国际货币基金组织总裁警示人工智能对劳动力市场和税收的破坏性风险，呼吁政策制定者重新思考教育体系，即刻采取行动帮助社会适应变革。周一，格奥尔基耶娃在曼谷举行的IMF与世界银行年会首次亮相时称：“这是一场缓慢袭来的海啸，但终究仍是海啸。”
在一场探讨人工智能对就业影响的分论坛上，IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃表示，AI已经接管大量常规、重复性工作，削弱对人力的需求。与此同时，AI在建筑等行业催生更多低薪岗位，她称这“并非值得庆贺的局面”。
格奥尔基耶娃指出，这场转型会对公共财政产生深远影响。风险在于，经济重心将从劳动力转向资本，而劳动力历来是税收的主要来源，AI或将造成政府财政收入承压。
这是IMF最新发出的警示，提示AI可能对就业与全球经济形成冲击。受AI影响行业的青年求职者已遭遇招聘放缓，初级岗位新人面临更大压力。尽管全球正处在AI投资超级周期，但AI红利目前集中在少数从业者与经济体，人们愈发担忧这项技术会扩大贫富差距。
“我们如今无法准确想象五年后的职场会是什么模样，”她表示，“但我们可以理性审慎评估现状、总结经验，最重要的是立刻付诸行动。”
尽管就业市场面临逆风，AI长期仍有望利好整体经济增长。IMF测算，AI普及可为亚洲发达经济体提升至多1个百分点的增速。
格奥尔基耶娃称，这样的增长提振“意义重大”，足以“完全抵消”该区域发达国家人口老龄化带来的增长拖累。
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The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund warned of the disruptive risks of artificial intelligence to labour markets and taxation and called on policymakers to rethink the education system and take immediate action to help societies adapt to change. On Monday, at the first appearance at the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok, Georgieva stated: “It was a slow tsunami, but it was still a tsunami.”
In a sub-forum on the impact of artificial intelligence on employment, the IMF President, Georgieva, stated that AI had taken over a great deal of conventional and repetitive work, weakening the demand for manpower. At the same time, AI has generated more low-paid jobs in industries such as construction, which she claims is “not a cause for celebration”.
Georgieva stated that the transformation would have far-reaching implications for public finances. The risk is that the focus of the economy will shift from labour to capital, which has traditionally been the main source of tax revenues, and AI may cause government revenue to be strained.
This is the latest IMF alert to AI ' s potential impact on employment and the global economy. Young job-seekers in AI-affected industries have experienced a slowdown in recruitment, and new entrants to junior positions face increased pressure. While the world is in the middle of an AI investment supercycle, the AI dividend is now concentrated in a small number of practitioners and economies, and there is growing concern that this technology will widen the gap between rich and poor.
“We cannot now imagine exactly what the job world will look like in five years,” she said, “but we can make a rational and careful assessment of the current situation, draw lessons and, above all, put it into action immediately”.
Despite the counterwinding of the job market, AI is expected to benefit overall economic growth over the long term. IMF has estimated that universal access could increase the rate of growth by up to 1 percentage point in Asian advanced economies.
According to Georgieva, such growth boosts are “significant” enough to “totally offset” the growth drag of population ageing in the developed countries of the region.
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