现金。 今年的顶峰高达1,450亿美元。 公司指出，Muse，新的免费个人AI agent，是一个有点钱的坑(它运行“非常计算密集”，但广告收入增长了26%. Meta上星期的股价高达10%
Microsoft是自由现金流的唯一例外——它在最近一个季度中记录了186亿美元的正自由现金流，顶盘支出为452亿美元，低于其预测的500亿美元。 Microsoft 称并非有意退出AI支出，因此，租借AI计算电源的较小公司的股份沉没。
值得指出的是，支付所有这些人工智能基础设施的资金不仅仅是来自大科技公司的利润。 也出现在股票和债券销售中。 根据S&P全球市场情报，Microsoft,Alphabet,Amazon,Meta，以及Oracle，融资等2026年债务合计3260亿美元，是去年融资金额的三倍。
对AI计算的需求仍然很大。 Google,Amazon，以及Microsoft在他们的云业中都看到了收益。 但是，投资者对满足这一需求的代价感到惊恐。
Anthropic非常期待IPO, AI公司本周早些时候申请上市，其未来的成长取决于能否确保大量的计算。 "金融时报"星期五报道说，布莱克斯通警告投资者，公司在IPO之后可能没有资格获得投资等级评级，这意味着公司最终可能更依赖超标者和第三方为其基础设施野心提供资金。
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Investors are getting nervous about AI infrastructure spending just as the Big Tech companies double down.
Over the past two weeks, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have outlined plans to spend more than $740 billion on capital expenditures this year, which Wall Street is reading as AI infrastructure spending, including data centers and chips.
Earlier in the AI boom, investors largely rewarded such big outlays, viewing them as a sign of confidence in the technology’s growth potential. But as we enter the fourth quarter, that enthusiasm seems to be giving way to concerns about negative free cash flow (spending more cash than a company brings in), mounting debt, and whether these enormous investments will ever generate enough returns.
The anxiety spilled across the market on Friday. The Nasdaq fell 2.9%, and chip stocks took a drubbing, too: Nvidia dropped 4%, Broadcom more than 5%, and Qualcomm 11%. Alphabet, which plummeted 12% on Thursday, its worst day on record, wiping out $500 billion in market value, fell again.
A big part of the concern is that companies that used to have overflowing free cash flow from their core businesses are getting hit as AI threatens the economics of those businesses. Alphabet provided the clearest example of that this week. Google’s parent company reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion in the third quarter, its second consecutive quarter in the red, even as quarterly capex grew to $51.4 billion. Alphabet expects to spend up to $205 billion this year, and expects that spending to keep rising in 2027.
Meanwhile, the wild success of AI Mode — Google’s AI-powered chatbot feature built directly into Search — is eating into the company’s money-maker. Google’s Search advertising business, which makes up roughly half of its revenue, saw growth slow to 12%, its weakest pace in five quarters. That leaves Google walking a tightrope. It’s spending billions on the AI technology that could undermine the search business that pays it.
Amazon is in a similar boat after reporting negative free cash flow of $42.4 billion over the past 12 months, compared with $14.8 billion in positive free cash flow the year before. The company says it expects to spend $220 billion in capex this year. Even though revenue at its cloud business, AWS, grew 39%, Amazon’s stock tumbled 7% after it reported earnings Thursday.
Meta is also burning cash, reporting negative free cash flow of $2.1 billion in the third quarter as capex outpaced its operating cash. It’s guiding to as much as $145 billion in capex this year. The company noted that Muse, its new free personal AI agent, is a bit of a money pit (it’s “very compute-intensive to run,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said). But ad revenue grew 26%. Still, no amount of good news saved Meta from taking a 10% hit on its stock last week.
Microsoft was the only exception when it came to free cash flow — it recorded $18.6 billion in positive free cash flow in its latest quarter, with spending on capex at $45.2 billion, less than the $50 billion it projected. Microsoft said that wasn’t an intentional pullback from AI spending, blaming delays in capacity from third-party providers. As a result, shares of smaller companies that rent out AI computing power sank.
It’s worth noting that the money to pay for all of this AI infrastructure isn’t just coming from the Big Tech companies’ profits. It’s also showing up in stock and bond sales. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle raised a combined $326 billion in debt in 2026, triple the amount raised last year.
Demand for AI compute remains strong. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft all saw gains in their cloud businesses. But investors are getting spooked by the costs of meeting that demand.
These muddied waters could complicate Anthropic’s highly anticipated IPO. The AI company filed to go public earlier this week, and its future growth depends on securing enormous amounts of compute. Financial Times reported Friday that Blackstone has warned investors the company might not qualify for an investment-grade rating after its IPO, meaning it might end up being more reliant on the hyperscalers and third-parties to fund its infrastructure ambitions.
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