“这是一场百年一遇的洪水。”几个月前，库克（Tim Cook）这样形容AI数据中心引发的内存涨价潮。如今，接班的特纳斯（John Ternus）交出了上任后的第一份财报，形势很清晰：库克所说的洪水淹了整个手机行业，苹果靠涨价暂时站在了岸上，但水位还在上涨。
文 | 《硅谷观察》栏目 郑峻
美西时间11月2日，苹果公布了2026财年第四季度财报。当季营收1145亿美元，同比增长12%；净利润307亿美元，都超过华尔街预期。其中iPhone收入575.8亿美元，同比增长17%，创下该季度营收历史纪录。
但另一组数字同样值得关注。据市场研究机构IDC统计，同一时期苹果手机的全球出货量同比下降了4%。销量在减少，收入却在大涨，这或许意味着，苹果这个季度的iPhone营收增长，几乎全部来自涨价以及关税退款。苹果股价在盘后交易中直接下跌了3%。
销量降了，为何营收反增？
需要说明的是，IDC统计的是出货量，苹果确认的是对渠道的销售收入，两者口径并不完全一致。当季iPhone收入增长17%，IDC统计的出货量下降4%，粗略推算，iPhone均价需要提升大约22%。
虽然iPhone销量下降了，苹果却靠涨价提升了营收。这背后有三重机制。
首先，去年的iPhone 17 Pro起售价就比上一代贵了100美元，今年7、8月卖的都是这款更贵的机型。其次，用户越来越多地选择Pro和大容量版本，产品组合本身在变贵。最后，苹果在9月初对整条iPhone产品线全面提价。
9月9日的发布会上，苹果几乎给每一款iPhone都涨了价。iPhone 18 Pro起售价从1099美元涨到1199美元，Pro Max从1199美元涨到1299美元。大容量版本涨得更狠：1TB版本涨了300美元，Pro Max的2TB版本直接涨了500美元，卖到2499美元。
不仅是新品，连老款也一样涨价。iPhone 17起售价格从799美元涨到899美元，iPhone Air、iPhone 17e和iPhone 16统统涨了100美元。苹果还新推出起售价1999美元的折叠机iPhone Duo，而售价最低的Plus机型则干脆被砍掉。
在这些举措下，据媒体统计，美国市场的iPhone平均涨价了13%。
更值得注意的是，苹果今年秋天完全没有发布“平价版”，iPhone 18系列只推出了Pro和Pro Max，标准版iPhone 18和入门款18e要推迟到明年春季。分析师在电话会上追问原因，特纳斯回避了这个问题。
需要指出的是，在这个财报季度里，iPhone 18 Pro也只卖了大约9天，因为苹果财报截止9月26日。涨价的全部效果，要到下个季度才会真正体现出来。
苹果压不住供应商了
苹果必须涨价，是因为它别无选择。过去，苹果是全球最大的闪存买家，两年前的采购量几乎是微软、亚马逊、Meta和谷歌四家总和的两倍。苹果在谈判中极其强势，要求供应商给予“最惠客户”待遇，保证没有人能拿到比苹果更低的价格，还有权审计供应商的账本。
为了拿到苹果的大订单，几乎所有的供应商都选择了忍气吞声，接受了苹果的“不平等要求”。十多年前，苹果发现美光给自己的价格并不是最低，还通过仲裁拿到了数千万美元赔偿。2023年，闪存价格跌到每GB 5美分，整个行业亏损约190亿美元。同一年，苹果却靠卖存储升级赚了约140亿美元毛利。
如今攻守易势，是苹果求着供应商要闪存的时候了。被苹果压榨多年的供应商，现在不需要看苹果的脸色了。AI军备竞赛大潮下，各家数据中心疯狂扫货，云计算巨头的闪存采购量已经是苹果的两倍左右，Meta、微软和亚马逊还签下了更贵的长期合同。这些是连苹果都比不了的。
据TechInsights估算，闪存价格一年涨了约4倍。苹果今年要在闪存上花约250亿美元，而同样的量，去年只要60亿美元。铠侠（Kioxia）一位高管毫不掩饰地说，希望2023年那样的日子永远不要再来。
实际上，不仅是苹果，整个手机行业都在为此买单。IDC数据显示，7月到9月全球智能手机出货量同比暴跌22%，创下历史最大跌幅。相比之下，苹果同期只跌了4%，是前五大厂商中跌得最少的，市场份额已经再次逼近三星。
涨价转移成本上涨
苹果的应对之策很直接：把账单转给消费者。特纳斯接受采访时表示，苹果是“不情愿地”涨价的，目的是对冲零部件成本的上升。从营收增长来看，苹果的确也实现了目标。
涨价的分布也很有讲究。苹果涨得最狠的，恰恰是大容量版本，这正是苹果多年来的“隐形印钞机”。
据媒体分析，iPhone 17 Pro多加一档存储，苹果的成本从约15美元涨到约66美元，却始终向用户收200美元。成本涨得最凶的地方，苹果的价格也涨得最凶。
Mac的数字更夸张。这个季度Mac收入107.9亿美元，同比增长24%，是表现最好的硬件业务。但IDC数据显示，Mac的出货量同比下降了11.3%。销量大幅下滑还能实现营收猛增，靠的就是大幅涨价。
苹果早在6月就给Mac和iPad涨了价，MacBook Pro一口气涨了300美元。上周发布的首款触屏MacBook Pro，起售价更是高达2899美元。
但涨价还没有完全追上成本。这个季度苹果总毛利率47.9%，表面上比去年同期的47.2%还高。可苹果CFO帕雷克（Kevan Parekh）在电话会上承认，其中约1个百分点来自关税退款，而且这笔退款已经基本收完了。扣除这个关税因素之后，当季毛利率约46.9%，略低于去年同期。帕雷克透露，扣除退款后，毛利率环比下降了约1个百分点，主要原因就是内存涨价。
中国市场的故事如出一辙。苹果大中华区营收175.4亿美元，同比增长21%。特纳斯在电话会上说，美国和大中华区都实现了强劲的两位数增长，创下9月季度纪录。但这个数字仍比华尔街预期少了约10亿美元。
更关键的是销量。IDC数据显示，三季度中国智能手机市场整体萎缩15.4%，苹果出货量同比下降4.3%。苹果的份额从15.8%升到17.8%，是因为跌得比别人少，而不是卖得比别人多。
毛利率下滑三个百分点
更大的压力还在后面。苹果股价盘后下跌近3%。
这主要是因为苹果预计，12月季度营收增长7%到10%，低于华尔街预期的11.4%，是近五个季度以来最低的指引。毛利率更是预计降到45%到46%，比去年同期的48.2%低了两到三个百分点，主要原因是内存成本继续上升，以及Siri AI上线带来的新成本。
靠涨价拉动增长，最大的风险是用户不买账。但至少到目前为止，iPhone用户还在买单。苹果说，9月季度的换机用户数创下纪录，iPhone活跃用户也创了历史新高。但iPad和可穿戴设备这个季度都没达到预期，说明并不是每条产品线都扛得住涨价。
苹果的底气来自市场需求。折叠屏iPhone Duo在10月16日开放预订后，几个小时就被抢光，官网发货时间至今排在明年1月下旬。特纳斯坦言，苹果正在全力把Duo送到用户手里，但说不出什么时候能追上需求。
iPhone Duo还遇到了质量麻烦。此前有用户反映内屏出现开裂，苹果已经承认问题确实存在，但坚称只有“极少部分”Duo因屏幕问题被退回，苹果会直接给用户换新机。对一款定价2000美元、刚刚上市的新品类来说，这并不是一个小问题。
iPhone Duo在10月23日才开卖，完全没有计入这次财报。它的首个完整季度，将是苹果今年圣诞季的最大变量。
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"It's a flood that happens every hundred years." A few months ago, Tim Cook described the memory boom triggered by the AI data centre. Today, John Ternus, the successor, handed over his first financial report after taking office, and the situation is clear: The entire mobile phone industry was flooded by what Cook described as flooding, and apples were temporarily on shore at higher prices, but water levels were still rising.
The Silicon Valley Watch.
Apple published the fourth quarter of the 2026 fiscal year on November 2nd. That season, 114.5 billion dollars, an increase of 12 per cent over the previous year; the net profit of 30.7 billion dollars exceeded Wall Street expectations. Of that amount, iPhone earned $57.58 billion, an increase of 17 per cent over the same period, which was recorded for the quarter.
But another set of figures is equally noteworthy. According to IDC, a market research institute, global delivery of apple phones declined by 4 per cent over the same period. Declines in sales and sharp increases in revenues may mean that the iPhone harvest for Apple this quarter grew almost entirely from price increases and tariff refunds. The price of apple shares fell by 3 per cent directly in post-card transactions.
The sales are down. Why is the sales going up?
It should be noted that IDC counts the volume of deliveries and apples confirm the revenue from sales through channels, which are not identical. In the current season, iPhone income grew by 17 per cent, IDC recorded a 4 per cent drop in output, a rough extrapolation, and the iPhone average price needed to increase by about 22 per cent.
Although the volume of iPhone has declined, the price of apples has increased the revenue. There is a triple mechanism behind this.
First, last year's iPhone 17 Pro was worth $100 more than the previous generation, and in July and August this year it was all more expensive. Second, users are increasingly choosing Pro and large-volume versions, and the product mix itself is becoming more expensive. Finally, apples raised the price across the iPhone line in early September.
At the publish meeting on 9 September, apples increased prices for almost every iPhone. The price of iPhone 18 Pro increased from $1099 to $199 and Pro Max from $1199 to $1299. Large-volume versions have gone up even harder: 300 dollars for the TB version and 500 dollars for Pro Max's 2TB version, sold to 2499 dollars.
Not only is it new, but it also increases the price of old money. The price of the iPhone 17 cases rose from $799 to $899, while the iPhone Air, iPhone 17e and iPhone 16 all increased by $100. Apples were also newly introduced iPhone Duo, which was sold for 1999 and the lowest-priced Plus type was simply cut off.
Under these initiatives, the average price of iPhone in the United States market increased by 13 per cent, according to media statistics.
More notably, apples were completely free of publish's “pay-off” this fall, and the iPhone 18 series was launched only by Pro and Pro Max, the standard iPhone 18 and the introduction 18e were postponed until next spring. The analyst asked why at the conference, and Turners avoided the issue.
It should be noted that, during the quarter, iPhone 18 Pro also sold only about nine days, as the Apple News closed on 26 September. The full effect of the price increases will not really be felt until the next quarter.
Apple can't hold the supplier.
Apple had to raise the price because it had no choice. In the past, apples were the largest flash buyers in the world, with purchases nearly double the sum of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google two years ago. Apple was extremely powerful in the negotiations, requiring suppliers to give “best customer” treatment to ensure that no one could obtain a lower price than apples and had the right to audit suppliers' books.
In order to obtain a large order for apples, almost all suppliers have chosen to swallow up and accept the “inequality requirement” of apples. More than a decade ago, Apple found that Mizuoka was not the lowest price for himself, and obtained tens of millions of dollars in compensation through arbitration. In 2023, the flash price fell to 5 cents per GB, with an overall industry loss of about $19 billion. In the same year, apples earned about $14 billion in Maori on stock upgrades.
Now it's time for apples to ask their suppliers for a flashback. The suppliers that have been squeezed by apples for years now don't need to look at apples. At the height of the arms race in AI, data centres are scavenging, cloud-calculating giants are already buying twice as much flash money as apples, and Meta, Microsoft and Amazon have signed more expensive long-term contracts. These are not even apples.
TechInsights estimate that the flash price has increased by about four times a year. Apples are spending about $25 billion this year on flashbacks, while the same amount last year was only $6 billion. One of Kioxia's executives said, without any conceit, that he hoped that days like 2023 would never come again.
In fact, it's not just apples, but the whole mobile business is paying for it. The IDC data show that global smartphone deliveries fell by 22 per cent from July to September, the largest decline in history. In contrast, apples fell by only 4 per cent during the same period, the lowest among the top five producers, with market shares again approaching three stars.
Increased transfer costs
Apple's response is straightforward: transfer the bill to the consumer. In an interview with Turners, it was stated that apples were “unwillingly” priced up in order to hedge against higher spare parts costs. In terms of growth, apples have indeed met their targets.
The distribution of the price increases is also well thought out. The apples are the hardest to see, and it's the very big version, the “Invisible Money Printer” they've been making for years.
According to media analysis, iPhone 17 Pro added an extra set of storages, with the cost of apples rising from about $15 to about $66, but always charging users $200. The price of apples is the worst where costs are rising.
The figure for Mac is even more exaggerated. Mac's revenue of $10.79 billion, an increase of 24 per cent over the same period, was the best-performing hardware business. However, IDC data show that Mac ' s deliveries decreased by 11.3 per cent over the same period. A substantial decline in sales would also result in a sharp increase in profits, which would depend on a substantial increase in prices.
Apples raised prices for Mac and iPad in June, and MacBook Pro raised $300 in one breath. Last week, publish's prime touch was MacBook Pro, with a start-up price of $2899.
But the price increase has not yet fully captured costs. The total paddy rate of apples for the quarter was 47.9 per cent, which is more apparent than the rate of 47.2 per cent for the same period last year. However, Kevan Parekh admitted at the conference that about 1 percentage point of this amount came from customs refunds, which were almost exhausted. After deducting this tariff factor, the Māori rate for the current season was about 46.9 per cent, slightly lower than the same period last year. Parek revealed that after deduction of refunds, the Māori ratio decreased by about 1 percentage point, mainly due to the increase in memory prices.
The Chinese market story is the same. The Apple Region received $17.54 billion, an increase of 21 per cent over the same period. At the conference, Turners said that both the United States and the Greater China region had achieved strong double-digit growth, with a quarterly record in September. But that figure is still about $1 billion less than Wall Street expected.
More crucial is sales. According to IDC data, the market for smart phones in China in general contracted by 15.4 per cent in the third quarter and the volume of apples delivered decreased by 4.3 per cent over the same period. The share of apples rose from 15.8 to 17.8 per cent because they fell less than others, rather than selling more.
Māori rate dropped by 3 percentage points
More pressure is still behind. Apple stock fell by almost 3 per cent.
This is mainly due to Apple ' s projected quarterly growth of 7 to 10 per cent in December, which is below the projected 11.4 per cent on Wall Street and is the lowest since the last five quarters. The Māori rate is expected to drop to 45 to 46 per cent, two to three percentage points lower than the 48.2 per cent rate for the same period last year, mainly because of the continued increase in memory costs and the new costs associated with Siri AI going online.
The biggest risk of growth driven by price increases is that users do not buy. But at least so far, iPhone users have been paying. Apple said that the September quarter had a record number of switch users and the iPhone active users had a record high. However, the fact that iPad and wearable equipment did not meet expectations during the quarter suggests that not every product line could carry the price increase.
The bottom of the apple comes from market demand. The folding screen iPhone Duo was looted a few hours after its opening for booking on 16 October, and the official network has been scheduled for shipment until late January. According to Tenestan, apples are trying to get Duo to the user, but they can't say when they'll catch up.
The iPhone Duo also experienced quality problems. It had previously been reported by users that the interior screen had been broken and apples had acknowledged that the problem existed, but insisted that only “very few” Duo had been returned because of the screen problem and that apples would be replaced directly by the user. This is not a minor problem for a new product that is priced at US$ 2,000 and has just been listed.
The iPhone Duo was only sold on 23 October and was not taken into account at all. Its first full quarter will be the biggest variable for Apple this Christmas season.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.