周一，日本NAND闪存龙头铠侠的股价一度暴跌17%，因该公司上周五给出的偏谨慎的业绩指引令投资者感到失望，市场再度担忧人工智能（AI）驱动的爆炸式的增长势头可能正在放缓。截至周一发稿，铠侠股价下跌13.29%，报11680日元，较今年6月创下的历史高位跌近70%。不过，年初迄今，该股涨幅仍高达2倍。
今年6月，受益于AI浪潮推动的存储超级周期，铠侠曾一度跃升成为日本市值最高的上市公司。
触发周一抛售的导火索并非财报表现糟糕。铠侠上周五公布的财报显示，在截至9月底的2026财年第二财季，该公司营收达到2.48万亿日元，同比增长453.20%，单季营收已超过上一财年全年的约2.34万亿日元；调整后营业利润同比暴增2181.10%。
问题出前景展望上。铠侠上周五预计，12月当季营业利润为2万亿日元（约合127亿美元），低于分析师普遍预期的2.35万亿日元。
该预测表明，相较于9月当季录得的1.99万亿日元的营业利润，增长几乎停滞。而在过去几个季度里，铠侠的营业利润一直呈现强劲的上行趋势。
铠侠将这一增长乏力主要归因于出货时机问题，而非需求恶化。
应客户要求，部分原定于本季度交付的订单被提前至9月当季交付；而另一些订单则被推迟至次年3月当季，因为企业级存储产品订单占比增加，而这类产品需要更长的生产周期。
铠侠首席财务官Yoshihiko Kawamura上周在电话会议上表示，公司预计将在明年3月当季重回快速增长轨道，来自AI数据中心运营商的需求依然强劲。
他表示，公司明年的规划产能已经售罄，后年产能中过半已被分配完毕。一些大客户甚至已经开始就2029年及以后的合同进行谈判。
然而，投资者对铠侠描绘的增长叙事愈发心存疑虑，因为公司高管们在展望前景时表态偏谨慎。
铠侠的潜在劣势可能在于其专注于NAND闪存，而其韩国竞争对手同时销售DRAM芯片——这是AI计算机中的另一个关键组件——因此拥有更强的议价能力。
2026年第二季度，铠侠NAND平均售价环比上涨约70%，而到了第三季度，涨幅已骤降至约20%。这一价格信号也令市场感到警觉，成为打压投资者情绪的关键因素之一。
对于存储芯片股而言，市场通常更关注价格变化的速度而非绝对价格水平，这一信号被解读为本轮上行周期可能出现拐点。
周一，三星电子早盘一度跌超3%，SK海力士跌超1%，不过，随后双双逆转跌势，截至发稿，三星股价上涨0.44%，海力士股价上涨2.75%。
加剧周一跌势的另一重要因素，是铠侠股东结构的内在脆弱性。在东京证券交易所所有上市公司中，铠侠的杠杆多头仓位集中度最高，一旦出现负面催化剂，融资交易者便面临被迫抛售的压力。
本文由 AI图鉴自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
On Monday, Japan’s NAND Flash Dragon’s stock price dropped by 17 per cent at a time when investors were disappointed by the company’s cautious performance guidance last Friday, and the market was again concerned that the explosive growth driven by AI could slow down. As of Monday, Zhang stock prices had dropped by 13.29 per cent, reporting an amount of 11,680 yen, which is close to 70 per cent below the historical high reached in June this year. However, the increase in the Unit has so far been twice as high at the beginning of the year.
In June this year, thanks to the supercycle of storage driven by the wave of AI, Zhang made a leap to Japan ' s highest-market listing company.
The fuse that triggered the sale on Monday was not bad in financial terms. The financial report published last Friday shows that, as of the end of September, the company had collected 2.48 trillion yen, an increase of 453.2 per cent over the same period, and that the single-season collection had exceeded the previous fiscal year ' s total of approximately 2.34 trillion yen; adjusted operating profits increased by 2181.10 per cent over the previous fiscal year.
The problem is the outlook. Last Friday, Zhang projected a profit of 2 trillion yen (approximately $12.7 billion) for the December season, lower than the general analyst forecast of 2.35 trillion yen.
The forecast shows that growth has almost stagnated compared to the profit of 1.9 trillion yen recorded in September. And in the last few quarters, Zhang's profits have been showing a strong upward trend.
This lack of growth was largely attributed to the timing of deliveries rather than to the deterioration of demand.
At the client ' s request, some of the orders originally scheduled for delivery in this quarter were delivered earlier than the current quarter of September, while others were postponed until the current quarter of March of the following year, as the proportion of corporate-level storage product orders increased and such products required longer production cycles.
Yoshihiko Kawamura, the chief finance officer of Zhang, stated at a teleconference last week that the company is expected to return to the fast-growing track in March next year, and that demand from the AI data centre operator remains strong.
He indicated that the company ' s planned capacity for next year had been exhausted and that more than half of that capacity had been distributed the following year. Some major clients have even begun negotiations on contracts for 2029 and beyond.
Investors, however, are increasingly sceptical about the growth narrative depicted by the Zhang Man, as corporate executives are cautious in looking ahead.
The potential disadvantage of the warrior may be that it focuses on the NAND flash, while its Korean rivals sell the DRAM chip at the same time — another key component of the AI computer — and thus have greater bargaining power.
In the second quarter of 2026, the average sale price of Zhang NAND increased by about 70 per cent, while in the third quarter the increase fell sharply to about 20 per cent. This price signal also alerts the market and is one of the key factors in discouraging investor sentiment.
For chip stocks, the market tends to focus more on the speed of price changes than on absolute price levels, a signal that is interpreted as a possible turning point in the current cycle.
On Monday, three-star electronics dropped by over 3 per cent and SK Hercules by over 1 per cent, but then the double-turned down was followed by a 0.44 per cent and 2.75 per cent increase in the cost of the three-star stock as of the date of the submission.
Another important factor contributing to the decline on Monday is the inherent vulnerability of the Zenith shareholder structure. Among all listed companies of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Zhang Man has the highest concentration of leverage and, in the event of negative catalysts, financiers face pressure to sell.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.