马克·罗文讲述了阿波罗的区别策略是如何为这个时刻构建的。
2026年10月24日 (英语).
技术部门之外没有AI Payoff的迹象
尽管在人工智能方面进行了大量投资并广泛流传，但该技术已经为技术以外的美国公司带来了零财政回报。 Mag 7的工人人均收入正在增加，但S&P 493的收入是平的，见下表。 Mag 7的利润率正在上升，但S&P 493的利润率是平的，见下表。 而目前仍然没有AI刺激生产力增长的迹象，见下图第三。 主流公司美国正在退缩，并开始将象征性支出看成不是增长来源
VC支持的公司越来越多地花费在代币上，但主流公司美国并不需要最新的模型，不愿为此付出代价。 只要代理AI和象征性支出仅限于经济的一小部分，AI的宏观经济影响将非常有限，见下文第四和第五图。
展望未来的问题是，即使模型变得商品化，主流公司美国能否将越来越廉价的智能转化为更高的收入增长和更高的利润幅度。 这也许比听起来更难。 AI可能是一个很好的计算器，但在商业上，智能大多是判断。 判断取决于上下文，答案与你要求的人类或模型不同。 也许最重要的是，大赦国际不理解问责制、信任、文化、不成文规则、道德权衡或公平，所有这些都决定了声誉风险，并最终推动收入增长和利润幅度。
底线是AI的故事将在S&P 493中，而不是Mag 7中决定，至今没有证据表明收入增长或利润在技术部门之外正在改善。
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No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector
Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech. Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493, see the first chart below. Profit margins are rising for the Mag 7 but are flat for the S&P 493, see the second chart below. And there are still no signs of AI boosting productivity growth, see the third chart below. With no impact on the bottom line, mainstream corporate America is pulling back and starting to view token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost center that weighs on margins.
VC-backed companies are spending more and more on tokens, but mainstream corporate America does not need the latest model and is unwilling to pay for it. As long as agentic AI and token spending are confined to a small part of the economy, the macroeconomic effects of AI will be very limited, see the fourth and fifth charts below.
The question looking ahead is whether, even as models become commoditized, mainstream corporate America can turn increasingly cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and higher profit margins. That may be harder than it sounds. AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment. Judgment depends on context, and the answer varies with which human or which model you ask. Perhaps most importantly, AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs or fairness, all of which shape reputational risk and ultimately drive revenue growth and profit margins.
The bottom line is that the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7, and so far, there is no evidence that revenue growth or margins are improving outside the tech sector.
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