苹果首款折叠屏开卖！没AI也抢疯了，发货排到明年1月
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苹果首款折叠屏iPhone Duo，国行已经正式开卖。
15999元起
，展开是一块7.6英寸的大屏，里面是2纳米的A20 Pro。苹果在美国官网上介绍这块屏，说更大的画布让Duo更适合Siri AI。
可在国行Duo上长按侧边按钮，
叫出来的还是那个老Siri，苹果智能一项都没开通。
不过，这一点也没耽误大家抢。现在下单起售款，
发货已经排到了明年1月22日
。
抢到首批的人，开卖当天一早就拿到了手。
这份快乐我们也安排上了，
全员人手一台Duo
，第一批昨天也到了。
200亿参数，装进一台折叠iPhone
虽然AI没到，但苹果为AI准备的硬件倒是一样不少。
Duo用的A20 Pro和iPhone 18 Pro是同一颗芯片，配12GB内存。神经网络引擎变成「双16核」，
跑端侧AI的算力翻倍，内存带宽多了50%
。
这几样对应的，正是手机跑大模型的三道关，装得下，吐得快，还得一直算得动。
苹果今年6月公布的AFM 3里，手机上跑的最大一个是200亿参数的AFM 3 Core Advanced。按每个参数4比特粗算，光权重就要10GB左右，差不多是Duo的全部内存。
于是，苹果干脆换了个思路。完整权重放在闪存里，一条请求进来，挑出这次要用的「专家」搬进内存，
每次上场的只有10亿到40亿参数
。
它按请求挑专家
，不像常见MoE那样每生成一个token就重新路由。
共享专家常驻内存，路由专家按需从闪存调入，生成过程中还会定期重选。否则算力还没用起来，时间先耗在搬权重上了。
具体该搬哪些权重，得先看你让它干什么。AFM 3 Core Advanced用到了「指令跟随剪枝」（IFP）的思路：
一个小预测器先读指令
，再挑出前馈网络里需要启用的行和列。
每种用途还会预设自己的激活规模，按难度分批加载权重。同一套大模型，就能按任务切出大小不同的子网络，不必在手机里另外常备一堆小模型。
吐字快不快，主要看内存带宽；读懂一长段输入，主要看算力。
同一个苹果端侧模型换到A20 Pro上，短提示词每秒吐字从100个涨到150个，长提示词的首字延迟砍掉一半，正好对上多出来的带宽和翻倍的算力。
能不能一直这么快，就看散热了。折叠机等于两台手机拼在一起，热量很难从一半传到另一半。
何同学的测试里，连玩30分钟《死亡搁浅》，两台18 Pro平均40帧以上，Duo只有33帧，温度还最高，到了46.5℃。
换成端侧大模型连着干活也一样，热散不出去，就只能降频。
新Siri的大脑在谷歌云，国行还没排期
芯片是同一颗，可苹果智能不全靠手机自己算。轻活在手机上跑，算不动的交给苹果自建的「私有云计算」。
今年这朵云分成了两层。普通的AFM 3 Cloud跑在苹果自研芯片的服务器上；Agent式工具调用、复杂推理这些最重的活，交给
AFM 3 Cloud Pro，跑在谷歌云的英伟达GPU上
。
按苹果公开的方案，CPU用Intel TDX、GPU用英伟达机密计算隔离推理环境，Google Titan参与建立硬件信任；PCC机群还有一份只能追加、可用密码学验证的硬件账本。
连存放密钥的虚拟机，都和接收外部输入的部分分开。苹果设备只信任经苹果密码学批准的软件。
模型的底子也是跟谷歌一起打的。
新一代苹果基础模型基于Gemini
，预训练用的是谷歌的云TPU。
云上的GPU要花真金白银，所以Siri AI这些要调用服务器模型的功能每天都有限额，以后想多用得另付费。
到了国行，这套架构得另搭一遍。据彭博社报道，苹果智能在国内要和阿里、百度合作，国行iPhone的进网许可里也加进了通义千问和通义万相。
苹果的端侧功能大量靠LoRA适配器定制，底座参数不动，只加一小层可训练参数教它干活。可每个适配器只认一个特定版本的底座，
底座一换，就得重新训
。
眼下能看到的时间表，是12月随iOS 27.3推出两年前在美国首发的那批基础功能。
Siri
AI
，苹果连时间都没给。
AI还在路上，折痕先到了
苹果智能要等，这块屏却是到手当天就开始折了。
为了经得住折，Duo的铰链用了100多个零件，内屏叠了十多层超薄材料，层与层之间的胶能像书页一样相对滑动，把弯折的应力卸掉。
何同学的团队拿CT扫了铰链。两侧转轴连着中轴，中间几组齿轮让两半同步转动，弹簧顶着凸轮，手机能停在15度到165度之间的任意角度。
合上手机时，屏幕会在铰链里弯成一滴「水滴」。
水滴越宽，屏幕弯得越缓
，越有利于减轻折痕。Duo的水滴最宽约3.85毫米，在新折叠屏里算中等。
不过，折痕这件事，刚拆封只是第一关。新机的峰谷高度差只有
48.2微米
，大约半张纸厚；可
连折3000次后
，这个数值就涨到了
167.85微米，是新机的3.5倍
。
影视飓风则把一台Duo放上折叠机，室温连折一万次，又在零下20℃折了一千次，铰链依然顺滑。
屏幕正中间却留下了一道清楚的线。其实上机之前，它先被手折了500次，折痕就已经变深了。
按行业每天开合100次的口径算，500次只是5天，一万次也就三个月出头，正常用一周左右，折痕就开始变深了。
Duo内屏里的塑料和胶，性子跟收据差不多，对折再摊平，那道线就留下了。玻璃常温下要么弹回去，要么直接碎；
塑料和胶却会一点点让步，材料学里叫「蠕变」
。
每弯一次就往弯的形状松弛一点，上万次下来，就是一道会反光的浅沟。
修两次内屏，只比买新机便宜3块
首发第一天，小红书上已经有翻车帖了。
有用户刚在营业厅拿到手，在门口开合了几下，内屏就碎了，屏幕上横着一道亮线。
还有一位四川用户，收到新机不到五分钟，打开屏幕的一瞬间就成了这样。
真要自费修，苹果中国官网的保外价，
内屏7998元
，外屏3198元，电池1898元，其他损坏11998元。
内屏修两次是15996元，比买一台新的只少3块钱。
AppleCare+两年2599元，比iPhone 18 Pro贵800元。到了美国，内屏保外也要999美元。
天天用起来，别扭的地方也不少。
影视飓风上手发现，Touch ID识别比iPad mini还慢，内屏一侧没有听筒，展开接电话会自动外放；看3小时视频，Duo比18 Pro Max多掉了9个点的电。
就连MagSafe支架，也吸不稳展开的Duo。
最难绕开的是App。
没适配的应用只能缩在屏幕中间，分屏时两边各留一条黑边。
就连苹果自己的Apple Store应用也没适配。
有用户晒出的实拍里，购物页面缩在内屏中间，四周留着大片空白。
国行Duo，先是一台大屏iPhone
Counterpoint预计，苹果今年能卖出约600万台Duo。
国行这一批，是在苹果智能一项都没开通的情况下卖出去的。
大家抢的，是苹果第一台折叠屏。
这一代Duo，大家先为折叠屏买单。到了下一次换机，除了屏幕更大、机身更薄，也许还会多问一句：
里面的
AI
，到底能替我办成什么事？
如果AI真能接手更多日常操作，少让人来回切App、点来点去，它就会多提供一个换机的理由。至于能带来多大的变化，还得看真正交到用户手里的体验。
2010年，乔布斯说柔性屏「可能还要很多年」。一年后，苹果递交了一份折叠设备专利，发明人里有个名字叫John Ternus，就是今天的苹果CEO。
从那份专利到今天，苹果用了15年把屏幕折起来。
Duo是两个的意思，国行先拿到了一个。
参考资料：
https://x.com/mediastorm_en/status/2112940762291941794
https://x.com/HTX_Studio/status/2112944780640706903
https://x.com/DashHuang/status/2113512865714118766
https://x.com/Ishansharma7390/status/2113119243508359344
https://x.com/MKBHD/status/2112907526123495759
https://x.com/DashHuang/status/2113504310839615832
https://x.com/MKBHD/status/2113653897609032113
https://x.com/Clay_Rebirth/status/2110641702578844046
https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2113633290381115520
https://x.com/Dexerto/status/2113287715705827791
编辑：摩西 约拿
秒追ASI
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本文由 AI图鉴自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
The apple's front-runner is on sale!
ASI Apocalypse
ASI Apocalypse
Shinjimoto.
Read this chapter in a novel reader.
Read.
Reading in WeChat Official Account novels
New Ji-won.
Apple front-runner iPhone Duo, officially sold by the National Bank.
15999.
It's a 7.6-inch big screen with a 2-nam A20 Pro. Apple introduced the screen on the American Official Online, saying that the larger canvas made Duo more suitable for Siri AI.
You can press the side button long on the National Bank Duo.
It's still the old Siri. Apple intelligence hasn't opened.
However, this did not delay the taking. We're selling now.
The shipment is scheduled for January 22nd next year.
。
We got the first one and got it the morning of the sale.
We've made arrangements for this happiness.
One Duo for all.
The first ones arrived yesterday.
20 billion parameters, load an iPhone
Although AI isn't here, apples have the same hardware for AI.
The A20 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro used by Duo are the same chip with a 12GB memory. The neurological network engine has become the "two-sixteen-nucleus".
Runside AI doubles the calculator. Memory bandwidth's 50% higher.
。
These are the three levels of LLM where mobile phones can be installed, vomited and counted.
Apple released an AFM 3 in June this year, and the biggest one on the phone is AFM 3 Core Advanced with 20 billion parameters. At 4 bits per parameter, the weight of light is about 10 GB, almost the entire memory of Duo.
So the apple just changed its mind. The whole weight is in the flash, and one request comes in, picks out the "expert" to move into the memory this time.
There's only 1 billion to 4 billion parameters at a time.
。
It picks experts as requested.
And unlike the usual MoE, every token generated rerouted.
The pool of experts is shared on a permanent basis and routers are transferred from the flash memory as required and are periodically re-selected during generation. Otherwise, the math is not working, and the time is running out.
It is up to you to see what weight you have to carry. AFM 3 Core Advanced used the idea of "direction and cutting" (IFP):
A small predictor reads the instructions first.
, select the rows and columns that need to be activated in the front feed network.
Each use also presupposes its own activation scale and loads weights by difficulty. The same set of LLMs allows the removal of sub-networks of different sizes by mission, without the need to have other small models on the mobile phone.
Quickness in spitting, mainly on memory bandwidth; reading a long input, mainly on arithmetic.
The same apple side model was switched to A20 Pro, and the short prompt threw up from 100 to 150 words per second, and the long prompt's first words were cut off half, just to calculate the extra bandwidth and doubling.
Can't you stay so fast and see the heat? The folding machine is equivalent to two mobile phones that are co-mingled, and it is difficult to get heat from half to the other half.
In Ho's test, two 18 Pros averaged more than 40 frames and Duo had 33 frames, with the highest temperature of 46.5°C.
The same is true of LLM, which works side by side, and can't get out of the heat.
New Siri's brain is in Google Clouds. The National Bank is not scheduled yet.
The chip is the same, but Apple's intelligence isn't based solely on cell phones. Run on a mobile phone, handing over to Apple's own "private cloud computing".
This year the cloud is divided into two layers. Ordinary AFM 3 Cloud runs on the Apple's self-study chip server; Agent tool call, complex reasoning, the most heavy work.
AFM 3 Cloud Pro, running on the GPU of Google Clouds
。
Under the Apple Open Program, CPU uses Intel TDX, GPU uses Weeda to calculate the secret isolation reasoning environment, Google Titan is involved in building hardware trust; the PC fleet also has a hardware book that can only be added and verified by password.
Even virtual machines that store keys are separated from those receiving external inputs. Apple devices trust only software approved by Apple Password.
The bottom of the model was also played with Google.
A new generation of Apple Foundation based on Gemini
It's Google's cloud TPU.
GPUs on the clouds are going to spend real money and silver, so Siri AI has a daily limit on the functionality to be called on the server model, and will need another paid.
When we get to the state, we're going to have to do this another time. According to Bloomberg, Apple Intelligence is working with Ali, Baidu in the country, and Qwen and Qwen are added to the National Bank ' s iPhone access permit.
The end-side function of apples is heavily customised by the LoRA adapter, the bottom parameters remain intact and a small layer of training parameters is added to teach them to work. But each adapter has only one specific version of the base seat.
Once the bottom is changed, we have to retrain.
。
The timetable that can now be seen is the launch in December of the base set launched in the United States two years ago with iOS 27.3.
Siri
AI
Apple didn't even give time.
AI's still on the way. The creases arrived first.
Apple intelligence waits, but the screen starts to fold on that day.
In order to survive, Duo used more than 100 parts of the chain, with over 10 layers of super thin material stacked in it, and the glue between the layers was as smooth as the pages of the books, removing the bending stress.
Ho's team cleaned the chain with CT. The two sides of the axis are connected to the middle axis, and the middle gears allow for a two-and-a-half synchronized turn, with the springs on the cam, and the mobile phone can stop at any angle between 15 and 165 degrees.
When it closes, the screen bends into a drop of water in the chain.
The wider the drop, the slower the screen bends.
The better it is to ease the crease. Duo's water droplets are approximately 3.85 mm wide and are medium in the new folding screen.
However, the matter of the creases, which had just been dismantled, was only the first phase. There's only one difference between the height of the new machine's Peak Valley.
48.2 micrometres
about half a piece of paper thick;
After 3,000 times,
That's how it went up.
167.85 micrometres, 3.5 times the new machine.
。
The video hurricane put a Duo on a folder, with room temperature folded 10,000 times, and a thousand times below zero at 20°C, and the chain remained smooth.
The screen left a clear line in the middle. It was broken 500 times before it actually got on the plane, and it got deeper.
By a caliber of 100 times a day for the industry, 500 times a day is five days, 10,000 times a month, and the creases start to get deeper in about a week.
The plastic and glue on Duo's inner screen, the sex of which is like a receipt, is spread over the fold and the line is left behind. The glass is at constant temperature either bounces back or is broken directly;
Plastics and glue give in a little bit.
。
The shape of each bend is softer, and 10,000 times down, it is a shallow ditch reflecting light.
It's only $3 less than buying a new machine.
On the first day of the day, REDnote had already flipped the sticker.
The inner screen was broken and there was a light on the screen as soon as the user got his hand in the office and closed the door a few times.
Another Sichuan user, less than five minutes after receiving the new machine, opened the screen in an instant.
I'll pay for it.
Inside screen, $7998.
External screen: $3198, battery: $1898, other damage: $198.
The interior screen was fixed twice at $15996, which is only $3 less than a new one.
AppleCare plus $2599 over two years, which is $800 more than iPhone 18 Pro. It's $999 outside the inner screen.
It's used every day, and there's a lot of twitch.
A video hurricane found that Touch ID identification was slower than iPad Mini, that there were no cans on the inner side, and that the opening of the phone was automatically on the outside; and that Duo lost nine points more than 18 Pro Max on the 3-hour video.
Even the MagSafe stand was suffocated in Duo.
The hardest to get around is App.
Applications that are not suitable can be constricted to the middle of the screen, with a black side on each side.
Even Apple Store's own app is not suitable.
There were photos of users in the sun, shopping pages in the middle of the screen, with large blanks around them.
National Duo, first a screen iPhone
Counterpoint expects to sell about 6 million Duo apples this year.
The National Bank sold this batch of apple intelligence without opening it.
It's the Apple First Collapse.
This generation, Duo, has paid for the folding screen. By the next switch, apart from the larger screen and thinner fuselage, there may be more:
Inside.
AI
What can you do for me?
If AI could really take over more routine operations and get less people back and forth, it would have provided an additional reason to switch. As to how much change can be made, it depends on the experience that really reaches users.
In 2010, Jobs said soft screens "may take many years." One year later, Apple submitted a patent for folding equipment, and one of the inventors was named John Ternus, the Apple CEO of today.
From that patent until today, apples have been folding the screen for 15 years.
Duo means two, the National Bank gets one first.
References:
https://x.com/mediastorm_en/status/2112940762291941794
https://x.com/HTX_Studio/status/2112944780640706903
https://x.com/DashHuang/status/2113512865714118766
https://x.com/Ishansharma7390/status/2113119243508359344
https://x.com/MKBHD/status/2112907526123495759
https://x.com/DashHuang/status/2113504310839615832
https://x.com/MKBHD/status/2113653897609032113
https://x.com/Clay_Rebirth/status/2110641702578844046
https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2113633290381115520
https://x.com/Dexerto/status/2113287715705827791
Editor: Moses Jonah
Second after ASI.
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