AI在挑战大多数工作,不只是Devs
AI在挑战大多数工作,对我来说,首相应该很担心
密码吐槽器被煮熟了,让我们在这里诚实地接受命运,让每个人都能继续前进。
建筑师不是,因为不管任何模型的准确度如何,使它在安全+遵守+技术能力+预算+的限制范围内服务于你,......需要私人数据,人际会议和技能,使得今天难以或不可能自动化。
GenAI,对我来说,其余的10%由于他们的天赋而解锁了甚至更多的价值,这无法复制。
现在,genAI正在以同样的方式威胁devs:像我这样的平庸人不会在10x开发者与AI超充电的情况下生存(直到他们也被超充电的AI agents取代). 但是,等待吗?直到他们被超级充电的人工智能所取代
但不只是虔诚者,记住!首相也因为同样的原因面临严重危险:当任何首相能够仅仅触发一个特征时,当一个dev触发一个特征时会发生什么?由你来决定,PM在理解一个特性为何比开发者有意义时,会更有能力。 不过,如果你做的对的话,正在发生的事情是,同一人编码一个特性,也可以建立PM的直觉,为什么这个特性需要建造。 后者来自LLM. 因为代码很便宜,所以有更多的时间投资来理解客户的疼痛点和公司解决方案(不仅仅是软的:设计权衡,十年前的假设与今天的假设是什么,等等。 )
我从小就以"技术人"的区别来成长,需要"产品人". 我不是否认它,我只是说,世界正在进入一个阶段,在这个阶段,两个角色最终都融为一体。
并且,这个产品的家伙,不管他的资历如何,应该非常担心,除非他能展示建筑技能,这是人类智慧的最后堡垒之一。
为了透明起见,我是一个程序员,我开发了过去四年的数据营销产品,然后搬到Cloudflare,去他们最近的收购,YC公司扎拉兹工作。
说到个人,这并不意味着我是来评判的:世界绝对不是按照我对基因AI的使用方式运行的,我只是担心“部分”然后“我们的全部”职业会消失。 我想首相应该更自觉一点,比如分析一个文本文件,语言允许您用14行代码进行
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AI is challenging most jobs, not just devs
AI is challenging most jobs, not just devs. And, to me, PM should seriously worrry.
Code spitters are cooked, let's be honest here and accept the fate so everyone can move on.
Architects aren't, because whatever the accuracy of any model, making it serves you need within the constraints of security + compliance + technical capabilities + budget + ... requires private data, interpersonal meetings and skills that make it hard or impossible to automate today.
genAI, to me, feels like the same threat as Instagram for professional photographs: 90% of photographs lost their moat against 16 yo taking pictures with their phones. The remaining 10% unlocked even more value because of their talent, that could not be copied.
Now, genAI is threatening devs in the same way: mediocre like me won't survive against 10x developers supercharged with AI (until they also get replaced by supercharged AI agents. But wait? Until they also get replaced by supercharged AI swarms with... bref!)
But it's not just devs, mind you! PMs are also severely endangered for the same reasons: when any PM can just prompt a feature, what happens when a dev prompt a feature too? It's up to you to think that PM are better equipped when it comes to understanding why a feature make sense than a developer. What's happening, though, and if you are doing things right, is that the same person coding a feature can also build PM intuition as to why this feature needs to be built at all. The latter comes from LLM. Because since code is cheap, there's more time to invest in understanding the customer pain point and the company solution (not just the soft: the design trade-offs, what were the assumptions 10 years ago versus today, etc...)
I grew up with the distinction of "tech guy" needs a "product guy". I am not dismissing it, I am just saying that the world is entering into a phase where both roles are eventually melting into a single function.
And that the product guy, whatever his seniority, should be seriously worried*unless he can demonstrate architecture skills, which is one of the last bastion of human intelligence.
For the sake of transparency, I am a programmer, I've developed data marketing products for the last four years before moving to Cloudflare to work on their, recently acquired, YC company Zaraz.
To close on a more personal note, that doesn't mean I am here to judge: the world is *definitely not* running the way I'd like regarding genAI usage and I am just afraid that "part" and then "our whole" profession disappear. I guess that PMs should be a little more self-aware and start consolidating skills that will work. Like analysing a text file, with a language that lets you do it in just 14 lines of codes
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