Anthropic PBC这场超大型IPO的市场氛围略有回暖：Meta宣布规模达950亿美元的股票发售，科技股也从10月低点小幅回升。但仍存在一些不利因素：IPO市场整体环境承压，Anthropic的融资目标极其宏大，而本次IPO成败将对股市与信贷市场产生重大影响。
这家由达里奥·阿莫代伊创立的公司，计划募资规模至少对标SpaceX在6月创下860亿美元纪录的IPO；路透报道称，这款Claude聊天机器人背后的企业募资上限有望达到1000亿美元，超越SpaceX。
Meta巨额售股至少带来新信号：投资者愿意大手笔投入AI主线。这家脸书母公司发售380亿美元普通股与优先股，高于初始目标；还计划从明年起通过定向增发，再融资600亿美元。芯片巨头英伟达、AMD、博通会认购一小部分，但大部分承接压力仍由市场承担。即便如此，Meta股价在周一消息落地后跌幅不足2%。
信贷市场先期承接了AI资本开支的融资需求，如今轮到股票投资者出钱接力。咨询机构Yorkville Ives指出，Meta的“债务融资阶段已经告一段落”，其三季度长期借款增至810亿美元，去年同期仅为290亿美元。
本月还有一笔大型科技股权融资落地：施耐德电气以230亿美元收购美国软件企业PTC，为此募资60亿欧元（折合67亿美元）。这笔交易无论对这家法国企业还是欧洲市场而言都体量巨大，在法国融资成本大幅走高的背景下，算得上亮眼成果。
这些史诗级股权交易看似对Anthropic是利好。但成熟蓝筹公司增发新股，和IPO完全不是一回事。Meta、施耐德是市场熟知的标的，现有投资者在心仪企业折价增发时，有充分理由加仓。而IPO是对风险偏好的终极考验。尽管当下Anthropic自带“必配资产”光环，买与不买的决定权仍在投资者手中，他们需要腾挪资金来参与。
另外，IPO市场环境相比SpaceX上市时已经转差：美国10年期美债收益率从4.5%上行至5%。SpaceX股价表现小幅跑赢大盘，但今年美国多数IPO表现不及预期，平均涨幅仅2%；数据中心运营商的IPO行情尤为惨淡。
Anthropic收入增长迅猛，但它的估值逻辑相比SpaceX更难把握。SpaceX拥有成熟的火箭发射业务，还有能够盈利的星链通信业务，源源不断为马斯克的AI宏图输血。和SpaceX一样，散户资金也会成为Anthropic的需求支撑。
这件事的影响只局限于Anthropic本身，还是会波及整个大盘？一个合理的疑问是：股票投资者是否还扛得住又一笔天量融资需求。美国资本市场深度全球第一，但流动性并非无穷无尽。资管机构用来申购新股的资金，要么来自客户新增投入，要么来自卖出已有持仓。SpaceX发售前的6月，标普500前十权重股几乎全线小幅走弱，或许就是投资者腾出现金的信号。
部分股票策略师梳理资金流向后，对市场承接能力保持乐观。一方面，Meta、Alphabet等科技巨头从回购股票转为增发，由向市场返还现金变成抽走流动性；但其他行业的企业回购，对冲了这一影响，回购主体也不只是英伟达、美光这类AI资本开支的直接受益标的。
德意志银行策略师认为，本轮股权发行热潮源于旺盛的买盘需求，新股供给增速会放缓，但不会终结股市上涨行情。
高盛的研究显示，历史上大型IPO仅会给股市带来短期压力；过去30年，在巨型IPO前后几周，标普500平均维持横盘，之后重拾升势。高盛分析师表示：“我们预计新增股票供给短期内不会终结牛市”，并指出今年企业股权融资规模仅占美国股市总市值的1%。
理论上看，市场有能力消化这一笔巨型新股供给。但Anthropic终究是一单IPO，行情受情绪与变数影响。所有人都需要关注它，因为这笔交易已经成为AI交易主线的象征——而AI主线，就是当下市场的核心。
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Anthropic PBC, the super-large IPO market climate, recovered slightly: Meta announced a $95 billion stock sale, and the technology unit recovered slightly from its low point in October. However, there are still a number of disadvantages: the overall environmental pressure on the IPO market, and the very ambitious financing objectives of Anthropic, the success of which will have a significant impact on the stock and credit markets.
This company, founded by Dario Amodei, plans to raise funds on at least an IPO with a 86 billion-dollar record for SpaceX in June; Reuters reports that the corporate ceiling behind this Claude chat robot is expected to reach $100 billion, surpassing SpaceX.
Meta's large sales share offers at least new signals: investors are willing to put their hands on the AI main line. This Facebook parent company sold $38 billion in general and priority shares, above the initial target, and plans to raise $60 billion from next year through targeted increases. While a small portion of the chip giants, Weida, AMD, and Chase, remain largely under market pressure. Even so, Meta's share price fell by less than 2 per cent after Monday's news.
The credit market pre-empts the financing requirements for AI capital expenditure, and it is now the turn of equity investors to take over. The advisory body, Yorkville Ives, noted that Meta's “debt financing phase has come to a close”, with long-term borrowing increasing to $81 billion in the third quarter, compared to $29 billion in the same period last year.
This month also saw the landing of a large technology equity financing: Schneider Electric purchased the US software enterprise PTC for $23 billion, raising Euro6 billion ($6.7 billion). The deal was substantial for both the French firm and the European market, and it was a bright outcome against the backdrop of a significant increase in the cost of French financing.
These epic equity deals seem to be good for Anthropic. But growing new shares with mature blue chip companies is nothing like IPO. Meta and Schneider are well-known targets in the market, and existing investors have good reason to hold back when the discount increases. IPO is the ultimate test of risk preferences. Despite the fact that Anthony now carries his own “necessary asset” halo, the decision to buy and not to buy remains in the hands of investors, who need to move funds to participate.
In addition, the IPO market environment has changed in comparison with SpaceX when it was on the market: the 10-year United States rate of return on United States debt rose from 4.5 to 5 per cent. SpaceX stock prices have been small-scale, but most IPOs in the United States this year have fallen short of expectations, with an average increase of only 2 per cent; the IPOs of data centre operators are particularly poor.
Anthropic income is growing rapidly, but its valuation logic is more difficult to grasp than SpaceX. SpaceX has a mature rocket-launching operation, as well as a profitable satellite chain communication operation, which continues to feed Mask ' s AI macro. Like SpaceX, diaspora funds can be a demand support for Anthropic.
Will the impact of this be limited to Anthropic itself, or will it affect the whole disk? A reasonable question is whether equity investors are still able to absorb yet another one-size-fits-all financing requirement. The United States capital market is global in depth, but liquidity is not unlimited. The funds used by the institution for the purchase of the new unit are either from additional inputs from clients or from the sale of existing stocks. In June, before SpaceX was sold, the first 10 weights of the standard 500 were almost entirely weak, perhaps as a signal that investors would release cash.
Some stock strategists are optimistic about market capacity when they streamline the flow of funds. On the one hand, technology giants such as Meta and Alphabet have moved from repurchase of stocks to build-up, from cash to market to cash withdrawal; but repurchases by enterprises in other sectors have been counterproductive, and the repurchasers have not only benefited directly from AI capital expenditures such as those of Ingweda and Misang.
According to Deutsche Bank strategists, the boom in the distribution of equity in this round is driven by a strong demand for buyouts, and the growth of new stock supply will slow, but will not end the stock-market boom.
Goldman Sachs research shows that historically large IPOs have only brought short-term pressure on the stock market; in the past 30 years, the scale has averaged 500 for the past few weeks before and after the giant IPOs, and then picked up. Goldman Sachs analysts said: “We expect that the new stock supply will not end the cattle market in the short term” and noted that the size of corporate equity financing this year is only 1 per cent of the total market value of the United States stock market.
In theory, the market has the capacity to absorb this huge new stock supply. But in the end, Anthropic is an IPO whose behavior is influenced by emotions and variables. All of us need to focus on it, because the deal has become the symbol of the main line of the AI deal — the main line, which is at the heart of the current market.
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