文 | 巨潮WAVE，作者｜谢泽锋，编辑｜杨旭然
当机器人行业还在争论何时能真正落地时，下游却是另一种景象。
如今当一位求职者留言询问某家所谓“机器人公司”是否还在招聘测试岗时，他面对的可能并非智元、银河通用之类的机器人主机厂，更有可能的其实是那些负责商业化落地的公司。
他们的生意甚至比机器人主机厂火爆不少，这些“二开”企业熟知各品牌机器人的二次开发，也熟悉下游应用场景的各种需求，他们成为机器人产业链中相当重要的存在。
和生产端的踌躇不前不同，机器人下游呈现出了阶段性的“繁荣”景象。其中智元的投入颇为积极，不仅发起成立了机器人租赁赛道独角兽擎天租，还大力孵化机器人内容IP、开设机器人主题乐园等；宇树收入除了教育科研方面，舞蹈演绎也成为其应用层面最清晰的标签。
涌向商演、会展、婚庆、游学、体育竞技、演唱会等场景的机器人越来越多，催生出一批租赁/RaaS（机器人即服务）公司，一些头部租赁企业甚至完成多轮融资。
在猎奇和情绪消费的需求带动下，这些机器人并非找到了真正的PMF（Product-Market Fit，产品契合市场），而是卡在了Demo到商业化落地之间，形成了一种类似于科普的过渡生意。
这也是具身智能发展历史中，一种颇为奇特的商业景象。
“二开”生意
人形机器人是一个需要精准适配，且需要不断调参和优化的高科技产品。卖出一台机器人 ，只是其具体使用过程的第一步。
原厂机器人就像厂家造了一辆车，二次开发就是在这辆车上加装导航、换音响、调整动力输出，使其更适合自己的需求。而且汽车更接近于标品，机器人天生就要比汽车复杂得多。
在社交媒体上，已经有不少机器人二开公司，他们帮助终端客户调整动作、适配场景，并提供租赁、场景策划等服务。
当前，一台机器人价格昂贵，售价在十几万到50万不等，如果客户只买一两台，却需要大量定制化开发，原厂商为此单独组织研发团队，这笔账就算不过来。
而且，厂商完成了“从0到1”，机器人实现从“1到N”，最终真正上岗还要付出巨大的时间和试错成本。比如，乐聚给兆丰机电配置了15台「夸父」机器人，但为了让机器人“学会”这些工作，双方磨合了近一年时间。机器人最初连抓稳零件都很困难，仅抓取动作就反复训练了1.5万次。
对于终端客户而言，采购占用大量资金也不划算，转而租赁不失为折中的良策。本体厂商接到需求后，也会根据项目规模和开发难易度，再把一部分活分给合作伙伴。一些二开公司还会拿出10%的返利给本体厂商。
今年4月，智元董事长邓泰华就明确表示，智元与头部客户完成「0到1」之后，还需要依靠生态伙伴实现「1到N」的场景推广。2025年智元合作伙伴销售占比就有1/4，2026年的目标是60%。足见“二手商”合作伙伴对行业的重要性。
市场需求是现实的真实映射。
去年底，智元与飞阔科技等成立擎天租，主营机器人租赁，由飞阔科技创始人李一言担任CEO。这家公司的设立，标志着智元对租赁模式的高度认可。
今年5月，擎天租完成A轮及A+轮融资，本轮融资完成后，估值达到70亿元，正式跻身独角兽行列。同赛道的玩家中，万机易租最新投后估值10亿元，京东租赁自营店也已上线各类机器人租赁服务。
这些租赁公司就像汽车产业链中的4S店，就如李一言所说的，租赁不仅大幅降低试错成本，还能收集大量来自一线的产品优化反馈，反向供给机器人厂商迭代产品。有数据显示，只要提供租赁选项，90%用户会优先选择租赁模式。
二开公司相当于一个对接中枢，上游对接生产商，下游嫁接需求者，可以帮企业解决大部分销量问题，同时二开公司对各种机器人产品更为熟悉，也更能给客户提供适配的解决方案。
因此，二开生态是现实所需，也是产业所需。它是机器人赛道发展历史阶段的必然产物。
商业实验
在机器人尚未进入工厂和家庭的历史阶段，全社会掀起了一场轰轰烈烈的商业落地实验。
一种是情绪体验。某个租赁平台数据显示，约65%的机器人应用订单是一次性商演，包括开业迎宾、展会暖场、婚礼递戒指等等。确切的说，这些客户购买的并非机器人的智能和劳动，而是为吸引流量或者满足自己目标客户的某些猎奇心理。
养老领域有许多陪伴与心理疏导机器人已经上岗。如广西采购了35台孚宝KZ100投放福利院、社区养老照料中心，为老人做心理疏导和日常陪伴；“悠妮”小型陪聊机器人，月租80元，对75岁以上老人补贴后仅40元，他能听懂普通话和上海话，主打解闷、聊天和陪伴。
这类机器人对运动能力基本上没有要求，主要功能点在于能感知、识别人类情感，并依此做出对应的互动反馈，其核心诉求是实现机器与人类的情感交互。
面对青少年群体，机器人发挥的空间也很大。在开学仪式、运动会甚至小孩子的生日宴上，机器人也会被邀请——也就是租来暖场和互动。
文旅、商业演出也是机器人频繁出现的场景。由迪士尼幻想工程团队联合英伟达、Google DeepMind打造的雪宝机器人在迪斯尼乐园“营业”；宇树机器人也是王力宏演唱会上的常客。
智元还和珠海长隆打造了全球首个大规模具身智能主题乐园，部署了300台机器人，覆盖表演、研学、导览、讲解等等项目。
还有一种是功能性替代，主要是帮助搬运行李、医院问诊/银行服务导航等。
成都海洋公园里，“爱湫”人形机器人可以当店长，长虹虹晞在绵阳中华大熊猫苑当导游，在上海家电博览会上担任迎宾礼仪和展台讲解员。这类简单机械性的工作，是目前机器人可以进行大规模部署的场景。
此外，Robot Mall和机器人剧场是两类比较新奇的落地形态。近两年来，“机器人4S/6S/7S 店”不断涌现，它们卖的不只是机器人，还有体验、租赁、培训、研学和产业对接。
今年3月，波士集团、机械伊甸与优必选深度合作的全球首个“双4S店”（“机器人4S店+汽车4S店”）开业，该项目由北京亦庄Robot Mall赋能，与宇树、优必选、商汤科技、乐森等企业达成合作。店内不光可以观看机器人表演，还提供售卖、租赁机器人服务。
全球首家机器人6S店也已于去年7月在深圳龙岗开业，在销售、零配件、售后、信息反馈之外，叠加了Share（租赁）和School（培训）服务。
在文艺赛道，有机器人已经当起了演员。鹿明机器人与深圳文旅合作的《机器人和TA的朋友们》舞台剧，目前已经实现常态化演出。
智元在这方面也进行了一些布局，发布了“机器人武侠IP绝世高手”，并推出了微短剧系列；宇树G1在音乐剧《机器人生》中饰演女一号“玲玲”；电影《百年回响·星际守护：小夏》在宁夏开机，机器人已经开始抢夺演员们的饭碗。
不过，上述商业场景仅仅是机器人应用的冰山一角。目前，机器人表现出在服务场景放量、情感陪伴和民生保障快速跟进，B端采购、商业运营、C端消费三层并行的局面。
残酷账本
在机器人下游应用繁荣的表象之下，残酷的商业法则从来没有失效过。
一年前，机器人日租金最高可以达到3万元，而现在跌到只有2000元。去年，有热钱冲进机器人租赁行当，最红火的时候行业里流传着“半年回本”的说法，一年后，主流人形机器人全包日租降到3000—6000元，基础机型跌破2000元，机器狗裸机最低160元一天。
价格跌掉了七到九成，市场却日益繁荣。一方面是机器人出货量大幅增加，2025年中国人形机器人出货1.44万台，而今年上半年出货就超过4万台。供给增加的同时，机型在不断迭代，新机型算力更高、性能更强，老机型只能被迫降价出租。
作为行业头部企业，李一言表示，擎天租过去接近一年的总交易额（GMV）约35亿元，未来三年的目标是累计营收100亿元。相当于计划在三年内创造当前整个行业一年的市场规模。
租赁表面看是一门好生意，剔除各类成本后，单日租赁毛利丰厚，然而这是假设每台机器每日都能出租的“理想状态”，假设每天都有人租。
租赁生意最怕的就是空置，在头部平台获得机器人企业助力和资本加持后，大量中小租赁公司和二开企业将面临巨大挑战，在空置率大幅提升后不得不退出市场。
Robot Mall业态也极为考验运营商的资金链，北京亦庄Robot Mall机器人4S店自开业以来，营业额已突破6000万元，其背后有亦庄国资的支持。
贵阳的机器人6S店目前面临的，则是月度流水无法覆盖运营成本的窘境，这家位于荔星中心的门店由华笈智能机器人公司运营，累计投入接近1000万元。开业以来，门店客流量显著超出预期，但月度流水和成本之间仍相差40%。
“亏损在预料之中，我们给自己预留了3年的试错期，力争在一到两年内实现扭亏为盈。”运营方称，门店2026年的目标是收入500万元以上，2027年计划实现20%至50%的增长。
这样的门店并非个案。有统计显示，截至2026年7月底，全国6S店已覆盖23座城市，但多数门店依赖地方政策与产业资源扶持，纯市场化盈利模型仍在探索。
文娱业态维度，《机器人和TA的朋友们》已经常态化，说明已经把剧场做成“常态化生意”； 智元则是“一鱼多吃”，通过打造机器人IP，既卖硬件，又输出内容IP，同时通过主题乐园、“机器人奇妙夜”等扩大声量。
但这些文娱项目，将机器人的商业衡量因子从“能不能售卖或出租”变成了“能不能持续卖出票”，考验的是合作方的上座率和票价。
影视给应用端带来的其实是机器人产品在社会层面的“破圈”：一部电影、一支广告、一个综艺，能让机器人品牌进入大众视野，进而带动租赁、文旅、零售。整体上看，也是机器人面向市场完成初期普及的一部分。
写在最后
进入2026年，机器人赛道资本浪潮汹涌澎湃，但机器人没有大规模走进客厅或者工厂，却先走上了舞台、商场或者体育馆。这可能是很多人所没有提前预料到的现实。
冷静分析，可以发现这是机器人产业发展过程中的某种必然。价格昂贵、维修困难、应用功能尚无法确定的情况下，消费者很难直接挥舞钞票，在游乐园、舞台上、甚至是孩子的生日会上多看一看，再下定决心自己买一部回家，是更加顺畅和理想的消费状态。
一场围绕注意力、营销流量和场景服务的“有限商业化”或者“阶段性商业化”，不可避免地横在了机器人主机厂和家庭消费的中间。
可以预见的是，这个历史阶段注定还会持续一定的时间。
本文由 AI图鉴自动抓取并翻译，版权归原作者所有；如需查看原文请点下方链接。
♪ We've got a big wave ♪
When the robot industry is still debating when it will actually land, downstream is another picture.
Now when a job-seeker leaves a message asking whether a so-called “robots company” is still recruiting a test post, he may not be facing a robotic mainframe such as Jiwon, Galaxy and more likely to be a commercialized company.
Their business is even more explosive than the robot mainframe, and these “two-part” firms are familiar with the secondary development of brands of robots, and with the demands of downstream applications, and they become a significant presence in the robot industry chain.
Unlike the hesitation at the end of production, robotic downstream shows a staged “boom”. The investment of Ji-won was positive, not only in the establishment of a robot-rent unicorn, but also in the strong incubation of robotic content, the opening of robotic theme parks, etc. In addition to education and scientific research, dance performances are the clearest label in their application.
The growing number of robotics rushing to places such as commercials, fairs, weddings, study tours, sports competitions, concerts, etc., has led to the emergence of leasing/RaaS (a robot or service) companies, some head-lease companies even completing multiple rounds of financing.
Driven by the demand for hunting and emotional consumption, these robots do not find the real PMF, but are stuck between Demo and commercialization, creating a transition business similar to Cope.
It is also a strange business scene in the history of smart development.
"Two-Six" Business
Human robots are a high-tech product that requires precision and constant involvement and optimization. Selling a robot is just the first step in its actual use.
The original robot, like the manufacturer, built a car, and the second development was to install navigation, resound the sound, adjust the power output on the vehicle to better suit its needs. And cars are closer to the mark, and robots are born much more sophisticated than cars.
On social media, there are already a number of robotic second-tier companies that help end-users adjust their movements, adapt their scenes and provide services such as leasing, mapping, etc.
Currently, a robot is expensive and sold at between 100,000 and 500,000, and if a customer buys only one or two, it requires a large amount of customized development, for which the original manufacturer organizes a separate research and development team, the account will not come through.
Moreover, the manufacturer has completed "0 to 1" and the robot has achieved "1 to N" and it will ultimately cost a great deal of time and error. For example, the conglomerate has equipped the M.O.A. with 15 "example" robots, but in order for the robots to "teach" to do this, they have been grinding for almost a year. The robots initially had difficulty securing the parts, and they had been trained 15,000 times to capture the action alone.
For end-users, the large amount of money spent on procurement is not cost-effective, and renting is a good way to go. When the manufacturer receives demand, it also distributes a portion of its work to partners, depending on the size of the project and the ease of development. Some of the second-tier companies would also offer 10 per cent of their returns to their manufacturers.
In April of this year, Chairman Deng Taehua made it clear that after the completion of "0 to 1" with his head client, there was a need to rely on eco-partners to promote "1 to N" scenarios. In 2025, one quarter of the total share of intellectual capital partner sales was recorded, and the target for 2026 was 60 per cent. The importance of “second-hand” partners to industry is evident.
Market demand is a real picture of reality.
Towards the end of last year, Ji-won and the Great Technology Company set up the Grand Prix Leaf, the main robot, and Li Yi, the founder of the Great Technology Corporation, became CEO. The establishment of this company marked a high level of acceptance of the leasing model by Ji-won.
In May this year, Oxygen Leased completed the A and A+ rounds of financing, which, after completing the current round, brought the estimate to $7 billion and formally joined the unicorn. At the same time, the most recent lease price was $1 billion, and all types of robotic leasing services have been put on line in Kyoto's own rental shop.
These leasing companies, like 4S stores in the automotive industry chain, as Lee put it, not only significantly reduce the cost of trial error, but also collect a large number of optimized feedback from front-line products, which in turn supply the robotics manufacturer's iterative products. Data show that 90 per cent of users would prefer the lease model as long as the lease option was available.
Secondary companies are equivalent to a hub, upstream docking producers, and downstream demanders, which can help businesses solve most of their sales problems, while secondary firms are more familiar with various robotic products and offer better-fit solutions to customers.
Thus, two-part ecology is a realistic and industrial necessity. It's a necessary product of the historical stage of robotic track development.
Commercial experiments
At a stage in the history of robotics that have not yet entered factories and families, a huge commercial landing experiment has been launched throughout society.
One is emotional experience. According to some rental platform data, approximately 65 per cent of the robotic application orders are for one-time commercials, including openings, displays, wedding rings, etc. Rather than the intelligence and labour of robots, these customers purchase some of the eccentricity to attract traffic or to satisfy their target customers.
Many accompanying and psychological guidance robots have been put on duty in the area of old age. For example, Guangxi purchased 35 Fubao KZ100s for freebie homes, community old-age care centres to provide psychological guidance and day-to-day companionship for the elderly; Yoni's mini-talking robot, which rents $80 per month, is only $40 after the allowance for the elderly aged 75 years and over, and can understand Mandarin and Shanghai dialects, and detached, chatting and accompanying.
Such robots are largely unrequited for mobility, and their primary function is to be able to sense, recognize and respond to human emotions and thus provide interactive feedback, with the core demand being that the machine interact with human emotions.
In the case of young people, robots also have considerable space. At school openings, sports events and even birthday parties for children, robots are invited — i.e., rents to warm up and interact.
It is also a frequent scene of robotics. The snowbow robot, created by the Disney Fantasy Engineering Team in association with Ingleda and Google DeepMind, is “opened” in Disneyland; the wild tree robot is also a regular guest at Wang Liang's concert.
Ji-won and Everest also built the world ' s first large-scale intellectual theme park, with 300 robots deployed to cover performances, studies, guided tours, lectures, etc.
There is also a functional alternative, mainly to help with baggage, hospital consultations/banking services navigation, etc.
In Chengdu Marine Park, the "love" human robots can be shopkeepers, iris can be tour guides at the Smongyang China Large Panda, and hosts and stand lecturers at the Shanghai House Electronic Fair. Such simple mechanical work is the current scenario where robots can deploy on a large scale.
In addition, Robert Mall and the robotic theatre are two of the more novel forms of landing. In the last two years, the robots 4S/6S/7S shop has emerged, selling not only robots, but also experiences, leasing, training, research and industrial interfaces.
In March this year, the Boss Group, Mechanical Eden, and Eden, the world's first “two-four-S” ("Bob4S + four-S") partnership, was opened, with the capabilities of Robert Mall, also based in Beijing, to work with such companies as Woo-tree, the Best-Selection, Business-To-Taith Technology, and Loesson. The shop is not only able to watch robotic performances but also offers sales and leasing robotic services.
The world ' s first robot 6S shop was also opened in Shenzhen in July last year, with the addition of Share (rental) and School (training) services in addition to sales, spare parts, after-sales, feedback.
At the art track, robots have become actors. Deer robots, in partnership with the Shenzhen Wenzhen Brigade, " Robotics and the Friends of TA ", have now become a regular show.
Ji-won has also made a number of plans in this regard, and publish has launched a series of micro-short dramas called "The Robotics of the World"; Woo-G1 plays "Lingling" in the musical "Bobscrew"; and the film "The 100-year echoing Starguards: Summers" has been launched in Ningxia, and robots have begun to rob actors of their jobs.
However, the above-mentioned commercial scenario is only the tip of the iceberg for robotic applications. At present, robots show rapid follow-up in terms of the size of the service scene, emotional companionship and human security, with three parallel levels of B-end procurement, commercial operations and C-end consumption.
Cruel books
Under the appearance of a boom in the downstream application of robots, cruel commercial laws have never failed.
A year ago, the daily rent for robots was up to $30,000, but now it's only $2,000. Last year, hot money ran into a robot rental business, and the word “half-year-olds” was spread in the industry at the height of the fire. One year later, mainstream human robots were renting down to $3,000-$6,000 per day, the base machine fell to $2,000, and the naked machine had a minimum of $160 a day.
Prices fell by 70 to 90 per cent, while markets became more prosperous. On the one hand, there has been a significant increase in the volume of robots, with 144,000 Chinese robots in 2025, and more than 40,000 in the first half of this year. While the supply is increasing, the type of machine is constantly evolving, the new type of machine is more efficient and more efficient, and the old type is forced to rent at reduced rates.
As the head of the industry, Li Yi said that the total turnover (GMV) for the past nearly one year was about 3.5 billion yuan, with the goal of a cumulative profit of 10 billion yuan over the next three years. This is equivalent to the market size planned to create the entire industry within three years.
The lease appears to be a good business, with a single-day lease of a substantial amount after the elimination of various costs, but it is a “ideal state” that assumes that each machine can be rented on a daily basis and that it is rented daily.
The biggest fear of leasing is that it will be empty, and with the help of robotics and capital added to the front platform, a large number of small and medium-sized leasing companies and secondary firms will face enormous challenges and will have to exit the market after a significant increase in vacancy rates.
The Robot Mall business has also tested the financial chain of operators, with a turnover of over $60 million since the opening of the Robot Mall Robot 4S store in Beijing, backed by the State.
Guiyang’s robot 6S is currently facing a situation where monthly water flows do not cover operating costs. This door shop, located at the centre of Qin, is run by Wah’s smart robot company, with cumulative investment of nearly $10 million. Since its opening, door-to-door traffic has significantly exceeded expectations, but there is still a 40 per cent difference between monthly water flow and cost.
“In anticipation of the losses, we set ourselves a three-year trial error in order to achieve a one-to-two-year gain. According to the operator, the goal is to earn more than $5 million by 2026 and to achieve 20 to 50 per cent growth by 2027.
Such a shop is not a case in point. Statistics show that, as of the end of July 2026, 23 cities had been covered by 6S stores nationwide, but most of them were dependent on local policies and industrial resources, and pure market-based profit models were still being explored.
The cultural and recreational dimension, "Friends of Robots and TA" has become a regularity of the theatre; the think-won is a "fish eater" by building a robot IP, which sells both hardware and output, while increasing the volume of sound through theme parks and "meat night."
But these recreational projects, which turn the robot's commercial measurement factor from “is it selling or rentable” to “is it selling the ticket on a sustainable basis”, test the partner's upper seating and fare.
Filming brings to the end of the application the social “breeding” of robotic products: a film, an advertisement, an art that allows robotic brands to enter the public eye, and in turn, leads to leasing, literary and retail. Overall, it is part of the initial market-oriented diffusion of robots.
At the end.
In 2026, there was a surge of capital on the robot track, but the robot did not go into the living room or factory on a large scale, but went to the stage, the mall or the stadium. This may be a reality that many did not anticipate.
A calm analysis reveals that this is a certain necessity in the development of the robotic industry. When prices are high, maintenance difficulties are difficult, and applications are uncertain, it is difficult for consumers to wave money directly, watch more at playgrounds, stage, and even at children ' s birthdays, and resolve to buy one of their own, which is a smoother and desirable state of consumption.
A “limited commercialization” or “stage commercialization” of attention, marketing flows and scene services inevitably runs between robotic hosts and household consumption.
It is foreseeable that this period of history is bound to continue for some time.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.