文 | 陆玖商业评论
复购收入含金量上升，曾经仅凭样机、概念故事就能拿到高估值的时代已经过去。把内卷当作主要战场，很难跑出真正的商业闭环，头部企业需要寻找新的破局路径，这步棋，甚至可以比新能源汽车走的更早。
智元也是很拼了，不拼又不行。
10月21日，智元宣布10月22日起连续七个工作日发布七项成果，覆盖数据集、作业平台、重载机器人G2Max、具身Agent框架GenieMaster、仿真平台、基座大模型与群体经验学习范式。
这有一个大背景，资本市场对具身智能的态度，在今年初和今年末，转了一个180°的大弯。前期整个具身智能赛道都挤破头冲向资本市场，时下大多的IPO则成了扑朔迷离的事件。
具体到智元身上，作为全球头部玩家，据报道，智元创新近期启动新一轮融资，市场传出估值约500亿元，但IPO已暂缓。
一个细节是，二级市场内人形机器人玩家的表现有些拉胯，使得资本开始从狂热变得耐心。大门已经不再对概念故事大开绿灯。此前。宇树登陆科创板后市值近乎腰斩、梅卡曼德港股上市超高认购却首日破发，接连上演的市场案例摆在眼前。
不过，暂缓IPO不等于放弃资本化。这更像是一次审时度势的选择：在行业估值泡沫出清的节点，与其仓促登台接受市场放大镜审视，不如退回赛道内部打磨业务基本面。原因是，具身智能的资本逻辑已经发生本质切换，市场评判标尺从样机、概念、故事，转向订单质量、客户复购、商业化真实成色。
多卖一台真机器，比多一分的股票价格，好像更值钱。
宇树在资本市场扑街，智元也变聪明了？
陆玖商业评论注意到，多位业内人士向外界透露，此前市场已多次传出智元赴港上市节奏放缓的消息，若《财经》报道的新一轮融资属实，智元在今年内无法完成IPO。
这不只是智元的问题，它是整个产业发展周期的一个缩影。过去，“狂飙”是近两年具身智能赛道一个典型的代表词，人形机器人行业亦弥漫着一种普遍共识：只要贴上人形机器人标签，就能复制芯片、半导体行业批量上市的资本盛宴。
仅仅只是因为上了春晚，具身智能火得有些突然，一级市场愿意为远期产业想象支付高额溢价，样机发布会、炫酷的演示视频，就足以撑起企业的估值叙事，这是早期的泡沫。
人形机器人产业发展至今确有在降温，有的被两场二级市场行情狠狠打破。
A股人形机器人第一股宇树科技8月登陆科创板，盘中市值一度突破4400亿元，短短数个交易日市值近乎腰斩，超2000亿市值蒸发。港股市场，机器人零部件厂商梅卡曼德公开发售获得约3835倍超额认购，刷新港股机器人赛道认购纪录，上市首日直接破发，后续股价持续走弱。
接连发生的行情变化，在传递一个清晰信号：资本已经从狂热资本转向耐心资本。二级市场投资者恐怕不想单纯为人形机器人概念买单，企业手里真实订单、市场化复购能力，权重被放到前所未有的高度。
对于包括智元在内的企业，按照港交所特专科技18C章的规则，企业递交上市申请之后，如果挂牌前真的完成新一轮融资，在未拿到交易所豁免的前提下，融资交割完成后必须等待120天才可以推进挂牌流程。
新融资客观拉长了其他未IPO的企业的上市时间表。但抛开规则层面的客观限制，行业环境的改变，是不可忽视的底层诱因。
毕竟，监管审核门槛已经明显抬升。港交所对外释放信号，计划在明年上半年针对18C特专科技上市制度开展咨询，其中就包含市值门槛的检讨，这会直接影响排队当中数十家具身智能企业的命运。同样，A股科创板6月修订发行上市规定，将机器人、具身智能列为重点支持方向的同时，明确从严把控上市准入，严守财务真实性底线，规避带病申报的现象。
Wind统计数据显示，港交所有超过50家具身智能赛道企业正在排队候场。但陆玖商业通过梳理后发现，产业链上的市场已经形成现实分化：上游零部件厂商上市通路相对顺畅，珞石机器人、仙工智能、梅卡曼德、本末科技已经先后完成港股挂牌；人形整机本体企业闯关阻力明显更大，短期内恐怕很难见到整机企业敲钟的案例。
因为高开低走的局面已是前车之鉴。
理论上，招股书是一份完全公开的考卷，所有收入结构、订单来源、客户构成，全部摊开在投资者、行业同行的视野之下。但赛道内已经出现公开争议，市场开始区分一笔收入来自市场化商业客户，还是哪里？
在这种背景下，想上市的企业的招股书如果被爆出真实收入含金量不够高，又将受到外界非议。显然，很少有企业愿意在准备不够充分的时候，直面来自资本市场、投资者以及社会大众对收入真实性的公开拷问。暂缓IPO，留出窗口期打磨业务指标，成为后面一些玩家的现实选择。
看来，即使是大厂也不得不为需求奔波，渐渐地，有理想相信在今后，比起抢时间敲钟，业务指标能不能经得起审计、能不能经得住二级市场的审视，变得更加重要。
既然资本市场的窗口已经发生改变，但外部只是压力来源，真正影响一家企业能走多远的，依旧在自身业务底盘之中。
智元的对手，在友商还是在自身含金量
从人形机器人行业竞争格局来看，智元与宇树构成赛道双寡头。
SAG机构2026上半年统计数据，智元8400台、宇树5900台的出货量，两家合计拿下全球超七成市场份额，其余中小厂商单家上半年出货量均未能突破千台，头部和腰部企业的规模鸿沟已经拉开。
宇树此前实现过盈利。表面看，智元最大对手是同赛道的一众头部友商。
但穿透行业表象，全赛道共同面临的发展堵点，同时也是压在智元身上的核心考题。真正的考验，来自企业自身业务含金量。
整个行业都正在被审视收入的真实成色。人形机器人场景应用联盟统计，2026上半年国内公开人形机器人中标项目共218个，总规模17.23亿元。其中教育科研机构采购占比55.5%，政府及国资平台占20.6%，真正来自工业企业订单仅有21.1%。而工业企业订单内部，大部分还停留在样机测试、展厅展示、实训试点，并非工厂产线常态化商用采购。
假设大量订单带有科研项目属性，预算跟随项目周期波动，很难形成持续性复购。一旦项目结束，对应营收就存在波动风险，这也是当下监管问询、二级市场投资人重点关注的风险点。这不是某一家企业的特例，而是绝大多数人形整机厂商共同面对的行业现实。
相比之下，智元有利好的一面，例如，预计11月2日至3日，6台G2机器人将进入真实便利店24小时直播作业，完成全栈技术的真实场景验证。
另外在2026年智元合作伙伴大会上，智元创始人兼CEO（首席执行官）邓泰华披露了智元成立以来的营收状况：“从成立第一年的30万元，到第二年的6000多万元，再到去年（2025年）突破了10亿元的营收。每年实现20倍的增长。今年的目标会再进一步实现数倍的增长。2027年要跨越100亿元的营收。”
只不过，这些不等于产品已经走向完全成熟。统计口径之下的出货，包含轮式、半尺寸机型，全尺寸人形机器人规模化部署还有提升空间。
国内大量整机企业，减速器、伺服电机、控制器等核心元器件对外采购占比偏高，供应链高度趋同，样机层面很容易做出能行走、能表演动作的机器人，但产品差异化更多停留在外观与演示动作，真实非结构化工业场景的作业能力，还需要海量工况数据打磨迭代。所以，即使是智元，设备可以日渐批量部署，但从演示效果到更稳定干活，中间隔着不小距离。
公司CEO邓泰华曾表示“不急于追求净利润”，他还强调，智元现在的策略是要保持研发领域饱和投入，来构建产品竞争力。
重研发赛道之下，企业的现金流压力客观存在。硬件迭代、算法训练、团队人力、市场拓展，每一块都持续消耗资金。智元尚未实现盈利，对外部融资具备一定依赖。
回过头来看，同行之间的出货比拼、市场份额争夺，只是表层的竞争。订单结构优化程度、产品实际落地能力、收敛亏损的路径，这些业务底盘层面的命题，才是智元需要跨越的内部关卡。
相较于国内头部玩家愈演愈烈的厮杀，陆玖商业评论观察到了另外一种趋势，把内卷当作主要战场，很难跑出真正的商业闭环，头部企业需要寻找新的破局路径，这步棋，甚至可以比新能源汽车走的更早。
对内卷同行，不如提前对外出海
加快向外冲这个推测并非没有道理。
回顾新能源汽车产业发展路径，国内厂商大多经历先深耕本土市场，积累技术与规模，再向外出海的发展顺序。落到具身智能赛道，行业却出现了不一样的可能性：国产人形机器人拥有供应链、成本制造优势，出海可以更早成为重要增长引擎。
就大盘数据而言，数据显示，今年一季度，中国人形机器人出口同比增长210%，彭博社10月14日刊文称，中国有望引领价值5万亿美元的人形机器人市场。
具体到智元身上，智元机器人合伙人、联席总裁姜青松介绍，公司计划2026年海外销售占比达到30%以上，未来有望超过50%。
上述数据意味着，向内打磨业务基本面，向外抢夺海外增量市场，可以成为头部整机企业更现实的出路，出海有机会成为这套解法当中至关重要的第二曲线。
中国人形机器人出海有充足的优势，摩根士丹利研报给出判断，人形机器人产业发展阶段等同于2018至2020年新能源汽车，未来五年将迎来全球出货量百倍增长，中国厂商牢牢占据产业链主导地位。新能源车依靠能源替代逻辑打开海外市场，人形机器人依靠劳动力替代刚需撬动全球需求，市场空间、扩张速度、产业链话语权全面占优，出海浪潮爆发力更强。
劣势在于，外界市场是否会规模性地接受产品的准入，这考验着包括智元在内的产品合规能力，同时，来自竞争市场的第一堵高墙亦不易忽视。
据可靠消息，随着特斯拉透露其第三代人形机器人Optimus（擎天柱）已做好大规模量产准备，市场目光再度聚焦这一企业，如同前段时间特斯拉飞上天一样，国产人形机器人品牌不能忽视来自特斯拉在全球市场的竞争压力。马斯克甚至直言，Optimus人形机器人和Cybercab将构成特斯拉绝大部分价值。
第二堵墙是，产业化之路并非坦途，硬件可靠性、物理AI算法泛化能力、成本控制、行业合规标准及数据闭环建设，仍是智元等人形机器人产业发展的核心约束。
回过头来看，放眼港股排队队伍，技术演示和一门可持续的生意，中间隔着很长的产业化路程。与其继续在国内存量赛道内卷厮杀，不如把资源投向产品打磨、投向全球市场，去争取来自海外市场的真实商业客户，只是这条路机会颇大荆棘也不会少。
智元被爆暂缓IPO这件事，算不上行业拐点，一级市场依旧愿意为人形机器人的长期产业空间下注，500亿估值背后，是资本对赛道远期前景依旧抱有期待，可资本也开始学会了筛选。
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* The present document was not edited before being sent to the United Nations translation services.
The era when the value of repurchase income had risen, when the prototypes and concept stories had been able to obtain high valuations, had passed. It is difficult to get out of the real business circle by using the inner roll as the main battlefield, and the head enterprise needs to look for a new path, which can go even earlier than the new energy car.
Ji-won is too hard to fight.
On 21 October, Jiwon announced seven consecutive working days of publish, starting on 22 October, covering data sets, operating platforms, reloading robot G2Max, Genee Master with the Agent Framework, Simulation Platform, base LLM and group experience learning paradigms.
This is a broad context, and the attitude of capital markets towards being smart turned a 180-degree turn at the beginning and end of the year. While the entire smart track was squeezing towards the capital market in the early stages, most of the next IPO became a mirage.
In particular, as a global front player, Jiwon has reportedly recently launched a new round of finance, with a market estimate of about $50 billion, but IPO has been suspended.
One detail is that the performance of human robots in the secondary market is a bit lull, making capital more patient from fanaticism. The doors no longer provide a green light for conceptual stories. Before. The market value after the launch of the Ukraniya Landing Centre is close to a cut, the high-market subscription to the port of Mercamand has been blown up on the first day, and the next market case is ahead.
However, the suspension of IPOs does not amount to a waiver of capitalization. This is more like a one-time review: at the nodal point of the industry valuation bubble, rather than rushing to the market magnifier, it is better to return to the basics of the business in the track. The reason for this is that intelligent capital logic has undergone a fundamental shift, with market-judgement rulers shifting from prototypes, concepts, stories to quality orders, customer buy-backs and real commercialization.
It's more valuable to sell a real machine than a penny of stock prices.
You think he's smart when he's in the capital market?
According to the Luxuan Business Review, a number of people in the industry have revealed to the outside world that, on several occasions, the market has heard news of the slow pace of his travel to Hong Kong, and that if the new round of financing as reported in the Book of the Books is true, he will not be able to complete the IPO this year.
This is not just a matter of intellectuals; it is a microcosm of the entire industrial development cycle. In the past, “robust” was a typical representation of a smart track for almost two years, and there was a general consensus in the human robot industry that if human robots were labeled, a mass capital feast in the chip, semiconductor industry could be replicated.
Just because it's spring and late, it's a bit sudden that the first-class market is willing to pay a high premium for the distant industry, the prototype publish, the cool demonstration video, is enough to sustain the corporate valuation narrative, an early bubble.
The development of the human robot industry has so far been tempered, in some cases by two secondary market developments.
The first piece of human robot A arrived in August with a market value of over $440 billion, with a short number of trading days close to a cut-off, evaporating over $200 billion. The port stock market, where the robotic parts manufacturer, Mercamand, received approximately 3,835 times of over-subscribement, updated the Hong Kong stock robot track, collapsed directly on the first day of the market and continued to suffer from weak subsequent stock prices.
Successive dynamics are sending a clear signal that capital has shifted from fanatical capital to patient capital. Second-tier market investors may not want to pay for the concept of human robots alone, and businesses have real orders, market-based buy-back capabilities, with a weight being placed at an unprecedented level.
In the case of enterprises, including the Specialized Technology of Hong Kong, under the rules of Chapter 18C, once they have submitted an application for listing, and if they have actually completed a new round of financing before they are listed, they must wait 120 days before the transaction is completed without an exchange exemption.
The new financing objectively lengthened the listing schedule of other unIPO enterprises. However, leaving aside objective limitations at the level of rules, changes in the industry environment are the underlying trigger that cannot be ignored.
After all, the regulatory review threshold has been significantly raised. The Hong Kong Exchange has released a signal that it plans to consult in the first half of next year on the 18C Specialized Technology Listing System, which will include a review of the market value threshold, which will have a direct impact on the fate of dozens of furniture-smart enterprises in the queue. Similarly, in June, the launch board of Unit A revised the listing requirements to prioritize robotics and intelligence in its support, with a clear focus on strict access to the market, strict financial authenticity thresholds and avoidance of disease-related declarations.
Wind statistics indicate that all Hong Kong enterprises with more than 50 furniture-based smart tracks are waiting in line. However, as a result of a combo process, the market in the industrial chain has become more fragmented: the upstream parts manufacturer has relatively smooth access to the market, the quartz robots, the Fairy Man intelligence, Mercamand, and Benmong technology have completed the registration of Hong Kong shares; and there is a clear increase in the resistance of the man-made robotics enterprise to breaking through customs, which may be difficult to see in the short term.
It's a long way to go.
Theoretically, the equity book is a fully open examination, with all income structures, the source of the order, the composition of the customer, all spread out in the eyes of investors and industry counterparts. But there has been an open dispute in the course of the race, and the market has begun to distinguish between a single income from a marketed commercial customer, or where?
Against this background, companies wishing to be listed would be criticized if they were blown out of real income to a level that was not sufficiently high. It is clear that very few enterprises are willing to confront public torture of income authenticity from capital markets, investors and the general public when they are not adequately prepared. The suspension of IPO and the setting aside of windows to sharpen business indicators became a realistic choice for some of the later players.
It appears that even large plants have to travel to demand, and it is becoming increasingly desirable to believe that, in the future, operational indicators will be more important than clock-belling, whether they can withstand auditing and secondary market scrutiny.
Now that the window in the capital market has changed, the outside is only a source of pressure that really affects how far an enterprise can go and remains in its business chassis.
Ji-won's rival is still in the business of his friend or his own.
According to the pattern of competition in the human robotics industry, Ji-won and Woo-hu form the two oligarchs of the track.
According to SAG statistics for the first half of 2026, the volume of exports of 8,400 pieces of IQD and 5900 pieces of Waki, both of them have taken over 70 per cent of the global market share, while the remaining small and medium-sized producers have not been able to make a breakthrough in the first half of the year and the gap between the size of the head and the waist has widened.
Woo-hee has been profitable before. On the surface, Ji-won's biggest opponent is a group of friends on the same track.
But penetrating industry appearances, the development blocks common to the entire track are at the core of the examination on the brain. The real test comes from the gold in the business itself.
The whole industry is being examined for the real color of income. According to the Union for the Application of Human Robotic Sites, in the first half of 2026 there were 218 winning projects for open human robots in the country, totalling 1,723 million yuan. Of these, 55.5 per cent were procured by educational and scientific institutions, 20.6 per cent by the Government and the State, and only 21.1 per cent were actually ordered from industrial enterprises. In addition, most of the industrial business orders are still in prototype testing, exhibition hall displays, hands-on piloting and are not commercial purchases of plant lines.
Assuming that a large number of orders carry scientific project attributes, the budget fluctuates with the project cycle, making it difficult to generate ongoing repurchases. Once the project is completed, there is a risk of volatility in counterpart receipts, which is also the point of risk that is the focus of ongoing regulatory inquiries and secondary market investors. This is not a special case for a particular enterprise, but rather an industry reality that is shared by the vast majority of human processors.
On the positive side, for example, from 2 to 3 November, six G2 robots are expected to enter the real convenience store live 24-hour operation to complete the real scene validation of the whole house technology.
In addition, at the 2026 Meeting of the Partners, the founder and CEO of Jiwon, Deng Taehua, revealed the status of his collections since his establishment: “From $300,000 in the first year of his existence to more than $60 million in the second year of his existence, last year (2025), he surpassed the $1 billion harvest. Twenty times the annual increase. This year's target will be further multiplied. In 2027, it's going to cross $10 billion."
It's just that these do not mean that the product is fully mature. Delivery under a statistical caliber consists of wheeled, half-sized machines, full-size robotic deployment and room for upgrading.
The country ' s large number of integrator enterprises, with high rates of external procurement of core meta-entrepreneurs, servers, controllers, etc., and a high degree of convergence in the supply chain, make walking and performing robots easily at the prototype level, but product differentiation is more confined to appearance and demonstration, the operational capacity of real, non-structured industrial scenes, and there is also a need for mass situational data to adjust. Thus, even in the case of intellectuals, equipment can be deployed in increasing quantities, but from demonstration to more stable work, there is a distance.
The company CEO Deng Taehua had stated that he was “not eager to pursue net profits”, and he also stressed that his strategy was to maintain saturated investment in R & D to build product competitiveness.
Under the redevelopment track, there is an objective cash flow pressure on enterprises. Hardware iterative, algorithmic training, team labour, market expansion, each of which consumes funds on a continuous basis. Ji-won has not yet made a profit and is dependent on external financing.
In retrospect, the competition for the export of goods and market shares between peers is only surface competition. Order structure optimization, physical landing capacity of products, loss recovery paths, and the proposition at the level of the business chassis, is the internal level that intellectuals need to cross.
Compared to the increasing homicides of front-line players in the country, the Rudd Business Review has observed another trend in which it is difficult to get out of the real business closed loops, and head-run firms need to look for new paths, which can go even earlier than new energy cars.
Why don't we go out ahead of each other? Hey.
It is not unreasonable to assume that there will be an accelerated outburst.
Looking back at the path to the development of the new energy automobile industry, most domestic producers have experienced the development sequence of deep-drive local markets, accumulation of technology and scale, and going out to sea. In the middle of a smart race, there are different possibilities for the industry: a national human robot has a supply chain, has a cost advantage and can be an important engine of growth earlier to go to sea.
As far as big data are concerned, the data show that during the first quarter of this year, Chinese human robot exports increased by 210 per cent over the same period. According to Bloomberg, China is expected to lead a $5 trillion human robot market.
With regard to Ji-won in particular, a joint director, Kang Qinghong, a intellectual robot partner, the company plans to reach more than 30 per cent of overseas sales by 2026 and is expected to exceed 50 per cent in the future.
The above data mean that grinding the basics of the business internally, taking out the overseas incremental market, can be a more realistic way out for head-to-head complexes and have the opportunity to become a critical second curve in this solution.
The Chinese robotics have a strong advantage in going out to sea, and Morgan Stanley has made a judgment that the human robotics industry is developing at a level equivalent to a new energy car from 2018 to 2020, and will see a 100-fold increase in global exports over the next five years, with Chinese manufacturers taking the lead in the industrial chain. New energy vehicles rely on energy-replacement logic to open overseas markets, human robots rely on labour to replace new demands, market space, speed of expansion, industrial chains of speech take full advantage, and the wave surge is stronger.
The disadvantage lies in whether outside markets will accept access to products on a scale that will test the ability to comply with products, including intellectuals, while the first wall from competitive markets is not easily ignored.
According to reliable sources, with Tesla revealing that his third-generation human-form robot Optimus is ready for large-scale production, the eyes of the market again focus on this enterprise, just as Tesla flew over the previous period, the domestic-form robot brand cannot ignore the competitive pressures from Tesla on the global market. Mask would even say that Optimus human robots and Cybercab would make up the bulk of Tesla's value.
The second wall is that the path to industrialization is not an easy one and that hardware reliability, physical AI capability, cost control, industry compliance standards and data closure construction remain central constraints to the development of the robotics industry, such as intellectuals.
Looking back, there is a long industrial trail between eye-port queues, technical demonstrations and a sustainable business. Rather than continuing to fight on the inside of domestic stocks, it would be better to spend resources on grinding products and on the global market for real commercial customers from overseas markets, although the opportunities for this route are not too small.
The suspension of IPO by the explosion of Ji-won is not a turning point for the industry, and the first-tier market remains willing to bet on long-term industrial space for human robots, behind a 50 billion-dollar valuation, because capital continues to look forward to the long-term prospects of the track, but capital is beginning to learn to filter.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.