42AI 发布，含62.5M美元，用于预测交易商在市场变得动荡时如何行动
以色列人工智能今天以6250万美元的资金启动42AI 发布，用于建设它所称的行为世界模型。
它的第一个客户是经纪商，他们想知道个体贸易商在市场变得动荡时会如何行动。 42AI提供软件，估计某人在特定情况下可能作出的每项选择的概率。 “行为不是决定性的；它始终是概率性的，”共同创始人兼行政长官Amit Gal-Or告诉TechCrunch。
公司将所了解的人变成个性特征的数学表现，一个以变压器为基础的世界模型从那里可以得出概率。 一个单独的语言模型写出每个预测的特征和上下文。
42AI 称经纪公司可以看到每个客户在未来24小时内可能进行的交易，包括仪器、方向和容量。 如果客户看起来会堆积成同一交易，一个风险台可以在其账簿上的曝光获得之前进行套期。 在登机时所做的了解客户检查是输入的一个来源，模型还权衡客户的通话频率和声音的情绪。
10个大型经纪公司正在与42AI公司合作，后者收取固定费用，或收取其帮助产生的价值的百分比。 收入达到7个数字，Gal-Or 称，但没有给出准确的数字。
根据公司的账户，一家经纪公司通过动态套期保值获得了约3000万美元的额外价值。 该公司在交易中还获得了声称98%的精度。 根据Gal-Or，该数字跟踪了交易是否在预测范围内进行，并且没有衡量每项交易的预测是否正确。
三年的研究进入模型。 数以千计的人在第一次研究中接受了心理评估，到小组进入政府和生物库数据集时，样本已经过200万。 现在，客户数据涉及大约3 000万人。
首席技术官Ehud Ezra和三位共同作者在2月份张贴的一篇论文中描述了其中的一部作品。 他们的大型行为模型对Meta平台股份有限公司的Llama 3.1的80亿参数版本进行了调整，从详细的心理测量剖面来预测一个人的战略选择。
在隐私方面，Gal-Or 称系统不需要个人识别信息，“模型永远不会知道这个人是谁”。 仍然通过链接账户活动为每个人建立简介。
被问及经纪商能否将这些预测与客户对立，创始人指出，监管、监测和内部道德委员会是对这种用途的检查。
赌博，预防欺诈和网络安全是42AI正在探索的下一个市场，帮助机器人和AI agents将人们理解为一个更长远的目标。 模式无论运行在何处，如果忽略了外部影响，例如商人根据同事的建议行事，就会失去准确性。 ”Gal-Or 称。
这6250万美元被42AI描述为种子资金，来自创始人和无限集团在三年时间里。 创始人兼主席Amir Gal-Or创立了无限集团。 获得2011年诺贝尔化学奖的丹·谢奇特曼是研究团队的顾问之一。 42AI计划筹集更多资金。
图片：42AI
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42AI launches with $62.5M to predict how traders act when markets turn volatile
Israeli artificial intelligence startup 42AI launched today with $62.5 million in funding to build what it calls a behavioral world model.
Its first customers are brokerages that want to know how individual traders will act when markets turn volatile. 42AI offers software that estimates the odds of each choice a person might make in a given situation. “Behavior is not deterministic; it’s constantly probabilistic,” co-founder and Chief Executive Amit Gal-Or told TechCrunch.
The company turns what it knows about a person into mathematical representations of personality traits, and a transformer-based world model works out the probabilities from there. A separate language model writes up which traits and context drove each prediction.
42AI says a brokerage can see what each client is likely to trade over the next 24 hours, including the instrument, the direction and the volume. If clients look set to pile into the same trade, a risk desk can hedge before the exposure lands on its book. Know-your-customer checks done at onboarding are one source of input, and the model also weighs how often a client calls and the sentiment in their voice.
Ten large brokerages are working with 42AI, which charges either a flat fee or a percentage of the value it helps generate. Revenue has reached seven figures, Gal-Or said, without giving a precise number.
By the company’s account, one brokerage gained about $30 million in additional value through dynamic hedging. The company also claims 98% accuracy on trades. That figure tracks whether trading flows land inside a predicted range, according to Gal-Or, and does not measure whether every individual trade was predicted correctly.
Three years of research went into the model. Thousands of people took psychological assessments in the first study, and by the time the team moved on to government and biobank datasets, the sample had passed 2 million. Customer data now spans about 30 million people.
Chief Technology Officer Ehud Ezra and three co-authors described one piece of the work in a paper posted in February. Their Large Behavioral Model adapts an 8 billion-parameter version of Meta Platforms Inc.’s Llama 3.1 to predict a person’s strategic choices from a detailed psychometric profile.
On privacy, Gal-Or said the system does not need personally identifiable information and that “the model never knows who the person is.” Profiles are still built for each individual from linked account activity.
Asked whether a brokerage could turn those predictions against its own clients, Ezra called it “a valid concern.” The founders pointed to regulation, monitoring and an internal ethics committee as checks on that kind of use.
Gaming, fraud prevention and cybersecurity are the next markets 42AI is exploring, with helping robots and AI agents understand people as a longer-term goal. Wherever it runs, the model loses accuracy when it misses outside influences, such as a trader acting on a colleague’s advice. “There’s a natural ceiling because you really don’t have access to everything that a person experiences,” Gal-Or said.
The $62.5 million, which 42AI describes as seed funding, came from the founders and Infinity Group over three years. Amir Gal-Or, the startup’s co-founder and chairman, founded Infinity Group. Dan Shechtman, who won the 2011 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, is among the advisers to the research team. 42AI plans to raise more money.
Image: 42AI
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