受内存、固态硬盘及其他关键零部件价格大幅上涨影响，全球个人电脑市场在2026年第三季度遭遇明显下滑。市场研究机构Counterpoint Research的数据显示，全球PC出货量同比下降约21%，结束了此前持续两年多的增长趋势。随着人工智能数据中心对内存资源的需求持续攀升，消费级电脑正面临成本上升、低价机型供应减少以及消费者推迟换机等多重压力。
根据市场研究机构Omdia公布的数据，2026年第三季度，全球台式机、笔记本电脑及工作站出货量约为5810万台，同比下降21.2%。其中，台式机及台式工作站出货量约1170万台，同比下降23.5%；笔记本电脑及移动工作站出货量约4640万台，同比下降20.6%。另一家研究机构Gartner的数据则显示，同期全球PC出货量约5540万台，同比下降22.4%。不同机构的统计口径有所差异，但都指向同一个结论：PC市场正在经历近年来最严重的季度性下滑之一。
此次市场低迷与人工智能产业的快速扩张密切相关。随着大型AI模型训练和推理业务不断增长，数据中心对高带宽内存、服务器DRAM及存储设备的需求大幅增加。三星、SK海力士和美光等主要存储芯片厂商将越来越多的资源投向利润更高的数据中心市场，消费电子厂商则不得不面对供应紧张和采购成本上涨的问题。
内存价格的变化已经明显影响到整机成本。Omdia指出，DRAM和固态硬盘过去通常约占PC整机物料成本的15%，如今这一比例已接近40%，相关组件价格上涨超过四倍。Gartner也表示，2026年第二季度DRAM成本同比增长约五倍，相关成本随后逐渐传导至整机售价。
对于PC厂商而言，涨价并不能完全解决问题。一方面，厂商需要提高售价以弥补零部件成本上升；另一方面，价格上涨又会削弱消费者的购买意愿。尤其是预算有限的用户，当入门级笔记本电脑和低价台式机的价格不再具有吸引力时，往往会选择继续使用现有设备，而不是立即升级。
零部件短缺还改变了厂商的产品策略。由于部分内存、处理器、显卡及其他集成电路供应紧张，厂商开始优先保障利润率较高的产品，减少对低价机型的资源投入。Gartner认为，低价设备供应减少以及整体售价上升，是消费者推迟换机的重要原因之一。与此同时，企业客户也更倾向于将预算集中投入工作站和AI PC等特定用途设备，而不是大规模更新普通办公电脑。
市场下滑还受到2026年上半年提前采购的影响。由于厂商、渠道商和企业客户预期零部件价格将继续上涨，部分采购需求提前释放，导致上半年出货量受到支撑。当这些提前购买的需求在第三季度消退后，市场便出现明显回落。与此同时，渠道仍在消化此前积累的库存，进一步限制了厂商的出货表现。
从主要PC厂商的表现来看，联想继续保持全球市场第一的位置，但出货量也出现明显下降。Omdia数据显示，联想第三季度出货约1490万台，市场份额约26%，同比降幅与整体市场接近。惠普出货约1030万台，位居第二，但同比下降约31%，是主要厂商中跌幅最大的企业之一。戴尔出货约760万台，排名第三；苹果出货约680万台，排名第四；华硕则以约540万台位居第五。
尽管苹果同样受到市场下滑影响，但其表现相对稳健。Omdia数据显示，苹果Mac出货量同比下降约11%，低于多数主要竞争对手，市场份额有所提高。研究机构认为，苹果较为高端的产品定位，使其在成本上涨环境下具有一定缓冲能力。不同机构对苹果出货量和跌幅的估算并不完全一致，但总体趋势相同：苹果受到的冲击相对较小。
展望未来，研究机构对PC市场的短期前景仍持谨慎态度。Omdia预计，2026年第四季度全球PC出货量可能同比下降约24%，而2027年全年还可能进一步下降约7%。这意味着，内存及存储设备价格上涨造成的影响可能不会在短期内消失，PC厂商还需要应对消费者需求疲软、渠道库存调整以及供应链成本高企等问题。
对于消费者而言，未来一段时间内，低价PC可能更加难以购买，部分主流机型也可能继续涨价。不过，如果渠道商因担心库存积压而加大促销力度，部分产品仍有机会出现短期折扣。但这类促销未必能够让整机价格恢复到一年前的水平。
此次PC市场大幅下滑，也反映出AI产业扩张带来的另一面：人工智能数据中心获得更多内存和计算资源的同时，普通消费者购买电脑的成本却在上升。AI PC虽然被厂商视为推动下一轮换机潮的重要产品，但在整机价格持续上涨、低价机型供应收缩的情况下，AI功能能否刺激足够多的消费者更换设备，仍有待观察。
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The global personal computer market experienced a marked decline in the third quarter of 2026 as a result of significant price increases for memory, solid disks and other critical parts. Data from the MarketPoint Research, a market research institute, show that global PC output declined by about 21 per cent each year, ending a growth trend that had lasted for more than two years. As the demand for memory resources in artificial intelligence data centres continues to rise, consumer-level computers are facing multiple pressures, such as rising costs, reduced availability of low-cost machines and delayed switching by consumers.
According to data published by Omdia, a market research institute, in the third quarter of 2026, the global volume of desktops, laptops and workstations was approximately 58.1 million, a 21.2 per cent decrease over the same period. Of these, desktops and workstations delivered approximately 11.7 million units, a decrease of 23.5 per cent over the same period; laptops and mobile workstations delivered approximately 46.4 million units, a decrease of 20.6 per cent over the same period. Data from Gartner, another research institute, show that the global volume of PC deliveries was about 55.4 million, a decrease of 22.4 per cent over the same period. The statistical profiles of different institutions vary, but point to the same conclusion: the PC market is experiencing one of the most severe quarterly declines in recent years.
This market downturn is closely linked to the rapid expansion of the AI industry. Data centre demand for high bandwidth memory, server DRAM and storage equipment has increased significantly as large AI model training and reasoning operations have grown. Major storage chip producers, such as Samsung, SK Hercules and Misang, are increasingly investing their resources in the more profitable data centre market, while consumer electronics manufacturers have to face supply constraints and increased procurement costs.
Changes in memory prices have clearly affected the overall cost of the aircraft. According to Omdia, DRAM and solid-state hard drives, which in the past usually accounted for about 15 per cent of the cost of the PC package, are now close to 40 per cent and the related components have increased by more than fourfold. Gartner also indicated that DRAM costs increased by about five times in the second quarter of 2026, and that the associated costs were then gradually transferred to the whole machine sale price.
For PC manufacturers, price increases do not fully solve the problem. On the one hand, producers need to increase their selling prices to compensate for the increased cost of spare parts; on the other hand, price increases can weaken consumers ' willingness to purchase. In particular, users with limited budgets tend to opt for the continued use of existing equipment rather than an immediate upgrade when entry-level laptops and low-cost desktops are no longer attractive.
The shortage of spare parts has also changed the manufacturer ' s product strategy. Owing to the tight supply of some memory, processors, GPU and other integrated circuits, manufacturers began to prioritize higher-profit products and reduce resource inputs to low-cost machines. According to Gartner, a decrease in the supply of low-cost equipment and an overall increase in the sale price is one of the important reasons for the delay in changing the engine for consumers. At the same time, corporate clients tend to concentrate their budgets on specific-purpose equipment such as workstations and AI PCs rather than large-scale upgrading of general office computers.
The market downturn was also affected by early procurement in the first half of 2026. The first half of the year was supported by the early release of some of the procurement requirements, as manufacturers, conduits and business clients expected that spare parts prices would continue to rise. When the demand for these early purchases subsided in the third quarter, there was a marked fall in the market. At the same time, channels continue to absorb previously accumulated stocks, further limiting the vendor ' s performance.
In terms of the performance of major PC producers, the consortium wants to remain at the top of the global market, but there has also been a marked decline in the volume of deliveries. The data from Omdia show that, in the third quarter of the year, approximately 14.9 million deliveries were made, with a market share of about 26 per cent, a decline close to the overall market. Hewlett-Packard, which is the second largest supplier, has dropped by about 31 per cent over the same period. Dale delivered about 7.6 million of them, ranked third; Apple delivered about 6.8 million of them, ranked fourth; and Hua Zhou ranked fifth with about 5.4 million.
Although apples were also affected by the market downturn, their performance was relatively robust. The data from Omdia show that Apple Mac's output declined by about 11 per cent over the same period, lower than most major competitors, and increased market share. According to research institutions, apples are relatively high-end product positioning, providing them with a certain buffer capacity in an environment of rising costs. The estimates of apple deliveries and drops by different agencies are not entirely consistent, but the overall trend is the same: apples are hit relatively little.
Looking ahead, research institutions remain cautious about the short-term prospects of the PC market. Omdia predicts that global PC deliveries may decline by about 24 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to a further decline of about 7 per cent throughout 2027. This means that the impact of higher prices of memory and storage equipment may not disappear in the short term, and that PC manufacturers need to address weak consumer demand, rebalancing of pipelines and high supply chain costs.
For consumers, low prices for PCs may become more difficult to purchase in the coming period, and some mainstream models may continue to increase prices. However, there are still opportunities for short-term discounts for some products if the vendor increases its promotion due to concerns about the backlog. However, such promotions do not necessarily restore the whole machine price to its level one year ago.
The sharp fall in the PC market also reflects the other side of the expansion of the AI industry: the cost of purchasing computers by ordinary consumers is increasing while artificial intelligence data centres receive more memory and computing resources. While AI PC is considered by manufacturers as an important product for the next rotation, it remains to be seen whether AI functions can stimulate enough consumers to replace equipment in the face of continued price increases and low-cost machine supply contractions.
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