引言：2026年以来中国进出口的强劲增长，是世界AI及相关技术产品投资勃兴带动全球贸易急剧加速的一部分，不是“产能过剩”叙事方式所能解释。因为增长最猛烈的AI相关IT产品进口比出口增长更快。
AI投资及相关产品贸易的猛增，带来全球贸易新的不平衡。美国虽为全球AI领先，但相关产品制造外包程度高，反而进口增长更快；欧盟AI发展明显落后，因此出口缺乏增长点；亚太是全球AI相关产品供应高地，在本轮世界贸易勃兴中最为突出。与此相应，中国对美欧有巨大顺差，但与RCEP成员贸易基本平衡。
2025年中国货物贸易顺差超万亿美元，美欧对我指责、攻击一浪高过一浪。不久前在佛罗里达举行的G20财长与央行行长会议发表的主席声明，指责中国巨额贸易顺差带来世界经济失衡。2026年前9个月我国贸易增长进一步加快，出口和进口同比分别增长21.3%和27.5%。9月份当月再加快到出口同比增长36.3%，进口增长31.0%；当月贸易顺差达到1335.3亿美元，折合年率1.6万亿美元的空前高峰。这进一步引起美欧恐慌。欧盟声称对话贸易逆差达到每天10亿欧元，已经出台一系列贸易限制，并计划实施更严厉限制。他们指责的共同点，是中国巨额贸易顺差来自产业补贴造成产能过剩。
AI投资与产业化推动中国贸易激增
2026年前9个月出口同比增长21.3%，增量5910.59亿美元。但增长最快、增量最大的并不是炒得不能再炒的新能源汽车、光伏组件和锂电池，而是与AI投资和生产相关的自动数据处理设备及零件和集成电路。前者同比增长54.6%，净增818.33 633.45亿美元；后者同比增长108.1%，净增1566.36亿美元。无论增幅和绝对净增量都令人瞠目结舌。二者合计净增2384.69 2166.86亿美元，占全部出口净增额5910.59亿美元40.3%，远远超过汽车527.40亿美元净增量。毫无疑问，驱动我国出口猛增的主要动力来自AI及其产业链技术与产品。
然而，上述两大类同期进口增长更猛。自动数据处理设备与零件进口同比增长124.8%，净增874.03亿美元；集成电路进口增长63.5%，净增1938.81亿美元。二者合计净增2812.84亿美元，超过这两大类出口净增额（2384.69 2166.86亿美元），也接近超过这两大类加汽车出口净增额之和2912.09 2727.26亿美元。
2026年前9个月，自动数据处理设备及零件、集成电路两大类出口额合计5331.47亿美元，进口额合计6566.67亿美元；逆差1235.2亿美元。因此，AI最主要的相关技术与产品，我国没有产能过剩。
很明显，世界AI投资与建设的勃兴促进了中国出口的迅猛增长；中国AI投资与相关产业链的发展，则促进了进口的更快增长。见下表。
AI 投资推动世界贸易强劲增长
AI推动贸易激增不但是中国现象，也是世界现象。世界贸易组织10月份最新发布的《世界贸易展望与统计》，将2026年世界货物贸易量增长速度从3月份预计的1.9%大幅调高到3.9%，翻了一番。其基本原因是AI投资及相关技术与产品贸易的勃兴。
各大洲中，亚洲表现最为突出，其次北美，再次南美，欧洲最差。2027年北美减慢，南美平稳，欧洲略回升，亚洲虽减慢，仍明显领先于其他各大洲。见下表。
各大类产品比较，贸易额增长幅度差距极为明显。与AI相关的技术与产品贸易呈爆炸性增长；燃料、矿产、制成品和其他机械较快，钢铁、化工、纺织品和服装则微增长或负增长。见下表。
上表显示，AI投资和应用的勃兴，促使自动办公和通信设备、电子元器件（集成电路等）贸易出现爆炸性增长。2023年前，这一大类产品出口增速与其他大类基本相同。2024年增速加快到16%，2025年加快到31%，2026年上半年加快到67%。其占世界货物出口的比重，2016-2023年平均为7-8%，2026年上半年达到14.8%，差不多翻了一番。
AI勃兴带动下，世界主要板块贸易发展新的不平衡
在AI及相关技术投资强劲推动下，北美、亚太和欧洲三大板块贸易发展发展差异甚大，呈现新的不平衡。亚太出口最为强劲，北美次之，但美国进口更为强劲；欧洲疲软。
（一） 亚太出口猛增
除上述中国出口和进口双双强劲外，日本出口转增，韩国、台湾出口暴增，东南亚诸国出口强势增长。
日本2026财政年度上半年（2026年4-9月）出口同比大幅增长8.4%，达到63.64万亿日元，为1979年以来最快增长。
韩国前9个月出口8145亿美元，超过2025年全年（7093亿美元），全年突破万亿美元板上钉钉。出口强劲主要来自AI相关技术和产品拉动。前8个月出口增长中，AI和IT相关产品出口同比暴增170%，贡献了2812亿美元增量。
中国台湾2026年前7个月出口达到4919.5亿美元，同比增长44.7%；贸易顺差1146亿美元，同比增长63.5%。预计2026年台湾GDP增速将达到12.16%，其中出口贡献5.53个百分点。
今年来东盟越南、马来西亚、泰国、印尼出口同比增幅都在30%以上，AI及相关IT产品出口猛增是主要因素。
（二） 美国进出口均较快增长，逆差急剧扩大
据美国商务部公布，2026年前8个月，美国货物出口同比增长15.0%，进口增长4.5%。但主要原因是2025年上半年抢在关税实施前突击进口抬高基数所致。7、8两个月单月进口同比增幅分别达到15.4%和28.4%。
美国以AI相关的IT高技术产品（ATP）出口，2026年前8个月同比增长17.6%，主要源自对欧盟出口猛增；进口则增长31.9%，主要来自从墨西哥、中国台湾、韩国和马来西亚进口剧增，增幅分别达到62.2%、72.7%、154.9%和72.3%；其次日本，17.6%。结果逆差从去年同期的2590.89亿美元剧增到3922.20亿美元，增长79.0%，净增1331.31亿美元。
美国ATP贸易逆差主要来源是：台湾1402.22亿美元，墨西哥580.68亿美元，韩国329.70亿美元，马来西亚239.85亿美元，其次日本69.7亿美元。对中国逆差只有17.59亿美元。
值得注意的是，美国对欧盟的ATP贸易平衡，已从去年同期的逆差716.55亿美元转为顺差3.48亿美元。
（三） 欧盟：进出口微增，基本处于局外
2026年7月欧盟对区外出口2471亿欧元，同比增长7.8%，进口2391亿欧元，增长9.1%。顺差80亿欧元。AI及相关产品贸易基本不具优势。对美ATP贸易转为逆差，对华贸易逆差扩大。正如黄仁勋最近在德国对默茨总理所言，德国曾在科学上领先世界，但现在落后于世界科技发展。英伟达并决定在德国进行10亿欧元AI投资。
中国全球贸易平衡板块新格局
上述变化，直接带来我国对全球不同板块贸易平衡新格局的形成。
2026年前三季度上述亚太、北美和欧洲贸易业绩的明显差异，直接带来我国进出口贸易中亚太比重上升，北美和欧洲下降。见下表。
上表显示：
第一， 出口方面，中国对RCEP伙伴出口增幅超过对全球增速5个百分点，相当于对美出口增速2.7倍，比对欧盟出口增速高10.3个百分点。出口绝对额占对全球出口总额29.0%，超过对美国和欧盟出口之和比重（24.7%）；
第二， 进口方面，中国从RCEP进口同比增速达到惊人的38.3%，七倍于从美国或欧盟进口增速。其中从AI相关技术和产品占优势的韩国和日本进口分别猛增75.4%和26.1%，从我国台湾进口猛增27.8%。从澳大利亚进口激增四成，主要构成来自资源性产品。值得注意的是从越南、印尼、新加坡三国进口增速达到惊人的52.4%、36.3%和47.1%。这表明中国与东盟供应链双向互补和一体化日益加深。
第三， 我国虽然对全球拥有9381.12亿美元顺差，并在欧盟和美国引起无穷责难和各种限制。但这不是我全球贸易平衡的全部。我与东盟10个有2611.77亿美元顺差，但对日韩澳新四国合计有1838.38亿美元逆差，与RCEP14国合计，顺差仅773.39亿美元。如果加上我国台湾，则有540.37亿美元逆差。对美巨额顺差主要源于产业分工和我比较优势；美国虽然在AI创新和投资上遥遥领先，但产业化落后，产品生产大量依靠外包。对欧盟巨额顺差一个基本原因则是欧盟AI相
关技术和产业严重滞后，对我出口缺乏增长点。相反，亚太国家和地区AI投资和产业发展迅速，我与其贸易基本平衡。
简短的结论：2026年以来中国进出口的强劲增长，是世界AI及相关技术产品投资勃兴带动全球贸易急剧加速的一部分，不是“产能过剩”叙事方式所能解释。因为增长最猛烈的AI相关IT产品进口比出口增长更快。
AI投资及相关产品贸易的猛增，带来全球贸易新的不平衡。美国虽为全球AI领先，但相关产品制造外包程度高，反而进口增长更快；欧盟AI发展明显落后，因此出口缺乏增长点；亚太是全球AI相关产品供应高地，在本轮世界贸易勃兴中最为突出。与此相应，中国对美欧有巨大顺差，但与RCEP成员贸易基本平衡。（作者 | 何伟文，中国国际贸易学会常务理事，全球化智库高级研究员）
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Introduction: China's strong growth in exports and imports since 2026 is part of a sharp acceleration in global trade driven by the boom in investment in the world's AI and related technology products, not explained by the narrative of “overcapacity”. Because imports of AI-related IT products, which are growing most strongly, are growing faster than exports.
The surge in AI investment and trade in related products has created new imbalances in global trade. While the United States is the global leader in AI, the high degree of outsourcing of related products has led to faster import growth; the lack of growth points for exports as a result of the apparent underdevelopment of EUAI; and the Asia-Pacific region, where the global supply of AI-related products is high, is most prominent in the current round of world trade boom. Accordingly, China had a large surplus for the United States and Europe but had a basic trade balance with the RCEP members.
In 2025, China had a surplus of over trillion dollars in goods trade, and the US and Europe blamed me for a wave of attacks. The presidential statement issued at the recent meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bankers in Florida accused China of creating imbalances in the world economy as a result of its large trade surplus. The first nine months of 2026 saw a further acceleration of trade growth, with exports and imports increasing by 21.3 per cent and 27.5 per cent, respectively. The month of September accelerated further to a 36.3 per cent increase in exports and a 31.0 per cent increase in imports, reaching an unprecedented peak of $13,353 million in the trade surplus, equivalent to $1.6 trillion per year. This has caused further panic in the US and Europe. The European Union claimed that the dialogue trade deficit amounted to 1 billion euros a day and had introduced a series of trade restrictions and planned to impose stricter ones. The common denominator of their accusations is that China ' s large trade surplus comes from industrial subsidies, resulting in excess capacity.
AI investment and industrialization boosted China ' s trade surge
In the first nine months of 2026, exports grew by 21.3 per cent over the same period, increasing by $59.159 billion. But the fastest-growing and most incremental are not new energy vehicles, photovoltaic components and lithium batteries that can no longer be fired, but automated data-processing equipment and spare parts and integrated circuits associated with AI investment and production. The former represents an increase of 54.6 per cent over the same period and a net increase of $8,833,345 million, while the latter represents an increase of 108.1 per cent over the same period and a net increase of $15,6636 million. Both the increase and the absolute net increase are alarming. The combined net increase of $23,849,692,686 million represents 40.3 per cent of the total net increase in exports of $59,1.059 million, far exceeding the net increase of $52,740 million for motor vehicles. There is no doubt that the main driving force behind the surge in our exports is AI and its industrial chain technologies and products.
However, imports in both categories increased more sharply during the same period. Imports of automated data-processing equipment increased by 124.8 per cent over the same period, with a net increase of $87,403 million, while imports of integrated circuits increased by 63.5 per cent, with a net increase of $19,3881 million. The combined net increase of $28,128.4 million exceeded the net increase in these two categories of exports ($238,699,21.686 billion) and was close to surpassing the net increase in these two categories plus the net increase in motor vehicles ($291,092,722.6 million).
In the first nine months of 2026, exports of automated data-processing equipment and spare parts and integrated circuits totalled $53,3147 million, while imports totalled $65,667 million; the deficit was $12,352 million. As a result, AI ' s most relevant technologies and products do not have excess capacity.
It is clear that the boom in world AI investment and construction has contributed to the rapid growth of Chinese exports, while the development of Chinese AI investment and related industrial chains has contributed to faster import growth. See table below.
AI Strong growth in world trade driven by investment
The surge in trade promoted by AI is not only a Chinese phenomenon but also a world phenomenon. The World Trade Organization ' s latest publish World Trade Outlook and Statistics in October doubled the growth rate of world trade in 2026 from the 1.9 per cent projected in March to 3.9 per cent. The underlying cause was the growth of AI investment and trade in related technologies and products.
Asia is the most prominent of all continents, followed by North America, again South America and Europe. The slowdown in North America in 2027, the stabilization of South America and a slight recovery in Europe, while slowing in Asia, is still clearly ahead of other continents. See table below.
Differences in the magnitude of the increase in the volume of trade are evident in comparison with the major categories of products. Trade in AI-related technologies and products grew explosively; fuel, minerals, manufactured goods and other machinery grew faster, while steel, chemicals, textiles and clothing grew slightly or negatively. See table below.
The above table shows that the growth of AI investments and applications has led to explosive growth in trade in automated office and communications equipment, electronic devices (integrated circuits, etc.). By 2023, exports of this large group of products grew at essentially the same rate as other large groups. Growth accelerated to 16 per cent in 2024, 31 per cent in 2025 and 67 per cent in the first half of 2026. Its share of world merchandise exports averaged 7-8 per cent in 2016-2023, reaching 14.8 per cent in the first half of 2026, almost doubling.
New imbalances in the development of the world ' s major sectors of trade, driven by the AI boom
Strongly driven by AI and investment in related technologies, the three major segments of trade development in North America, Asia and the Pacific and Europe have varied significantly and have emerged as new imbalances. Asia-Pacific exports were the strongest, followed by North America, but United States imports were stronger; Europe was weak.
(i) Rapid increase in Asia-Pacific exports
In addition to the above-mentioned strong exports and imports of China, Japan's exports increased, South Korea and Taiwan surged, and South-East Asian exports increased strongly.
Japan ' s exports in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (April-September 2026) increased significantly by 8.4 per cent over the same period, reaching 63.64 trillion yen, the fastest growth since 1979.
The Republic of Korea exported $814.5 billion in the first nine months, more than the entire year of 2025 ($709.3 billion), breaking the trillion mark throughout the year. The strong export performance was mainly driven by AI-related technologies and products. In the first eight months of export growth, exports of AI and IT-related products increased by 170 per cent over the same period, contributing $28.12 billion.
Taiwan's exports in the first seven months of 2026 amounted to $49.95 billion, an increase of 44.7 per cent over the same period; the trade surplus was $114.6 billion, an increase of 63.5 per cent over the same period. Taiwan ' s GDP growth is expected to reach 12.16 per cent in 2026, with an export contribution of 5.53 percentage points.
Exports from ASEAN Viet Nam, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia increased by more than 30 per cent each year, with the surge in exports of AI and related IT products being the main factor.
(ii) United States exports and imports are growing faster and the deficit is widening sharply
According to the United States Department of Commerce, during the first eight months of 2026, United States exports of goods increased by 15.0 per cent and imports by 4.5 per cent over the same period. However, the main reason for this was the pre-tariff escalation campaign in the first half of 2025. Imports increased by 15.4 per cent and by 28.4 per cent, respectively, in the same month for 7 and 8 months.
Exports of AI-related IT high-technology products (ATP) from the United States increased by 17.6 per cent each year in the first eight months of 2026, mainly from the surge in exports to the European Union; imports rose by 31.9 per cent, mainly from the surge in imports from Mexico, Taiwan, China, the Republic of Korea and Malaysia, which increased by 62.2 per cent, 72.7 per cent, 154.9 per cent and 72.3 per cent, respectively; followed by Japan, by 17.6 per cent. As a result, the deficit increased sharply to $39,2.220 billion, from $25,989 million during the same period last year, an increase of 79.0 per cent and a net increase of $13,311 million.
The main sources of the ATP trade deficit in the United States were $14,222 million for Taiwan, $5,068 million for Mexico, $32,970 million for Korea, $23,985 million for Malaysia and $6.97 billion for Japan. The deficit against China was only $1,759 million.
It is noteworthy that the United States trade balance with the EU has shifted from a deficit of $71,655 million over the same period last year to a surplus of $348 million.
(iii) EU: Imports and exports have increased slightly and are largely out of reach
In July 2026, EU exports outside the region increased by 7.8 per cent over the same period and imports by 23.9 billion euros, or 9.1 per cent. A surplus of 8 billion euros. Trade in AI and related products has little advantage. Trade to the US-ATP has turned into a deficit, and trade to China has widened. As Hoang In-hoon recently said to Chancellor Metz in Germany, Germany was a world leader in science, but now lags behind world technological development. In Weida decided to invest 1 billion euros in Germany.
China ' s New Global Trade Balance
These changes have led directly to the emergence of a new pattern of trade balance in our country across the globe.
The apparent differences in trade performance between Asia and the Pacific, North America and Europe noted above in the first three quarters of 2026 have directly contributed to an increase in the share of Asia and the Pacific in our export and import trade and a decline in North America and Europe. See table below.
The above table shows:
First, with regard to exports, China ' s exports to its RCEP partners increased by more than 5 percentage points globally, equivalent to 2.7 times the growth in exports to the United States and 10.3 percentage points more than exports to the European Union. Exports in absolute terms accounted for 29.0 per cent of total global exports, exceeding the sum of exports to the United States and the European Union (24.7 per cent);
Secondly, with regard to imports, China ' s imports from the RCEP grew at an alarming rate of 38.3 per cent in comparison to the same year, seven times faster than imports from the United States or the European Union. Of these, imports from Korea and Japan, which dominated AI-related technologies and products, increased by 75.4 per cent and 26.1 per cent, respectively, and from Taiwan by 27.8 per cent. Imports from Australia increased by 40 per cent, mainly from resource-based products. It is noteworthy that imports from Viet Nam, Indonesia and Singapore increased at an alarming rate of 52.4 per cent, 36.3 per cent and 47.1 per cent. This reflects the growing complementarity and integration of China ' s supply chain with ASEAN.
Thirdly, although my country has a global surplus of $93,812 million, it has caused untold blame and restrictions in the EU and the United States. But this is not the whole balance of my global trade. I have a surplus of $26,177 million with 10 ASEAN countries, but a deficit of $18,383 million with Japan, Austro-AZone and only $77,339 million with RCEP14. If my country, Taiwan, were added, there would be a deficit of $54.037 billion. The large surplus for the United States stems mainly from the division of labour in industry and from my comparative advantage; while the United States is far ahead in AI innovation and investment, it is lagging behind in industry and is heavily dependent on outsourcing for product production. One of the basic reasons for the large surplus for the EU is the EUAi.
Technology and industry lag seriously, and there is a lack of growth point for my exports. On the contrary, Asia-Pacific countries and regions are experiencing rapid growth in AI investment and industry, and I have a basic trade balance with them.
A brief conclusion: China’s strong growth in exports and imports since 2026 is part of a sharp acceleration in global trade driven by the boom in investment in the world’s AI and related technology products, and is not explained by the “overcapacity” narrative. Because imports of AI-related IT products, which are growing most strongly, are growing faster than exports.
The surge in AI investment and trade in related products has created new imbalances in global trade. While the United States is the global leader in AI, the high degree of outsourcing of related products has led to faster import growth; the lack of growth points for exports as a result of the apparent underdevelopment of EUAI; and the Asia-Pacific region, where the global supply of AI-related products is high, is most prominent in the current round of world trade boom. Accordingly, China had a large surplus for the United States and Europe but had a basic trade balance with the RCEP members. (author Hu Wei Wei Wen, Senior Fellow, Globalizing Think Tank, Managing Director, China Society for International Trade)
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