文 | 道总有理
今年的院线，格外得冷。
五一档，首日票房1.6亿元，整个档期总票房破7亿元，相比2023年和2024年超过15亿元的巅峰时期，近乎腰斩。到了十一档，票房依旧惨淡。电影总票房为11.65亿元，观影人次为3199.59万，同比去年下降37%，对比往年数据，更是直接回到了2014年的水平。
“我们以为去年已经触底了，现在看来，底还在更下面，”一位北京电影发行公司的项目经理坦言。
在这种寒意之下，一部名为《三星堆：未来往事》的电影悄悄上映。全流程AI制作、首部AI院线电影、未来科技等多重标签，成功为影片博得了一定的关注，资本市场更是表现出前所未有的兴奋，但它的票房比预期的还低：
据灯塔专业版数据，该片点映票房1.7万元，上映首日票房30.1万元。截至10月26日16时，累计综合票房（含预售）121.6万元，观影总人次达4.1万，AI预测总票房为260.9万元。
AI电影上院线，观众似乎还不想掏钱。
“AI烂片”时代可能要来了
《三星堆：未来往事》主打一个“全AI”，而这个“全AI”并不是“一键生成”。
为了完成这部电影，博纳投入了近两年的技术探索。据媒体报道，制作团队生成了120余万张底图，进行了上百次全片迭代，并参照传统实拍剧组设置摄影、灯光、美术等17个专业分工，参与人员近百人。“跨镜头一致性AI自己搞不定，角色前一秒表情跟后一秒接不上，全靠人盯着补”，总制片人蒋德富称。
但遗憾的是，电影院的观众并没有感觉到这种诚意。“人物动态显得非常僵硬，大部分时候女主都是面瘫扑克脸，而且人物的情绪没有任何过渡，上一幕还面无表情，切到下一个镜头却突然痛哭”，一位网友称，实在无法产生代入感。
投射到大银幕，AI生成在人物面部、动作、镜头衔接等方面的瑕疵无疑被彻底放大了。比如人物刚刚发现线索，决定要去雪山，镜头一切，人就已经到了；经历雪崩之后又切了一个镜头，人又已经站在遗迹门口了。很多细节也令观众十分出戏：角色在雪山徒步时穿着皮鞋和衬衫，雪崩之后所有人几乎毫发无伤，飞船降落的时候其他人都吹倒了，一个跪着的小孩纹丝不动…
当然，也有网友表示影片在视觉效果上超出了预期，不少画面看着接近大片的水准。
以一部成熟影片的评判标准去审视这部首次登上大荧幕的AI电影自然不妥，对行业而言，这部影片最大的价值在于投石问路。
一部AI影片，从立项、制作、审查、定档、发行到上映，第一次被完整走了一遍，它回答了AI电影可以成功进入院线。更重要的是，对AI电影的市场接受度、放大到大荧幕上的效果以及商业回报等关键性问题，它给市场提供了一个有效的参考。
而一部AI影片在大荧幕上的“交付”从不及格到及格再到好片，可能需要数不清的试水，这意味着越来越多的AI影片会出现在观众面前。
在2026年半年报中，博纳影业提到，AI长片电影方面，除了《三星堆：未来往事》，科幻动画电影《计划外：广寒行动》和神话动画电影《中华志怪之罗刹海市》已完成立项。前不久，华策影视正式发布全AI生成3D动画剧集《西游记之消失的五百年》预告片，预计2027年正式上线，后续将探索院线版本的开发空间。
另外，华谊旗下厂牌华谊兄弟火剧此前已发布名为“H·AI火种计划”的AI制作片单，该计划涵盖9部AI短剧与1部AI电影《欧拉恒等式》。
票房遇冷，但这不会阻碍AI影片进入院线。
旧模式不适合新电影
一部AI生成的影视作品，在小屏幕和大荧屏看，完全是两种场景和两套不同的标准及模式。
在小屏幕上追剧，休闲放松、高度碎片化，不好看、划走或关闭即可；电影院里，封闭的环境加上漆黑的视线，一块闪亮的屏幕聚焦了所有人的视线，主打一个沉浸感。所以，一部好的电影，需要长时间持续提供视觉和叙事上的吸引力。
从《三星堆：未来往事》来看，现在的AI工具显然难以支撑长片的剧本决策、角色连贯性与电影级美术审美。
但这仅仅是最直观的问题。《三星堆：未来往事》的遇冷，说明一部AI电影的票房表现可能就卡在“AI制作”这个标签上。相比少部分人在好奇心的驱使下去尝鲜，绝大部分观众保持了一种观望甚至是排斥的心态。究其原因，不单单是目前AI电影在视觉和叙事上的不及格，更关键的是“活人感”的缺失，而“活人感”的缺失是无法单纯依靠技术弥补的。
能认可AI电影的观众与无法认可AI电影的观众，AI电影只能在前一个流量盘子里找市场。
另一个更深层次的问题，则在于传统院线电影的商业模式与AI电影这一新产物不适配产生的矛盾。
首先就表现在价格体系上。电影从诞生到今天，行业一直遵循着「票房+版权收入」的商业模式，尤其是票房，当好莱坞巨头凭借家庭娱乐、主题乐园、衍生品等多元收入来源赚得盆满钵满时，我国偌大的电影产业依然是靠票房这一项收入支撑。而前几年，国内电影票房节节攀高，空前繁荣，又离不开一个关键要素，即涨价。
从2022年以来，我国电影的平均票价一直处在42元的“高位”，一线城市的电影票均价更是接近 49.6 元。
票价涨了，票房自然也跟着涨。但是，AI电影上映，继续维持这种高位的价格合适吗？显然不合适。据了解，《三星堆：未来往事》的票价在30元左右，这个价格比真人电影自然是低了不少，可它的遇冷说明了问题，当观众习惯了以免费的方式观看那些AI生产的内容，他们不想为其付出太高的成本。
传统院线需不需要围绕AI电影重新梳理价格体系，这是一个疑问，而另一个疑问是分账规则会不会变动。
影视公司拿AI做内容，成本可以降到1/10甚至更低，由此利润空间就变大了，可是影院的成本没有降。如果沿用原来的分账规则，受益的一方恐怕只有影视公司，那影院可能就不乐意了。
当AI颠覆了传统的影视制作流程，那这条产业链的利益分配或许也要重新改写。
AI电影也唤不回离开影院的年轻人
为什么这两年我国电影行业的票房撑不起来了？一个核心的原因是年轻人不想进电影院了。
根据《2025年中国电影市场洞察》显示，24岁以下观众占比从2019年的38%，一路暴跌至2025年的15%，6年缩水超六成。灯塔报告也证实，25岁以下观众的占比已从2017—2019年的近40%，滑落至2025年的15%。
取而代之的是偏年长观众。数据显示，观众的年龄结构在整体上移：25 至 34 岁人群仍以41.9% 的占比稳居绝对主力，但35 岁以上观众占比上升至 26.2%，同比增长 3.5 个百分点。
影院冷清，一部分原因自然归咎于优秀影片的短缺，但年轻人普遍远离电影院，潜藏着娱乐习惯的改变。用简单一句话解释，年轻人休闲娱乐的方式渐渐朝着更新颖、更能提供情绪价值或带来体验感的项目转移了，看电影这个习惯正在慢慢从不少年轻人的生活中消失，或是频率降低。
“几年前的周六晚上，我的朋友圈会晒电影票根和爆米花。可现在要问我和朋友们都在哪里？我会说，可能在Livehouse看乐队巡演，可能在推理店玩剧本杀，也可能在家刷短视频和短剧。”一位00后表示。
作为一个新产物，AI电影对于喜欢尝鲜的年轻人来讲，具有一定的吸引力，可它未必能让年轻人回流到影院。
一方面，年轻人接触的AI内容越多，对AI内容的审视其实越严苛；就目前远未成熟的AI影视作品而言，相比于花钱去电影院，他们对居家观看AI电影的接受度反而更高一些，这也恰恰迎合了年轻人观影场景从影院向客厅转移的趋势。
另一方面，年轻人远离电影院的一个核心点，是因为观影的社交属性正在弱化，或者说年轻人不再把影院作为线下社交的主要场景。数据显示，今年暑期档单人观影比例连续四年上涨，已经达到了28%。其中《蜘蛛侠：崭新之日》单人观影占比31.2%、《奥德赛》单人观影占比 39.4%、《四渡》占比37.1%、《空枪》占比29.7%……
AI电影只是对内容制作的变革，它能让影片的供给进入大爆炸时代，并没有办法增强观影的社交属性。
不可否认，AI对电影产业的革新无疑是颠覆性的，只是，它对于这一门艺术带来的究竟是毁灭还是重塑，我们目前依然无法确定。或许未来当大众周围到处充斥着AI生成的“新艺术”，影院将成为保留真人感的最后一方净土。但届时，它可能更无人光顾了。
本文由 AI图鉴自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
Man, Zheng, Do-do is reasonable.
This year's court line is exceptionally cold.
In the first class, 160 million yuan in the first day's ticket room and 700 million yuan in the total number of tickets in the entire slot, the figure is close to the peak of 1.5 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024. It's in the 11th. The box office is still pitiful. The total number of film booths is 1,165 million, and the number of people watching is 319,959, representing a decrease of 37 per cent from last year ' s, and a direct return to 2014 levels compared to previous years ' data.
“We thought that last year had reached its bottom, and now it seems that it is still below,” a project manager of the Beijing Film Distribution Company said.
In this cold, a film called " The Three Stars: The Past " was shown quietly. With multiple labels such as full-process AI production, the first Ai court movie, future technology, etc., the film has received some attention, and the capital market has shown unprecedented excitement, but its ticket offices are lower than expected:
According to the lighthouse's specialized edition, the film was shown at $17,000 in the screening room and at $301,000 in the premiere. As at 1600 hours on 26 October, the cumulative combined ticket room (including pre-sale) was $1216,000, with a total of 41,000 viewers and AI projected a total of $2.609 million.
It seems that the audience doesn't want to pay.
It's probably the time of "Ai Breath."
Three Stars: The Future is dedicated to a full AI, which is not a one-key generation.
In order to complete the film, Bona had invested for almost two years in technological exploration. According to media reports, the production team produced more than 1.2 million background maps, carried out 100 full-film series and involved nearly 100 participants, taking into account the 17 professional divisions of photography, lighting, art, etc., of the traditional reality groups. "The shot Consistency AI can't do it on its own, the first second face of the role is off the back of the second, and it's all in the eye," by Chiang De, the producer.
Unfortunately, the cinema audience did not feel this goodwill. “The dynamics of the person appear very rigid, most of the time the woman is a sadist face, and the mood of the person has not changed, the face of the scene has been lost, and the next shot has suddenly cried”, one of the netizens said, “it is impossible to create a sense of incarnation.
A large screen was projected and the defects created by AI in the face, movement and shot connection were undoubtedly magnified. For example, the person who had just discovered the clue that he had decided to go to the mountains, shot everything, had arrived; after an avalanche, he had cut another shot and had stood at the door of the monument. There's a lot of details for the audience: the character was on foot in snowhills wearing leather shoes and shirts, everyone was almost harmless after an avalanche, everyone else was blown down when the ship landed, a kid on his knees was naked...
Of course, there are also netizens who say that the film is more visual than expected, and that many of the images look close to the big picture.
It is naturally not appropriate to look at this first-time-on-the-screen AI film in the judgement of a mature film, the greatest value of which for the industry is to cast stones.
An AI film, from project setting, production, review, filing, distribution to presentation, was taken once in its entirety for the first time and answered that the AI film could be successfully accessed. More importantly, key issues such as the market acceptance of AI films, the effect of magnifying the screen and commercial returns provide an effective reference for markets.
And the “delivery” of an AI film on a large screen, from failure to pass to success, may require innumerable water tests, which means that more and more AI films will appear in front of the audience.
In the 2026 semi-annual newspaper, the Bonaille film industry mentioned that, with the exception of the " Three Stars: The Future ", the science-fiction animation film " Out of Plans: Operation Pandemic " and the mythical animated film " The City of Robra, the City of China. Shortly ago, China filmed the official publish full AI production of the 3D animated series " 500 years of the disappearance of the Western Traveler ", which is expected to go online in 2027, and will be followed by exploring the space for the development of the institutional version.
In addition, the publish had previously produced an AI film entitled “H.A.A. Fire”, which covered nine A. shorts and one A. film, “Orahin.
The ticket room was cold, but this would not prevent the AI film from entering the court line.
Old patterns are not for new movies.
An AI-generated video work, on both small screens and large screens, is entirely two scenarios and two different sets of standards and models.
Following on small screens, relaxing, highly fragmenting, unseemly, rowing or closing; in cinemas, closed environments are accompanied by dark visions, a bright screen focuses on the eyes of all and the master strikes a feeling of insinuation. A good film, therefore, requires a long period of continuous visual and narrative attraction.
From The Three Stars: The Past, it is clear that the current AI tool is not able to sustain long film script decisions, role coherence and film-class art aesthetics.
But this is only the most intuitive question. The coldness of Tristar: The Future suggests that the performance of an AI movie's ticket room may be stuck on the label "Ai Made". The vast majority of viewers maintain a lookout or even an exclusionary mentality, compared to a small number of people who are driven by curiosity. The reason for this is not just the current failure of the AI film in terms of vision and narrative, but, more importantly, the lack of a “living sense”, which cannot be compensated by technology alone.
Audiences who are able to recognize an AI film and those who are unable to recognize an AI film can only find a market in the previous stream.
Another deeper problem lies in the contradiction between the business model of traditional institutional films and the unsuitability of the new production of the Al film.
The first is in the price system. Since its birth, the industry has been following the business model of "vote house + copyright income" — especially in the case of the box office — and when the Hollywood giant earns a lot of money from a variety of sources of income, such as family entertainment, theme park, derivatives, the country’s huge film industry continues to be supported by a ticket office. In the past few years, however, there has been an unprecedented boom in the country ' s cinema, owing to a key factor, namely, price increases.
Since 2022, the average fare for our films has been “higher” at $42, and the average fare for first-line cities has been close to $49.6.
The fare has risen and the ticket room has naturally risen. But is it appropriate for the Al film to continue to maintain this high price? Obviously not. It is understood that the ticket price of Three Stars: The Future is in the range of $30, which is naturally much lower than a real movie, but its cold is a sign of the problem, and when viewers are used to view the content of AI production free of charge, they do not want to pay too much for it.
The need for traditional court lines to rearrange the price system around the Ai film is a question, while another question is whether the rules for the division of accounts will change.
Video companies have used AI for content and the cost can be reduced to one tenth or even lower, thereby increasing the profit margin, but the cost of cinemas has not decreased. If the original split rule were to be followed, the beneficiary would probably be a film company and the cinema might not be happy.
When AI subverts the traditional video production process, the distribution of benefits of the industry chain may also have to be rewritten.
I can't call back the young people who left the theater.
Why can't our ticket offices in the film industry last two years? A central reason is that young people don't want to go to cinema.
According to the China Film Market Insight 2025, the proportion of viewers under 24 years of age fell from 38 per cent in 2019 to 15 per cent in 2025 and over 60 per cent in six years. The lighthouse reports also confirm that the proportion of people under 25 years of age fell from nearly 40 per cent in 2017-2019 to 15 per cent in 2025.
It was replaced by an older audience. The data show that the age structure of the audience is moving upwards overall: while the proportion of people aged 25 to 34 is still 41.9 per cent, the proportion of people over 35 years of age has risen to 26.2 per cent, an increase of 3.5 percentage points over the same period.
While cinemas are cold, due in part to the shortage of excellent films, young people are generally far from cinemas and conceal changes in recreational habits. In a simple sentence, the way young people play and play is moving towards newer projects that offer emotional value or experience, and the habit of watching films is slowly disappearing from the lives of many young people or decreasing the frequency.
“A few years ago on Saturday night, my friend's circle sunburned the ticket stubs and popcorn. But now, where are my friends and I? I would say that it's possible to watch a band tour in Livehouse, maybe play a script killing in a reason store, or do short video and a short play at home.
As a new product, the AI film is attractive to young people who like to taste it, but it does not necessarily bring young people back to the cinema.
On the one hand, the more people come to see AI, the more critical it is to look at the content; in the case of the far-fetched AAI videos, the greater acceptance of the AAI films at home is compared to spending money on cinemas, which coincides with the tendency of young people to move from the cinema to the living room.
On the other hand, young people are moving away from one of the central points of cinemas because the social attributes of viewing are weakening, or because young people no longer use cinema as the main scene of online socialization. The data show that for the fourth consecutive year, the single-person viewing rate has risen to 28 per cent. Of these, Spider-Man: New Day accounted for 31.2 per cent of single-person viewing, Odyssey 39.4 per cent of single-person viewing, Four Dynasty 37.1 per cent of " Sky Guns " 29.7 per cent.
The AI film is just a change in content production, and it allows the supply of films to enter the age of the Big Bang, and does not have the means to enhance the social attributes of viewing.
It is undeniable that AI ' s innovation in the film industry is undoubtedly subversive, except that it remains uncertain whether it will bring about destruction or a reshaping of this art. Perhaps in the future, the cinema will be the last place to preserve the true sense of the world when the public is surrounded by "new art" created by AI. But by then, it might be far less visited.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.