美国人口调查局和“超级情报”

美国人口调查局和“超级情报”

2026年11月2日 (英语).

今天有人提醒我，AI大公司收养率趋势下降，这是阿波罗全球管理公司于2025年9月制作的一张图表，该图表显示美国公司AI的收养速度以美国人口调查局收集的数字为基础出现放缓。当时我用该图表来演示GPT-5数据分析，然后用Claude的新代码解释器进行实验。我决定再次尝试运行这些数字，看看在过去一年里发生了什么变化，在这样做的过程中，我了解到该局违反了第14434号行政命令，这是Asinine Super Intelligence one。

首先，更新的图表

美国人口普查局每两周进行一次调查，称为商业趋势和展望调查(aka BTOS)。每一次，在120万个企业中，就有20万个企业参加了调查，即调查组( " 小组 " )的周期，每12周就有一个企业完成调查。

最新数据于上午10时轮流公布。

我用最新数字(公布于2026年10月22日)来创建AI收养图的新版本，更新后既反映过去12个月的情况，也反映对主席团发出的调查问题的修改：

比较一下，这是去年的AI收养图(我的GPT-5版本):

2025年9月，最大的(250+雇员)公司在大约12%的时间里回答“是”他们是否在“生产商品或服务”中使用AI的问题。

在新的“任何业务职能”措辞下，到2026年2月，这些大公司回答“是”的时间约为30%，到2026年10月，答复率已增加到40%左右。

上图的数据来自“就业规模类”XLSX文件，可从这里得到。以下是我使用的文件副本。

你可以看看发给企业的调查文件

问题语言的变化

如图表所示，主席团提出的问题在2025年11月17日发生了实质性变化。在该日期之前，他们提出的问题是：

在过去两周里，这家企业是否利用人工智能生产商品或服务？(AI的例子：机器学习，自然语言处理，虚拟agents，语音识别等).

2025年12月3日，主席团宣布对该问题有重大改变。以下为替换：

在过去两周里，这家企业是否在其任何业务职能中使用人工智能(AI)? (AI的例子：机器学习，自然语言处理，虚拟agents，语音识别等).

不再 " 生产商品或服务 " ----现在它 " 在其任何业务职能中 "！这意味着11月17日前后对问题的答案并不直接可比。

从2026年10月19日开始他们问超级情报

寻找最新XLSX文件中更新的问题语言时，我发现这个：

在过去两周里，这家企业是否在其任何业务职能中使用了超级情报或SI(前称人工情报或AI)? (SI使用的例子包括：SI动力数据分析；用于营销，产品设计，或编码的基因SI；用于客户服务的虚拟SI agents;SI动力预测或定价；SI驱动的用于质量控制的计算机视觉等).

有关页面的BTOS解释：

从2026年10月19日的收集开始，由于第14434号行政命令，对文书措辞进行了更新。

目前的数字反映了以前的人工情报调查措辞——反映超级情报措辞的第一次调查结果定于星期四公布。

这会影响调查吗？

这里显而易见的未决问题是，这一措辞的改变是否会影响调查结果。

回答这项调查的企业将在12周前最后一次看到这个问题，当时它仍被称为AI. 希望新语言不会混淆它们，特别是因为调查有益地阐述了“以前称为人工智能或人工智能”。

我忍不住嘲笑“SI动力数据分析；用于营销、产品设计或编码的基因SI；用于客户服务的虚拟SI agents”的荒谬性。

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本文由 AI图鉴自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。

The U.S. Census Bureau and “Super Intelligence”

2nd November 2026

I was reminded today of AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies, a chart produced by Apollo Global Management in September 2025, which appeared to show a slowdown in U.S. corporate AI adoption based on numbers collected by the U.S. Census Bureau. At the time I used that chart to demonstrate GPT-5 data analysis, and then to experiment with Claude’s new Code Interpreter. I decided to try running those numbers again to see what had changed over the past year, and in doing so learned that the Bureau has fallen foul of Executive Order 14434, aka the asinine Super Intelligence one.

First, the updated chart

Every two weeks the U.S. Census Bureau runs a survey called the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (aka BTOS). Each time it goes to 200,000 businesses out of 1.2 million total—the surveyed group (a “panel”) cycles such that an individual business only completes the survey every twelve weeks.

The latest data is published on alternating Thursdays at 10am.

I used the most recent numbers (published October 22, 2026) to create a new version of the AI adoption chart, updated to reflect both the last twelve months and a change that was made to the survey question sent out by the Bureau:

For comparison, here’s that AI adoption chart from last year (my GPT-5 version):

In September 2025 the largest (250+ employees) companies answered “yes” around 12% of the time to the question about whether they used AI in “producing goods or services”.

Under the new “any business function” wording, by February 2026, those same large companies answered “yes” around 30% of the time, and by October 2026 that had increased to around 40%.

The data in the above chart comes from the “Employment size class” XLSX file, available from here. Here’s a copy of the file I used.

You can view the survey document that is sent out to businesses—here’s my snapshot copy of that 346KB PDF.

The changing language of the questions

As the chart demonstrates, the question asked by the Bureau changed in a material way on November 17th, 2025. Prior to that date, the question they asked was this (emphasis mine):

In the last two weeks, did this business use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in producing goods or services? (Examples of AI: machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, voice recognition, etc.)

On December 3rd, 2025, the Bureau announced a significant change to that question. Here’s the replacement:

In the last two weeks, did this business use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in any of its business functions? (Examples of AI: machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, voice recognition, etc.)

No more “producing goods or services”—now it’s “in any of its business functions”! This means that the answers to the question before and after November 17th are not directly comparable.

From October 19, 2026, they ask about Super Intelligence

When I went looking for the updated question language in the latest XLSX file, I couldn’t find it. I found this instead:

In the last two weeks, did this business use Super Intelligence or SI (formerly referred to as Artificial Intelligence or AI) in any of its business functions? (Examples of SI use include: SI-powered data analysis; generative SI for marketing, product design, or coding; virtual SI agents for customer service; SI-powered forecasting or pricing; SI-driven computer vision for quality control, etc.)

The BTOS about page explains what happened:

Beginning with the October 19, 2026 collection, instrument wording was updated due to Executive Order 14434.

The current numbers reflect the old Artificial Intelligence survey wording—the first survey results reflecting the Super Intelligence wording are due for publication on Thursday.

Is this going to affect the survey?

The obvious open question here is whether this wording change is going to affect the survey results.

The businesses answering this survey will have last seen that question twelve weeks ago, when it was still called AI. Hopefully the new language isn’t going to confuse them, especially since the survey helpfully spells out “formerly referred to as Artificial Intelligence or AI”.

I can’t help but laugh at the absurdity of “SI-powered data analysis; generative SI for marketing, product design, or coding; virtual SI agents for customer service” though.

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