10月27日，Anthropic已正式递交了IPO招股书，距离上市越来越近。《纽约时报》发文称，Anthropic最早可能在下个月上市。届时，这次IPO将不仅仅是这家人工智能公司正式亮相资本市场的重要时刻，也将成为对整体美国经济的一次考验，攸关数万亿美元资金。
Anthropic明星产品Claude
Anthropic开发了Claude聊天机器人，是人工智能行业的支柱企业之一。该公司在私募市场的估值已接近1万亿美元，累计融资超过1300亿美元。此次IPO可能筹集1000亿美元，使其迅速跻身全球市值最高的上市公司之列。但其中的利害关系甚至还不止于此。
牵一发动全身
Anthropic及其主要竞争对手OpenAI处于一个由商业合作伙伴和供应商构成的庞大金字塔顶端。这些企业包括基础设施供应商、芯片制造商、能源公司和人工智能创业公司。过去四年，它们都投入了巨额资金，因为它们相信，市场对人工智能产品的需求将持续增长。
Anthropic上市将首次让外界深入了解支撑人工智能热潮的一家关键企业的经营状况，同时也将检验这股热潮的可持续性。市场对人工智能服务的需求是否真的永无止境，足以支撑企业在芯片、数据中心和其他基础设施上的巨额投入？还是说，Anthropic的业绩将表明，这种需求终究存在上限？
“对市场来说，它是一个风向标。”风投公司Seligman Ventures的投资人乌梅什·帕德瓦尔(Umesh Padval)表示，他在科技行业工作了近40年。
如果Anthropic上市首秀表现令人失望，这可能会打击投资者信心，并引发更广泛的市场抛售，让人们对人工智能热潮还能持续多久产生怀疑。反之，如果IPO取得成功，则可能提振市场，并为更多人工智能公司上市铺平道路。
股市已经处于紧张不安的状态。本月，科技股普遍下跌，其中设计和制造AI芯片的企业领跌。费城半导体指数已较6月高点下跌26%，进入熊市，表明投资者的焦虑情绪已相当严重。
过去几周，微软取消了与数据中心供应商Nscale的一项合作协议。研究机构Gartner发布的一份报告预测，80%的“新型云服务商”(为人工智能企业提供数据和算力的公司)，可能被迫退出市场。此外，对冲基金Citadel的亿万富豪创始人肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)表示，人工智能投资者“几乎肯定”处于泡沫之中。
Meta数据中心
这些负面信号进一步加剧了市场对人工智能基础设施巨额支出的担忧。亚马逊、Meta、Google和微软均表示，计划今年在包括数据中心在内的人工智能基础设施上投入至少7400亿美元。根据投资数据追踪机构PitchBook的统计，自2022年以来，私募市场投资者已向Anthropic、OpenAI及其他人工智能公司投入1.1万亿美元。
随着私募市场的支出和投资不断增加，公开市场的投资规模也在扩大，使得股市表现越来越依赖人工智能行业的业绩。标普500指数中市值排名前10的公司合计市值超过1万亿美元，其中8家是科技公司。这10家公司合计占该指数权重的40%以上，而十年前这一比例还不到20%。
日后，在Anthropic被纳入该指数后，它很可能将伯克希尔·哈撒韦或礼来挤出前10名。这两家公司是目前仅有的两家市值超过1万亿美元的非科技企业。
“这次上市事关重大。如果进展不顺，整个市场都将受到拖累。”供应链服务公司Circular Technology的全球研究及市场情报主管布拉德·加斯特沃思(Brad Gastwirth)表示。
增长放缓
Anthropic在周一提交了IPO招股书，披露了其营收快速增长的详细情况，以及未来十年计划在数据中心、芯片和云计算方面投入高达8070亿美元的计划。
这份文件并未包含Anthropic第三季度的业绩数据。该公司本月已在旧金山总部向投资者披露了这些数据。Anthropic第三季度营收达到168亿美元，环比增长45%。但投资者注意到，该公司第二季度营收较第一季度增长了141%，增速远高于第三季度。
Anthropic如何解释这一增长放缓，将至关重要。如果原因是该公司在市场份额上输给了OpenAI，或采用成本更低的开源人工智能模型的企业，那么这意味着人工智能服务的整体需求依然稳健。但如果Anthropic增长放缓是因为整个市场对人工智能产品的需求减弱，那么市场反应可能会更加剧烈。
Anthropic旧金山总部
过去一年，Anthropic一直是硅谷最炙手可热的公司，这在一定程度上得益于Claude Code。这项服务改变了软件工程师编写代码的方式。随着公司营收飙升，私募市场投资者不断推高其估值，使其达到9650亿美元，超过了OpenAI。
IPO市场遇冷
为满足市场对其AI产品的需求，Anthropic达成了价值数千亿美元的协议，从Google、亚马逊和微软租用算力。它还在英伟达的芯片以及Nscale等公司的数据中心上投入资金。为Anthropic提供服务的企业，反过来也在向各自的供应商投入巨额资金。
但今年夏天，一些Anthropic客户得出结论：他们在“token”(AI系统处理和生成的数据单位)上花得太多。他们开始寻找更便宜的选择。Meta是Anthropic最大客户之一，今年曾预计每年在该公司的技术上花费高达100亿美元，但随着转向其他AI模型，Meta削减了支出。
今年上市的一些人工智能公司的股价已经大幅下跌。硅谷人工智能芯片制造商Cerebras的股价较5月份的发行价下跌了约40%。人工智能基础设施公司Accelevation的股价目前较9月份18美元的发行价低约三分之一。马斯克旗下SpaceX在6月上市后，股价也已从峰值大幅回落，不过目前仍比发行价高出约9%。
在这样的背景下，IPO市场的步伐已经放缓。为人工智能行业提供核能的Holtec上个月撤回了上市申请。OpenAI最大支持者之一软银控股的数据中心公司SB Energy，以及与数据中心合作的电力公司Aggreko，也推迟了上市计划。
追踪上市动态的Renaissance Capital高级策略师马修·肯尼迪(Matthew Kennedy)表示，人工智能基础设施是今年IPO市场的“头号主题”，“但它也是过去几周抛售潮中受冲击最严重的板块之一”。
投资银行家已警告企业，它们可能无法获得两个月前还在考虑的估值。高盛CEO大卫·所罗门(David Solomon)本月在一次财报电话会议上表示，尽管公开募股市场“完全开放”，但如果企业仍希望获得接近今年夏季讨论的估值，可能会选择暂缓上市。“9月份的行情有所走软。”他说。
Anthropic的营收数据进一步加剧了市场疑虑。此前，市场预计该公司上市时的估值最高可达2万亿美元。但据一位知情人士透露，在看到营收增速放缓以及市场持续低迷后，一些投资者已开始讨论1.5万亿美元至1.7万亿美元的估值区间。
人工智能行业高管一直在努力安抚市场情绪。本月，为人工智能行业供应芯片的台积电CEO魏哲家表示，公司的利润增长“没有上限”。
上周晚些时候，随着市场对人工智能支出的担忧日益加剧，股市进一步下跌。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数创下6月以来最大单日跌幅。
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On 27 October, Anthropic officially submitted his IPO book of admission, which is becoming closer to the market. According to the New York Times, Anthropic could be listed the following month at the earliest. By that time, IPO will not only be an important moment for this family-worker intelligence company to officially showcase the capital market, but will also be a test for the United States economy as a whole, with trillions of dollars at stake.
Anthropic star product Claude
Anthropic has developed Claude chat robots, one of the backbones of the artificial intelligence industry. The company ' s valuation in the private market is close to $1 trillion, with cumulative financing exceeding $130 billion. This time, the IPO could raise $100 billion, making it rapidly among the most marketed companies in the world. But the stakes are even greater.
Take one hand and start the whole body.
Anthropic and his main rival, Open AI, are at the top of a huge pyramid of business partners and suppliers. These include infrastructure providers, chip manufacturers, energy companies and artificial intelligence start-ups. Over the past four years, they have invested huge amounts of money because they believe that the demand for artificial intelligence products in the market will continue to grow.
The listing of Anthropic will, for the first time, provide the outside world with an in-depth understanding of the operations of a key enterprise that supports the wave of artificial intelligence and will also test its sustainability. Is the market demand for artificial intelligence services really endless enough to support the huge investment of enterprises in chips, data centres and other infrastructure? Or will the performance of Anthropic show that there is ultimately a ceiling on this demand?
“For the market, it is a windmark.” Umesh Padval, an investor of the windward company Seligman Ventures, stated that he had worked in the science and technology industry for nearly 40 years.
If Anthropic’s premiere performance is disappointing, it could undermine investor confidence and trigger wider market sales, raising doubts as to how long the artificial intelligence boom will last. Conversely, if IPO succeeds, it may boost markets and pave the way for more artificial intelligence companies to be listed.
The stock market is already tense. The Science and Technology Unit has generally fallen this month, with companies designing and producing AI chips leading the way. The fact that the Philadelphia semiconductor index has fallen by 26 per cent above its June height and has entered Bear City indicates that investors have become rather anxious.
Over the past few weeks, Microsoft has cancelled a cooperation agreement with the data centre supplier, Nscale. A report by the research institute Gartner publish predicts that 80 per cent of the “new cloud service providers” (companys that provide data and calculators for artificial intelligence enterprises) may be forced out of the market. In addition, Ken Griffin, founder of the billionaire of hedge fund Citadel, said that artificial smart investors were “almost certain” in bubbles.
Meta Data Centre
These negative signals further exacerbate the market ' s concern about the huge expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Amazon, Meta, Google and Microsoft have indicated that they plan to invest at least $740 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure this year, including data centres. According to the Investment Data Tracking Agency, PitchBook, since 2022 private market investors have invested $1.1 trillion in Anthropic, Open AI and other artificial intelligence companies.
As private-market expenditures and investments continue to increase, so does investment in open markets, making stock market performance increasingly dependent on the performance of artificial intelligence industries. The total market value of the top 10 companies in the Standard 500 index exceeds $1 trillion, of which eight are technology companies. These 10 companies together account for more than 40 per cent of the index weight, compared to less than 20 per cent 10 years ago.
Later, when Anthropic was included in the index, it was likely to squeeze Birkhel Khasavi or Leong out of the top 10. These two companies are currently the only two non-technology enterprises with a market value of over $1 trillion.
“This listing is of great importance. If progress is not good, the entire market will suffer.” The Chief of Global Research and Market Intelligence, Supply Chain Service, Brad Gastwirth, stated that the company was not the only source of information.
Slowing growth
Anthropic submitted an IPO book on Monday, disclosing details of its fast-growing collection and plans to invest up to $80.7 billion in data centres, chips and cloud computing over the next decade.
This document does not include performance data for the third quarter of Anthropic. The company disclosed these data to investors at its headquarters in San Francisco this month. Anthropic collected $16.8 billion in the third quarter, an increase of 45 per cent in the ring. Investors noted, however, that the company ' s second quarter revenue increased by 141 per cent compared to the first quarter, a much faster increase than the third quarter.
How Anthropic explains this slowdown will be crucial. If the reason is that the company loses its market share to Open AI or uses lower-cost open-source artificial intelligence models, then the overall demand for artificial intelligence services remains robust. But if the slowdown in growth in Anthropic is due to a weakening of demand for artificial intelligence products in the market as a whole, the market response may be even more dramatic.
Anthony San Francisco.
In the past year, Anthropic has been the hottest company in Silicon Valley, thanks in part to Claude Code. This service has changed the way software engineers write codes. As companies surged, private market investors continued to raise their valuation to $965 billion, exceeding Open AI.
IPO markets are cold.
To meet the market ' s demand for its AI products, Anthropic entered into agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars to rent credit from Google, Amazon and Microsoft. It also invests in the data centres of companies such as British Wida and Nscale. Enterprises providing services to Anthropic, in turn, are investing huge amounts of money in their respective suppliers.
But this summer, some Anthropic clients concluded that they spent too much on “tokeen” (data units processed and generated by the AI system). They started looking for cheaper options. Meta, one of the largest clients of Anthropic, was expected to spend as much as $10 billion annually on technology in the company this year, but as it moved to other AI models, Meta reduced its expenditures.
The stock prices of some of the artificial intelligence companies listed this year have fallen sharply. Cerebras, a Silicon Valley artificial intelligence chip manufacturer, lost about 40 per cent of its share price compared to its distribution in May. The share price of Accelevation, an artificial intelligent infrastructure company, is currently about one third lower than the issue price of $18 in September. Following the listing of SpaceX under the Mask flag in June, stock prices have also fallen significantly from peaks, although they are still about 9 per cent higher than issuance prices.
Against this background, the pace of the IPO market has slowed. Holtec, which provides nuclear power to artificial intelligence industries, withdrew its listing last month. The data centre company SB Energy, one of the largest supporters of Open AI ' s soft and silver holdings, and Aggreko, a power company working with the data centre, also delayed the listing.
According to Matthew Kennedy, a senior strategic strategist who tracks the developments on the market, artificial intelligence infrastructure is the “first theme” of this year's IPO market, and “it is also one of the most affected plates of the past few weeks in the wave of sales”.
Investment bankers have warned businesses that they may not be able to obtain the valuations that were still under consideration two months ago. David Solomon said this month at a teleconference that, although the open market was “fully open”, businesses may choose to stay on the market if they still wish to obtain valuations close to those discussed this summer. “September went soft.” He said.
The collection of data by Anthropic further exacerbates market uncertainty. Previously, the market had projected that the company could be valued at up to $2 trillion when it was listed. However, according to an informed source, some investors have begun to discuss valuation ranges ranging from $1.5 trillion to $1.7 trillion, following a slowdown in the rate of growth and continued market downturn.
The executives of the AI industry have been trying to calm market sentiment. This month, CEOs who supply chips to the artificial intelligence industry stated that there is “no ceiling” on corporate profit growth.
In late last week, stock markets fell further as market concerns about AI spending increased. The NASDAQ composite index, dominated by the Science and Technology Unit, registered its largest single-day decline since June.
Auto-fetched and translated by AI Atlas. All rights belong to the original author.